Is there a better line?

[ahydra]

Cross-IMPs, nobody is vul

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s43hajt6da853cak3&n=skq75h54dkj972c84&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=ppp1cp1dp1np3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

System is 5cM with a weak NT, so 1NT showed 15-16. West leads the C6 (4th best) on which East plays the ten. Is there a better line than relying on West having the SA, so winning, playing a spade towards the KQ (repeating via the DA if ducked) and later establishing at least four tricks in diamonds?

 

Thanks,

 

ahydra

[FelicityR]

Ducking the first trick is de rigueur surely? Ok, the overwhelming probability is that the defenders will continue ♣s but it will give you a slightly better count of the hands.

[JanisW]

Ducking the first trick is de rigueur surely? Ok, the overwhelming probability is that the defenders will continue ♣s but it will give you a slightly better count of the hands.

 

That's actually not so clear. ♠ migth be 2-2-4-5 and if East ducks your 1st Spade Honour and takes the second, he migth be able to run 4 ♠ tricks. Which means you need to not have given away the ♣ and hope for ♦ to break.

 

I considered lines where I take the repeated ♥-Finesse, to establish 2 ♥-tricks, but I'm not sure if that line is really better, because if ♦ break, I don't need it and if they don't I'll have to give away the leed 3 times, instead of 2.

 

I think I would like to know if the ♦ come home first. Because if they do, there is a 100% line, by leading towards my ♠-honours, and if they don't I might get a clue if I should try ♠ or ♥. If ♦Q and ♠A are with East I might have to go for the repeated ♥-Finesse before I concede the lead to East twice

 

J8,Kxxx,x,QJx6x with West and AT9xx,Qxx,QTx,Tx with East

With this layout, leading towards the ♠-honours is fatal and the repeated ♥-Finesse should make...

 

Tough one

 

regards

JW

[bravejason]

My plan would be to duck the club lead. Cash the DA. Finesse DJ. If it wins, finesse the HJ. When the diamonds are set up and before all the other stoppers are played, play to or lead the SK to set up the SQ. Fundamentally, I’m working to win 2 club tricks, 4 or 5 diamond tricks, 1 or 2 heart tricks, and 1 spade trick. I’m at a loss for a good plan if west has no diamonds.

[Winstonm]

I toyed with the idea of leading a spade to the K, then, if that held, switching to a heart. But, assuming the diamonds do not come in, a heart cannot be lost early as that establishes the 5th defensive trick by way of 2 clubs (presumably 4-4), 1 heart, 1 diamond, and the spade ace. I think I am with the original declarer on this that spade onside gives the best chance if the diamonds do not behave.