Why do we keep getting this wrong in the water cooler?

[y66]

Here's Jonathan Bernstein's take on a topic that frequently comes up in the wc:

 

I really don't understand why it's so hard for some in the BBO water cooler and the media to figure out the score on the parties and federal budget deficits.

 

The U.S. federal budget deficit is going up. That's according to a projection from a group selling (some) anti-deficit policy, but it's not really a surprise, what with a large tax cut just having passed. I'm not a deficit hawk, so I'm not particularly upset by large deficits in the abstract. But I can't understand how Susan Cornwell of Reuters can say this is "a basic shift for the Republican Party, which has traditionally prided itself on fiscal conservatism."

 

Seriously?

 

This is the third time in a row, going back to 1981, that incoming Republican presidents with Republican (or almost-Republican) majority Congresses have come in, slashed taxes, and seen deficits explode. Yes, Republicans like to talk about balanced budgets, but it's been at least 40 years since they acted in favor of them. They're consistent: They cut spending on some programs they don't like, increase spending on programs they do like, and slash taxes. They may not admit that they're following policies that will raise deficits, but it's not exactly difficult to draw that conclusion.

 

They then follow the exact same policies when Democrats have majorities. Perhaps they talk a bit more about deficits, but they advocate exactly the same policies.

 

Democrats tend to be loosely Keynesian; they advocate larger deficits during recessions, and smaller ones during good times. They're also, I think, somewhat less consistent over time, but overall they've been the ones who actually seem to care about paying for what they do. Compare, for example, the unfunded Republican Medicare expansion when George W. Bush was president with the (more or less) fully funded Affordable Care Act passed by Democrats. Yes, there were some budgetary gimmicks in Obamacare, but there were also very real revenues. Which Republicans have been eager to delay or repeal, even when they couldn't also repeal the spending portions of the Affordable Care Act.

 

I'm not saying which is better policy. And I don't really care about how Republicans mischaracterize their own position. I just don't see why, four decades or so in, some reporters still get this wrong.

Bernstein writes for Bloomberg.

[Vampyr]

This:

 

...Republicans mischaracterize their own position.

 

is why I don’t understand your second option.

[kenberg]

What? Someone writing for Bloomberg is writing about posts in the BBO wc? This is like learning my fitbit can be tracked. Except I don't have a fitbit.

 

I don't think he has it wrong, but maybe incomplete.

 

Does he play bridge?

 

I just looked him up and, for the first time ever, tried to follow a twitter back and forth. Whew! I really hope I can continue to live without taking up Twitter.

 

Anyway, a lot of what people say has to be taken with skepticism. The old saw is that when someone starts talking about morality it's time to hide the silverware and lock up your daughter. It seems this could be applied as well to those who talk about deficits. And many other things.

[y66]

This: is why I don’t understand your second option.

Point taken. I added blatantly.

[Winstonm]

I am shocked....shocked to find out politicians are less than scrupulously honest.

[cherdano]

Who is "we"? I am sure there are many things I repeatedly get wrong, but this is not one of them.

[steve2005]

How can you tell a politician is stretching the truth? Their lips are moving,

[y66]

Who is "we"? I am sure there are many things I repeatedly get wrong, but this is not one of them.

Not just you apparently. Clearly, I misjudged. Forgive me.

[barmar]

What? Someone writing for Bloomberg is writing about posts in the BBO wc? This is like learning my fitbit can be tracked. Except I don't have a fitbit.

Found the link to the original article:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-01-30/how-do-we-keep-getting-the-deficit-so-wrong

 

Of course, the first line doesn't actually mention the WC, it just says "some in the media".

 

I suppose we know that politicians are frequently hypocritical, advocating one position and then doing something else. But it does seem like they're most consistently inconsistent on this aspect of fiscal policy. They're more consistent on other issues like gun control, and abortion rights -- you don't hear much about pro-life politicians pushing pro-choice legislation. They don't always get their way, but they don't seem to push for things opposite their party's claimed position.

[barmar]

As for why the GOP claims to be fiscally conservative, isn't it kind of their central position? They're the party of limited government.

 

But general principles can't always be applied to specific situations. The real truth is that spending is "excessive" if it's for things you don't like, it's "necessary" if it's for things you do like. If you believe that the free market solves everything, regulations are excessive, and the budgets of regulatory agencies need to be cut. But you can still believe that national defense is critical and we need to spend more on the military.