Who should wield the axe?

[marklaf]

I strongly disagree that 2 diamonds creates a forcing auction. Having said that, I double with that hand--If 4 hearts is making we are already booked for a bad score and if I don't double we cannot protect our plus score.

[miamijd]

I strongly disagree that 2 diamonds creates a forcing auction. Having said that, I double with that hand--If 4 hearts is making we are already booked for a bad score and if I don't double we cannot protect our plus score.

 

How do you know you can make a contract above 3H? In fact, you can't. So once the opponents bid 4H, there is no plus score to protect, unless you think other e/w pairs will sell to 3C and not bid 3H. If the opponents can make 3H and you can't make 4C, you will get a good score for defending 4H. If 3C is the last making contract, then you will set 4H two tricks instead of setting 3H one, again for what should be a pretty good score. If you are playing against good opponents, they likely won't be off more than one at 4H (given that your side has no hope of a game) and might have a make.

 

I'd like to know what the full deal was, because the idea that E/W could ever sell to 3C seems odd to me.

 

Cheers,

mike

[ahydra]

Full deal was:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sat95htdk87ca7543&w=sq643hakj62d96cq8&n=sk82hq8daj432cj92&e=sj7h97543dqt5ckt6&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=p1c(NAT%20or%2015-19%20BAL)1h2d4hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

The frequencies were

 

4HX-2 x1

4D= x1 (no idea how)

3C= x1

4H-2 x3

4HX-1 x1

3HX-1 x1

3H-1 x3

5C-2 x1

5D-2 x1

3H= x1

2S-3 (by South) x1 (wtf)

 

So 4H-2 was surprisingly worth about 60%, but doubling would be 95%. It seems to be pretty unanimous that I (North) should have X'd and I'd agree with that - I think at the time I underestimated the value of the ♠K.

 

ahydra

[Cyberyeti]

4♦= probably happened due to E leading second heart from 5, W thinking it was second from 4, and giving a ruff and discard after declarer played ♣ Ax allowing declarer to discard a club then ruff them good. W thought he was protecting partner's Q♦ and declarer was following

[docbean]

Oviously North is at fault..partner has opened...how is it possible for opps to make 10 tricks with the North hand facing an opener

[marklaf]

If you believe this auction is forcing then South must double--I strongly believe that a 2 diamond response should not be game forcing in this auction--but if your agreement is that it is game forcing then South must double as a pass indicates bidding more is ok. Otherwise in a non forcing auction North must double.

[ahydra]

Oviously North is at fault..partner has opened...how is it possible for opps to make 10 tricks with the North hand facing an opener

 

Move West's diamonds to East in exchange for two clubs. Shape is a powerful thing when backed by a huge trump fit.

 

ahydra

[miamijd]

Full deal was:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sat95htdk87ca7543&w=sq643hakj62d96cq8&n=sk82hq8daj432cj92&e=sj7h97543dqt5ckt6&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=p1c(NAT%20or%2015-19%20BAL)1h2d4hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

The frequencies were

 

4HX-2 x1

4D= x1 (no idea how)

3C= x1

4H-2 x3

4HX-1 x1

3HX-1 x1

3H-1 x3

5C-2 x1

5D-2 x1

3H= x1

2S-3 (by South) x1 (wtf)

 

So 4H-2 was surprisingly worth about 60%, but doubling would be 95%. It seems to be pretty unanimous that I (North) should have X'd and I'd agree with that - I think at the time I underestimated the value of the ♠K.

 

ahydra

 

Thanks for posting the full hand. East made a very bad 4H bid. He has a 3H call, not a 4H call. Anyone who would bid 4H there needs a course in hand evaluation.

 

As I suspected, +100 was a perfectly good score: 60%. Yes, on this hand doubling would get you nearly all the MPs, but against good opponents (a good East would never bid 4H with that pile of junk), 4H will make some of the time. From a pure expected value point of view, you are risking 60% to gain 40%, so you'll need to set it 60% of the time. I suspect you might do that -- barely -- but in the long run that kind of risk isn't worth it unless the field outclasses you and you think you need every possible MP you can get. If you think you are competitive, just take your 60% and move to the next board.

 

Indeed, a many-time Bermuda Bowl winner taught me that in MPs, you just try to get average plus on every board. The tops will come from opponents' mistakes; hopefully, you won't get too many bad fixes. If you have average plus, don't gamble it away for a potential zero unless it's pretty much a sure thing. This one isn't.

 

Cheers,

mike