Your next move please!

[bluerib]

Sorry for being absent for a long time. Thank you very much for so many comments and observations. The whole board is as shown below. Note that 1NT opening is 15-17 HCPs; the rebid of 1NT promises 12 ~ 14 HCPs; the 2S by South just means to force partner to bid again, or whatever he may misunderstand; the jump to 4♥ promises very good support with 3 cards only (since with 4 cards, the first rebid should not be 1NT); the response of 5♠ to 4NT promises 5 key-cards, including the Q of ♥. Although you have only 15 HCPs, but you can count (somewhat optimistically) 4 tricks in ♥, 2 tricks in ♠, 3 or 4 tricks in ♦, 1 or 2 tricks in ♣. So, even with 50%, you land on 6NT!

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sa9ha632dqj94ca97&w=sj85432ht85dkck85&n=skt6hkq4dat76cjt2&e=sq7hj97d8532cq643&d=w&v=e&b=16&a=p1dp1hp1np2sp4hp4np5sp6nppp]399|300[/hv]

[Cyberyeti]

Sorry for being absent for a long time. Thank you very much for so many comments and observations. The whole board is as shown below. Note that 1NT opening is 15-17 HCPs; the rebid of 1NT promises 12 ~ 14 HCPs; the 2S by South just means to force partner to bid again, or whatever he may misunderstand; the jump to 4♥ promises very good support with 3 cards only (since with 4 cards, the first rebid should not be 1NT); the response of 5♠ to 4NT promises 5 key-cards, including the Q of ♥. Although you have only 15 HCPs, but you can count (somewhat optimistically) 4 tricks in ♥, 2 tricks in ♠, 3 or 4 tricks in ♦, 1 or 2 tricks in ♣. So, even with 50%, you land on 6NT!

 

 

Forget the idea that this is 50%, you need the diamond finesse, hearts 3-3 and one of the club honours onside so it's in the teens%.

 

You got lucky in a terrible contract, 6♦ is much better but still below odds, and look how bad it is if partner doesn't have 10♣ or 10♦. Without 10♠ 9 tricks could easily be the limit in NT.

[Tramticket]

Although you have only 15 HCPs, but you can count (somewhat optimistically) 4 tricks in ♥, 2 tricks in ♠, 3 or 4 tricks in ♦, 1 or 2 tricks in ♣. So, even with 50%, you land on 6NT!

 

Sorry bluerib, but you are still not getting it.

 

As South you have an absolutely obvious raise of 1NT to 3NT. Your rather strange sequence (I've no idea what the 2♠ bid was supposed to mean) has propelled you to a slam that is very low odds to succeed.

- Hearts - you seem to think that you can can count 4 tricks in hearts - but over 64% of the time hearts will fail to break 3-3.

- Spades - you seem to think that you can can count 2 tricks in spades - but you need partner to have the ♠K. Why can't have the ♠Q instead (still within the 12-14 range).

- Diamonds - you seem to think that you can can count 3 or 4 tricks in diamonds, which is presumably dependent on the success or failure of the diamond finesse - but you need all four AND you also need the diamonds to break 3-2 or find the ♦10, unless you are lucky enough to find it in partner's hand.

- Clubs - you seem to think that you can can count 1 or 2 tricks in clubs - but you need two tricks, which might be possible since you are lucky enough to find partner with the ♣10 to bolster his jack and give you the chance of a double finesse. Even then it might fail if West has both missing honours.

 

I don't wish to dampen your enthusiasm but this is really a poor slam (Sfi's estimate of 14% looks about right) even though you found some good cards in partner's hand.

[DozyDom]

This is actually quite an interesting problem, simply because it's so unproblematic.

 

Given the hand and bidding sequence in the OP, I'd raise to 3NT without a second thought. Given it as a single dummy problem, with the N hand included, and... I still raise to 3NT. Given it as a double dummy problem, and knowing the slam is makeable... I still don't bid it. At least one of my regular partners thinks I'm too reckless in slam bidding. The other believes I'm a shifty person. I have no reason to make the former mistrust me in slam auctions for the next two months, and I have even less reason to make the latter believe that I've been sneaking looks at my opponents' hands.