Your Lead vs 1N

[jgillispie]

http://tinyurl.com/y8n78p9j

 

Your lead at T1 is?

[steve2005]

A club is the obvious lead.

On a good day hearts might work.

A diamond might work, but more likely is a typical Gib horrible lead.

[ahydra]

[hv=pc=n&n=sq5hat754dj97ck73&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=ppp1dp1hp1sp1nppp]133|200[/hv]

 

Ugh. Am I allowed to fake a heart attack?

 

Failing that, I guess I'd lead a club as it's the least of evils. (So I guess that would be a club attack.)

 

ahydra

[Phil]

Annoying, but GIB probably led the ♠Q.

[pes_6]

♣7

[nekthen]

I go for hearts declarer can easily be qxxx

[Tramticket]

Annoying, but GIB probably led the ♠Q.

 

Dummy's second suit is often a good choice, but fortunately you are allowed to look at your hand as well as the auction :) and a spade is much too active.

 

I probably lead a club (particularly at match points), but only as a "least bad" response.

[awm]

I wouldn’t lead a club; it’s not unusual for declarers clubs to be longer/better than hearts here. I’d go with a heart, hoping to find partner with Hxx or the like.

 

Spade queen could work, but given that my partners overcall 1S aggressively at NV partner probably doesn’t have five of them (or a very strong four).

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

I would go with a club, I would need a better heart suit, lets add the jack, instead of the 4,

than heart is clear cut.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[subbaroow]

[hv=pc=n&n=sq5hat754dj97ck73&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=ppp1dp1hp1sp1nppp]133|200[/hv]

 

Ugh. Am I allowed to fake a heart attack?

 

Failing that, I guess I'd lead a club as it's the least of evils. (So I guess that would be a club attack.)

 

ahydra

[subbaroow]

h-5

[LJMadsen]

Sp Q. Dummy has 4 spades. Declarer and partner have 7 together. Partner probably at least 4.

Club from Kxx is likely to help declarer with the unbid suit.

[pigpenz]

ran it through Lead Captain

9♦-23.50%

J♦-23.21%

7♦-22.77%

Q♠-20.77%

 

cooked up 6,000 hands

[ahydra]

ran it through Lead Captain

9♦-23.50%

J♦-23.21%

7♦-22.77%

Q♠-20.77%

 

cooked up 6,000 hands

 

And what about a heart or club?

 

ahydra

[tritonium]

I might lead a diamond, dummy's first bid suit.

[Cyberyeti]

I would lead a heart, if I lead a club, declarer will have 4 hearts and 5 or 6 clubs, diamond looks a bad holding to lead from, otherwise I very often would lead one.

[Tramticket]

I might lead a diamond, dummy's first bid suit.

 

This might be influenced by your opponents' methods. Would they bid Pass, 1♦; 1♥, 1NT with a balanced hand containing four spades? In which case the auction Pass, 1♦; 1♥, 1♠ will presumably suggest a five-card suit and leading a diamond is less attractive.

 

On the other hand, if Pass, 1♦; 1♥, 1♠ is likely to be a weak NT type hand with 4-4 in spades and diamonds then a diamond lead becomes a better proposition.

 

But ♦J97 is a pretty unattractive holding to lead away from.

 

 

ran it through Lead Captain

9♦-23.50%

J♦-23.21%

7♦-22.77%

Q♠-20.77%

 

cooked up 6,000 hands

 

What assumptions did you make? In particular did you assume a five-card or four-card diamond suit in dummy?

[msjennifer]

Heart 7 or 5 as per partnership understanding.

[pigpenz]

This might be influenced by your opponents' methods. Would they bid Pass, 1♦; 1♥, 1NT with a balanced hand containing four spades? In which case the auction Pass, 1♦; 1♥, 1♠ will presumably suggest a five-card suit and leading a diamond is less attractive.

 

On the other hand, if Pass, 1♦; 1♥, 1♠ is likely to be a weak NT type hand with 4-4 in spades and diamonds then a diamond lead becomes a better proposition.

 

But ♦J97 is a pretty unattractive holding to lead away from.

 

 

 

 

What assumptions did you make? In particular did you assume a five-card or four-card diamond suit in dummy?

