A tough 3NT

[lamford]

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Matchpoints.

 

West leads a second-from-bad-suits ♠7. How do you play?

[LBengtsson]

♣J trick 2. if east has qx or kx this might make 9 tricks........also, other line, more guess, trick 2 is ♦4 toward closed hand. might fool defender

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=skqj4haq5d9763ca4&n=sahk86dj54cjt8765&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1n(15-17)p3nppp]266|200|

Matchpoints.

West leads a second-from-bad-suits ♠7. How do you play?[/hv]

Intriguing and confusing. We await the views of Fluffy and Mr Ace, with interest.

 

I'm unsure of the best line but guess it might depend on the quality of the defence. The main chance seems to be to win ♠A and run ♣J. If ♣J is covered, then finesse ♣8. You hope that RHO has ♣K, ♣Q, ♣K3, ♣K2, ♣Q3, ♣Q2, ♣KQ, ♣KQ3, ♣KQ2, or ♣KQ32 (about 30%).

 

Against best defence, perhaps, you might rely solely on this ♣ chance.

 

At single-dummy, however, If ♣J loses to an honour on the first round and defenders continue ♠s then you could try leading a ♦ towards ♦J, hoping for a favourable ♦ distribution (about 46% provided South leads the 1st ♦). This might lose the contract, when ♦s lie badly and ♣s lie favourably.

[Winstonm]

I wonder if there is a benefit to playing on diamonds first in case LHO has KQx of clubs plus AKQ of diamonds?

[Winstonm]

I wonder if there is a benefit to playing on diamonds first in case LHO has KQx of clubs plus AKQ of diamonds? After all, he did make a passive lead.

[MrAce]

I wonder if there is a benefit to playing on diamonds first in case LHO has KQx of clubs plus AKQ of diamonds? After all, he did make a passive lead.

 

Benefits of playing diamonds first is not limited to this. (It is fantasy anyway to expect W to hold AKQ diamonds and not to have led it ) But if we decide to play diamonds first, it may be better to play towards J or to play the J from dummy if we are concerned about ♥ splits.

[Winstonm]

Benefits of playing diamonds first is not limited to this. (It is fantasy anyway to expect W to hold AKQ diamonds and not to have led it ) But if we decide to play diamonds first, it may be better to play towards J or to play the J from dummy if we are concerned about ♥ splits.

 

The issue looks to me to prevent RHO from obtaining the lead when he holds xx in clubs. But if we are looking for a genuine play against best defense (RHO rising with any diamond honor to swtich to a club), we have to either choose to play RHO for honor doubleton in clubs or LHO to hold AKQ of diamonds. If RHO happens to hold Qx or Kx of clubs, we should have led the J of clubs at trick 2. :D With suck limited entries, it looks to me like playing for club honor doubleon on the right is the best chance.

[lamford]

The issue looks to me to prevent RHO from obtaining the lead when he holds xx in clubs. But if we are looking for a genuine play against best defense (RHO rising with any diamond honor to swtich to a club), we have to either choose to play RHO for honor doubleton in clubs or LHO to hold AKQ of diamonds. If RHO happens to hold Qx or Kx of clubs, we should have led the J of clubs at trick 2. :D With suck limited entries, it looks to me like playing for club honor doubleon on the right is the best chance.

I agree that against God and Angel Gabriel (and seasonal greetings to all BBO members) playing the jack of clubs at trick two might be a whisker better. But we live in the real world. If you lead the jack of diamonds from dummy, you will in practice succeed in all 3-3 diamond breaks and you will still succeed in some favourable club layouts such as KQ doubleton or stiff club honour when they cannot (or don't) cash four diamonds because the ten comes down in two rounds. On the actual hand, East had to put in the king from ♦KTx and his partner had to unblock the queen from ♦AQx. Now East had to lead a low club from ♣Q9x and his partner had to cash the king of clubs when in with the ace of diamonds. G and AG would manage that, but I think that playing the jack of diamonds is perhaps 10% better than the club play in practice. With Hxx opposite HHT in diamonds they could not beat you.

