virgosrock Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 [hv=http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=pn%7CVirgosRock%2Cpheno%2CRobotN%2CRobotE%7Cst%7C%7Cmd%7C4S25THJD678JC2679T%2CS689H569QD49QKC48%2CS34QH47KAD25TACJA%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard+10%7Csv%7Cb%7Cmb%7C1C%7Can%7CMinor+suit+opening+--+3%2B+%21C%3B+11-21+HCP%3B+12-22+total+points+%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C1H%7Can%7COne+over+one+--+4%2B+%21H%3B+6%2B+total+points%7Cmb%7C1N%7Can%7COne+notrump+overcall+--+2-5+%21C%3B+2-5+%21D%3B+2-5+%21H%3B+2-5+%21S%3B+15-17+HCP%3B+18-+total+points%3B+stop+in+%21C%3B+stop+in+%21H+%7Cmb%7C2H%7Can%7C3%2B+%21C%3B+4+%21H%3B+11%2B+HCP%3B+12-16+total+points+%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cd%7Can%7CPenalty+double+--+2-5+%21C%3B+2-5+%21D%3B+4-5+%21H%3B+2-5+%21S%3B+15-17+HCP%3B+18-+total+points%3B+stop+in+%21C%3B+stop+in+%21H+%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpg%7C%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpg%7C%7C%0A%0A]399|300[/hv] try this one. Lost $4.37 at 0.5 cents a point. Whatever takeout I moused over showed 10+ points. GIB software bids anything. No controls/protection built in to minimize losses. vrock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerriman Posted October 27, 2017 Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 ( Ignore everything I wrote :( ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
virgosrock Posted October 27, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2017 Good double by GIB. You can't base results on a single hand. I ran a simulation based on 500 hands where North held exactly that hand, East would open 1♣, West would respond 1♥, and East would raise to 2♥. I even assumed West would pass 2♥ when holding 12 total points - in reality, West would bid some of that time so this is the absolute worst case. Assuming best play and defense: Making +2: 1Making +1: 23Making =: 103Down 1: 142Down 2: 98Down 3: 90Down 4: 35Down 5: 7Down 6: 1 Working out the numbers, that's an expected gain of $2.57 to the defence if you don't double; $4.37 if you double. And before you ask, GIB isn't even simulating to come up with the double. That's the book bid made by a basic robot - a simulation would only have confirmed it was correct to begin with.Seriously, these are valuable insights (regardless of simulation results) and I thank you for same. One thing to add here is if partner takes out it is NOT 10+. All bids I looked at were 10+.AND stronger hand is on GIB's left. vrock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve2005 Posted October 28, 2017 Report Share Posted October 28, 2017 Good double by GIB. You can't base results on a single hand. I ran a simulation based on 500 hands where North held exactly that hand,I question your simulations. South on bidding can't have any defensive tricks.+1 looks more likely than your simulation.Maybe you get -1 not worth risk at imps/money bridge.If popped a gasket can take huge risk a mp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Badger Posted October 28, 2017 Report Share Posted October 28, 2017 That's one double no sane, advanced player would make. You've already shown your hand as North, and the only reason I would double is a state-of-the-match/state-of-a-pairs matchpoint evening in sheer desperation to gain some points. Anyone with an iota of bridge intelligence knows that doubling a two level major suit contract is akin to hara kiri except if you can absolutely see that it's going down. Partner will have diddley squat to help you...as he did on this hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerriman Posted October 28, 2017 Report Share Posted October 28, 2017 I question your simulations. South on bidding can't have any defensive tricks.Argh, I'm an idiot. I was surprised originally too but thought I had double checked things. Forgot to put a lower limit on West's point range :( making +1: 68making =: 186down 1: 168down 2: 65down 3: 11down 4: 2 Not doubling = 16 cents to the defence; doubling = $4.27 to the declarer. So, I'm completely wrong. Thanks for correcting me. If GIB were able to simulate in this situation it probably wouldn't have doubled too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve2005 Posted October 29, 2017 Report Share Posted October 29, 2017 If GIB were able to simulate in this situation it probably wouldn't have doubled too.What's to simulate?! Gib overcalled a strong NT (so partner is in charge). Sure Gib's a max but that is no reason to go insane! It's a 2-level contract where opps have an 8-9 card fit that they freely bid without the A or K. They are often gonna make it. If it's down take the 100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerriman Posted October 29, 2017 Report Share Posted October 29, 2017 That's the point - the book bid is wrong and should be fixed, but advanced GIB, if simulations had been turned on for the double (perhaps they aren't?) should have been able to figure that out and correct its mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnu Posted October 29, 2017 Report Share Posted October 29, 2017 What's to simulate?! Gib overcalled a strong NT (so partner is in charge). Sure Gib's a max but that is no reason to go insane! In defense of North's double, sometimes partners aren't paying attention and don't notice that you have a rockcrusher. Double is necessary in case partner has enough for game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
virgosrock Posted October 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2017 I question your simulations. South on bidding can't have any defensive tricks.+1 looks more likely than your simulation.Maybe you get -1 not worth risk at imps/money bridge.If popped a gasket can take huge risk a mp. you are my hero steve2005 vrock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
virgosrock Posted October 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2017 Argh, I'm an idiot. I was surprised originally too but thought I had double checked things. Forgot to put a lower limit on West's point range :( making +1: 68making =: 186down 1: 168down 2: 65down 3: 11down 4: 2 Not doubling = 16 cents to the defence; doubling = $4.27 to the declarer. So, I'm completely wrong. Thanks for correcting me. If GIB were able to simulate in this situation it probably wouldn't have doubled too. well smeeriman you said it yourself :) you have provided so much valuable info thus far we forgive you :)Thus the new Rule should be "Double to show 18hcp and penalty only if stronger opponent is to your right. If GIB partner takes out it is NOT 10+. Is 0+"And this brings me to my pet peeve. Were the Rule makers experienced bridge players? This particular incident says NO. Steve2000 still my hero. vrock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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