I set up constraints for what I thought were indicated by the auction, which I cant remember for sure what they were

 

but send me your constraints for what you think dummy and declarer should be and I would be glad to run it for you.

 

in 0-13 per suit & hcp range for each hand

[awm]

The most likely shapes are 3433 for declarer and 4243 for opener if you assume partner has a decent hand (which you need in order to set).

 

The reason is that partner would overcall 1♠ with five and a decent hand. So that marks partner with four spades and declarer three. Since declarer has a pretty bad hand (since partner has a good hand) he could have passed 1♠ with three and didn’t. With any doubleton he’d be likely to pass, so 3433 is a favorite. If partner has six clubs he would surely bid, even with 4135/4225 he might bid as a NV passed hand. So it’s likely partner has only four clubs, which gives opener three. Opener could be 4153 but then partner has 4324 which would often be a takeout double as a passed hand.

 

So if we know the shapes, what to lead? It seems like we should lead one of our seven card fits and that’s either heart or club. It will depend on the honor layout in these suits though.

[pigpenz]

The most likely shapes are 3433 for declarer and 4243 for opener if you assume partner has a decent hand (which you need in order to set).

 

The reason is that partner would overcall 1♠ with five and a decent hand. So that marks partner with four spades and declarer three. Since declarer has a pretty bad hand (since partner has a good hand) he could have passed 1♠ with three and didnt. With any doubleton hed be likely to pass, so 3433 is a favorite. If partner has six clubs he would surely bid, even with 4135/4225 he might bid as a NV passed hand. So its likely partner has only four clubs, which gives opener three. Opener could be 4153 but then partner has 4324 which would often be a takeout double as a passed hand.

 

So if we know the shapes, what to lead? It seems like we should lead one of our seven card fits and thats either heart or club. It will depend on the honor layout in these suits though.

so using your assumptions for the hands

3♣-23.60%

7♣-23.60%

5♥-19.50%

k♣-18.90%

Q♠-18.70%

7♥-18.70%

5♠-18.10%

 

 

then drop off to 16%-10% for rest

 

on another layout the winning lead was the Phil-GIB Q♠ LOL

[rmnka447]

Think a little about the auction.

 

Opener has bid 1 ♦, then 1 ♠, but did not support ♥. 1 ♦ implies ♦ are equal in length or longer than ♣. If opener is opening a 3 card ♦ suit, then opener's major holding is usually 4-4. But opener didn't support ♥ which would be natural if 4-4 in the majors. So it's very likely that opener has at least 4 ♦ and, of course, bid 1 ♠ so has 4 ♠.

 

Responder has bid 1 ♥, then 1 NT. Responder does not have 4 ♠ else a raise to 2 ♠ would be normal. Responder also has not bid 2 ♥ which might well be bid holding 5 ♥ (no surprise). Responder has also not preferenced back to 2 ♦ which might occur if holding 4 ♦.

 

Finally over 1 NT, opener passed, so is unlikely to hold 4 ♣ as 2 ♣ would be normal with a 4-1-4-4 or 4-0-5-4 hand.

 

Partner didn't overcall 1 ♠ which might occur if partner has a modicum of points and 5+ decent ♠. Since you hold 2 ♠ and responder has less than 4, partner has at least 4 ♠. Lacking that overcall by partner, they may pretty puny if holding 5 of them. Partner seems more likely to hold 4 ♠, giving responder 3 ♠.

 

So responder is likely to hold 6 minor cards but not 4 ♦ and the hand could be could be 3-4-3-3 or 3-4-2-4. Occasionally, responder might bid 1 NT with a 3-4-1-5 hand with nothing better to bid.

 

Leading low from 5 ♥ into RHO known 4 card suit doesn't look particularly attractive as it is more likely to give something away. With the lack of a ♠ overcall, ♠ aren't too attractive either. A ♦ lead might be disastrous if opener has 5 ♦. So sort of by default, we come to a ♣ lead. It might be a terrific start if we catch opener and responder with 6 or fewer ♣ between them.

 

I'd be leading ♣ 3.

 

But the important thing is to listen to the bidding especially the bids not made and you can start to form a picture of the opponent's hands.

[pigpenz]

from looking at hands generated, there is only about a 20% chance of beating 1NT

so we are looking at the safest lead to hold 1NT to making(matchpoints)