[Winstonm]

I agree that against God and Angel Gabriel (and seasonal greetings to all BBO members) playing the jack of clubs at trick two might be a whisker better. But we live in the real world. If you lead the jack of diamonds from dummy, you will in practice succeed in all 3-3 diamond breaks and you will still succeed in some favourable club layouts such as KQ doubleton or stiff club honour when they cannot (or don't) cash four diamonds because the ten comes down in two rounds. On the actual hand, East had to put in the king from ♦KTx and his partner had to unblock the queen from ♦AQx. Now East had to lead a low club from ♣Q9x and his partner had to cash the king of clubs when in with the ace of diamonds. G and AG would manage that, but I think that playing the jack of diamonds is perhaps 10% better than the club play in practice. With Hxx opposite HHT in diamonds they could not beat you.

 

Thanks.

 

I understand there is a significant difference in real play from posted hands so when answering it is tough to tell if the point of the hand is a double-dummy type analysis or a real world challenge. :)

 

Rising second hand is always difficult, but there are two hints here: the 7 of spades lead suggests card in other suits and then there is this question: why hasn't declarer played on his long suit?

 

Granted, these are only bare hints but it does steer to the best defense, but even then, very difficult to find at the table.

[lamford]

Rising second hand is always difficult, but there are two hints here: the 7 of spades lead suggests card in other suits and then there is this question: why hasn't declarer played on his long suit?

 

Granted, these are only bare hints but it does steer to the best defense, but even then, very difficult to find at the table.

Flying with ♦ATx and partner unblocking with ♦KQx might be the most difficult to find; it would be ludicrous (to unblock) if declarer had ♦T9xx. And many club switches do not beat it anyway.

[Winstonm]

Flying with ♦ATx and partner unblocking with ♦KQx might be the most difficult to find; it would be ludicrous (to unblock) if declarer had ♦T9xx. And many club switches do not beat it anyway.

 

My initial thought on this hand was to lead a low diamond to the 9.

[nige1]

Flying with ♦ATx and partner unblocking with ♦KQx might be the most difficult to find; it would be ludicrous (to unblock) if declarer had ♦T9xx. And many club switches do not beat it anyway.

Prospects are poor against best defence but, in practical play, this is mainly a problem in psychology. The solution seems unclear.

• If declarer plays on ♦s, starting with ♦J from dummy, then over 60% of the time, careful defenders will make 4 tricks in the suit and come to at least 1 ♣ trick later. (If declarer could have led the first ♦ from hand, his ♦ prospects would have been about 10% better).
• If declarer starts with ♣J from dummy, however, defenders might switch to ♦s, hoping for 4 fast tricks, increasing declarer's chance of a ♦ trick.

[lamford]

Prospects are poor against best defence but, in practical play, this is mainly a problem in psychology. The solution seems unclear.

• If declarer plays on ♦s, starting with ♦J from dummy, then over 60% of the time, careful defenders will make 4 tricks in the suit and come to at least 1 ♣ trick later. (If declarer could have led the first ♦ from hand, his ♦ prospects would have been about 10% better).
• If declarer starts with ♣J from dummy, however, defenders might switch to ♦s, hoping for 4 fast tricks, increasing declarer's chance of a ♦ trick.

Another way of looking at is that if you start on clubs, even if the layout in that suit is favourable, the opponents may be able to take four diamond tricks. If you start on diamonds and that suit is favourable, the opponents are less likely to be able to take two club tricks. I now think that starting with a low diamond from Jxx is slightly better. If they have four diamond tricks, you have no chance anyway. If the diamonds are 3-3, then they have to switch to clubs, and you can still play for all the winning lines there or rise with the ace and play another diamond, when they may not be able to get to their club tricks. I think leading a low diamond is better as in the danger layout KTx opposite AQx it is even harder for them to rise and unblock. Same for ATx opposite KQx.

