onaykk Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Hello, I am relatively new in Bridge but I am quite obsessed lately about the claculations and possiblities. I have a problem: Whenever lets say you have 5 H in the bid and you and your partner has 10 H in your hands. Lets say Hands are A Q 8 7 6 5 in your hand and partner is J 10 9 2 . There is K 4 and 3 out. Lets say turn is yours. In this situation hitting A is a better probability that one of the opponents have K or the bigger percentage is trying to go to your partners hand and try to do Empass , and gambling to get K from the one opponent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onaykk Posted February 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 If it is 11/ 2 it is very easy to calculate but 10/3 is very tricky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 If you are missing three cards including the king, they can be distributed in 8 ways:K43-void finesse winsK4-3 finesse winsK3-4 finesse winsK - 34 both win43 - K drop wins 4 - K3 nothing works3 - K4 nothing worksvoid - K43 nothing works So the finesse wins in 4/8 = 50% and the drop in 2/8 = 25%. In fact the drop is slightly better than this because a 2/1 split is a bit more likely than a 3-0 split so it's about 26%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onaykk Posted February 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 2/1 split only changes the odds around %1? That was my main question maybe at least %10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onaykk Posted February 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 But of course Finesse also wins in 1/2 in common at one of the positions so that also decreases. Thanks a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickRW Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 2/1 split only changes the odds around %1? That was my main question maybe at least %10? No, nothing like 10%. 2-1 split = 78%. 6 different distributions = about 13% for a specific case3-0 split = 22%. 2 different distributions = about 11% for a specific case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pescetom Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 No, nothing like 10%. 2-1 split = 78%. 6 different distributions = about 13% for a specific case3-0 split = 22%. 2 different distributions = about 11% for a specific case. Surely those are the odds of finding the K on one specific side in the given case of distribution.I think the OP was looking for the odds of success of the A drop versus finesse. When there are 2 cards out then the A drop is 52% successful versus the finesse 50%.When there are 3 cards out then the A drop is 25.7% successful versus the finess 50%.So the drop is only about half as successful when there are 3 cards out instead of 2, and no longer makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The relative success of a situation depends on thinking about all of the possible lie of the cards (not always easy to calculate) and to go with the play that seems to have the highest chance of success. Note how Helene_T list ALL of the possible lie of the opponents cards to come up with the solution that the finesse is best. One thing to add, do not forget the bidding when making your decision. Lets say you are in 6s (your side has around 28 hcp) and east has opened 1h. That means east is a monster favorite to hold the spade King and taking the finesse becomes a huge probable loser while playing for the drop at least gives you a reasonable chance at making. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onaykk Posted February 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Thanks a lot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 I highly recommend a book titled "Bridge Odds for Practical Players" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pescetom Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I highly recommend a book titled "Bridge Odds for Practical Players" On it's way across the ocean, thanks :D Together with "Card Play Technique or the Art of Being Lucky". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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