Percentage evaluation

[ramaratnam]

How much chances are there if a balanced hand with 4 points become declarer opposite balance hand of 19 points

[smerriman]

Chances of what? Making 3NT? I find it hard to imagine an auction where a balanced hand with 4 HCP becomes declarer in 3NT..

[barmar]

Maybe he meant "what are the chances of a player with 4 points becoming declarer opposite a balanced 19 points?"

 

It can easily happen if an opponents opens or overcalls and partner doubles.

[nekthen]

Perhaps people should take the time to review the question they ask, to make sure it makes sense. They should also check that a reasonable reader could only see one meaning to the question.

[tritonium]

Why would anyone care?

[Byte Wyse]

Perhaps people should take the time to review the question they ask, to make sure it makes sense. They should also check that a reasonable reader could only see one meaning to the question.

 

New rule ... no posting while drunk <_<

[barmar]

Perhaps people should take the time to review the question they ask, to make sure it makes sense. They should also check that a reasonable reader could only see one meaning to the question.

The OP is from India. Perhaps people should appreciate that English may not be his native language, and he's doing the best he can.

[kenberg]

The OP is from India. Perhaps people should appreciate that English may not be his native language, and he's doing the best he can.

 

Agreed. We can speculate with various interpretations.

 

For example, is a 5=3=3=2 hand balanced? Say he holds a 19 count, opens 1S and responder has a flat hand with an Ace. I tend to pass but many respond 1NT. So 1S - 1NT - 2NT - Pass. That's a possibility. Or, of that's not flat enough for opener maybe it's 1D - 1NT - 2NT. Again I don't much care for the 1NT call on a flat hand with an Ace, but it happens. Maybe an A and two tens?

 

If instead he is asking about the chances of making, say making 2NT on one of these auctions, my thinking is that the chances are not very good. I would not regard this as a percentage problem except maybe as a percentage we get by surveying hands where it has actually happened.

 

I guess it does not happen often, and when it does happen declarer tends to go down,

[Winstonm]

I would think the only time this could happen is when the 19 point hand opens a forcing club and the response is 1D and that is opener's suit or when a 1NT opener shows a minimum on a super accept transfer and responder rebids his suit. Very low probabilities, probably less than 1% of the time.

[steve2005]

I think he want to know odds of making 3N. Who would care of odds of weak hand playing it which has to be pretty small unless NT is your negative response.

[RD350LC]

Chances of what? Making 3NT? I find it hard to imagine an auction where a balanced hand with 4 HCP becomes declarer in 3NT..

I can see this in a couple of ways. One would be responding 1NT to a 1♠ opener with just an ace-and then be raised to 3NT.

Another way is responding 1NT to a takeout double with a balanced 4 hcp (though I would not do it, some people would), and then be raised to 3 NT.