[msjennifer]

I shall play on clubs.Win the spade Ace and lead the Jack of club.

[PhilG007]

I shall play on clubs.Win the spade Ace and lead the Jack of club.

And if East plays low...? What then?

[johnu]

I'm unsure of the best line but guess it might depend on the quality of the defence. The main chance seems to be to win ♠A and run ♣J. If ♣J is covered, then finesse ♣8. You hope that RHO has ♣K, ♣Q, ♣K3, ♣K2, ♣Q3, ♣Q2, ♣KQ, ♣KQ3, ♣KQ2, or ♣KQ32 (about 30%).

 

Running ♣J also wins if RHO has ♣932, since the remaining club honor will fall under the ace. As noted, if you set up 2 clubs for the opponents you can't set up diamonds without losing 5+ tricks.

[johnu]

And if East plays low...? What then?

 

Really PhilG007? You have 2 legal options, play the ace or play low, and 1 entry to dummy. If you play the ace, you will make 1 club trick (the ace) unless West has exactly KQ tight. Look at nige1's post #3 and confirm to yourself that playing low offers more chances of success.

[miamijd]

Percentage-wise, it looks like 3/3 diamonds is a slightly better shot than leading the Jc at trick 2. But it's close.

 

Cheers,

mike

[parsonsdav]

The only possibility here is if diamonds split 3-3. You can play diamonds three times, and as long as they don't get two clubs first, you'll make nine tricks. If diamonds don't split 3-3, you won't make it on the club J lead, even if clubs are ideally placed.

[johnu]

The only possibility here is if diamonds split 3-3. You can play diamonds three times, and as long as they don't get two clubs first, you'll make nine tricks. If diamonds don't split 3-3, you won't make it on the club J lead, even if clubs are ideally placed.

 

Welcome to the forums parsonsdav.

 

There may be entry problems (and potential heart problems) depending on the play, but ♦H10 or ♦AKQx with West allow you to manufacture a diamond trick if you lead from South. Also, West may error with ♦HHxx and play an honor on a lead from South.

[nige1]

The only possibility here is if diamonds split 3-3. You can play diamonds three times, and as long as they don't get two clubs first, you'll make nine tricks. If diamonds don't split 3-3, you won't make it on the club J lead, even if clubs are ideally placed.

Considering the ♦ suit in isolation, declarer doesn't depend on 3-3 ♦s:

• If you lead ♦J for dummy, then you improve your chances slightly.
• If you lead ♦s from hand, then you improve your chances substantially.
• If defenders attack ♦s, then your chances are even better. And if you start with ♣J, defenders might well switch to ♦s.

If declarer leads a small ♦ from dummy and they do break 3-3, there are still psychological complications to consider. e.g. Suppose RHO wins a ♦ trick and switches to a ♣. Declarer sometimes has to guess the distribution e.g.

• If RHO led from ♣Kxx or ♣Qxx, declarer might succeed by rising ♣A to block the suit.
• If RHO led from ♣Kx ♣Qx or ♣KQx, then declarer might fare better by finessing.

[gszes]

Defense is TOUGH. The backs of the cards manage to confound the best efforts by the defense to divine declarer's intent. There is no way the defense will picture you with precisely AQJx in spades. At least one defender will probably wonder why you are not playing on clubs (your obvious long suit) and that opp might all too easily err thinking you are trying to steal a fast dia trick before leading clubs. From a purely psychological point of view playing a low dia toward hand (at trick 2) gives the best impression of trying to steal a dia trick. There is no successful LOP period if the opps are due 4+ dia tricks and playing on clubs would seem to be the surest way to get the opps to make a deadly switch if it is available. Playing on dia yourself gives you quite an edge under a lot of circumstances. dia can break 33 or they might block and a suspicious opp (looking at Hxx in clubs might even suspect that their p has top club honors as the reason you did not play the suit yourself and lead it.

 

IMHO lead a low dia at trick 2 and insert the 9 if rho plays low. This should keep things as confusing as ever for the defense and who knows what they will do:)