18-19 balanced with a fit?

[gwnn]

With 4-4, partner is supposed to bid 3♠. Yes I realize we may miss a good 4-4 heart fit when he is unbalanced with 4.

 

Checkback nominally shows 5M unless there's a surprise somewhere else (like 5m).

Sorry, I meant 4432 any order or 4441 any order. Anyway, I think it's just masterminding to deny 4-card fit here, and I'm surprised you are espousing it. Of course I agree that a 3♦ toy would be nice to have.

[rhm]

That's a pretty obvious 4H bid (over 1C-1H; 3H) to me. You have a singleton and 5 trumps. There's nothing contradictory about accepting an invitation on a minimum response. This is a minimum 3514 (which should accept), not a minimum 3433 (which should not accept).

 

to clarify, though, I think 4H is by no means awful, it is my second choice.

My first choice is 2NT and my second choice is still 2NT.

 

I will mention some simple facts to consider for the heart raisers:

 

With regards to game bidding hearts must play 2 tricks better before showing a significant IMPs profit compared to game at notrumps.

Simulation has shown that even if partner has a random 5♥332, 3NT is more likely to make than game in hearts opposite a random 4♥333.

Apart from the distribution the honor structure of this 4333 hand looks to me much more suitable for notrumps, that is a preponderance of lower honors in all suits.

 

I ran a simulation (1000 deals), giving partner 4-5 hearts, no more than 4 spades and at least 5 HCP with no upper limit.

 

Result:

 

3NT made double dummy on 866 (87%) deals

Average number of tricks in notrumps was 10.2

4♥ made on 737 (74%) deals

Average number of tricks in hearts was 10.4

 

Comparative Analysis:

 

When 4♥ made, 3NT will make in 96% of these deals

When 4 ♥ fails, 3NT will still make in 61% of these deals

 

When 3NT makes, 4♥ will only make in 82% of these deals

When 3NT fails, 4♥ will make only in 23% of these deals

 

Now remember you will sometimes reach 4♥ on those deals where 3NT fails even after you rebid 2NT, because North will often be unbalanced in those scenarios.

I made no assumptions about North distribution except the ones stated above.

Of course agreements after a jump rebid into 2NT helps.

I personally like transfers. If partner transfers into his bid major he guarantees at least five, but is never 5332 unless he is very weak and intends to pass next.

 

The opposite is not true:

It is quite tough to reach 3NT after you bid 4♥ straight away.

Even after a jump raise few partnerships can stop in 3NT.

 

On top it is well known that this double dummy analysis understates the advantage of 3NT over 4♥, mainly because single dummy the defense does not always find the best lead against 3NT.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[gwnn]

That's definitely a thought-provoking post, rhm! For me, I'll stick to showing a fit when I have one, but I'm open to the idea that I haven't thought this through too much. Some thoughts:

 

1. Partner will pass 2NT when 4H makes sometimes (weak hand, 5-card major, or 4-card with a stiff).
   
2. We may "find" 4H instead of 3NT (or 6H instead of 6C/6N), but partner will never know of a 4-4 fit if we denied it.
   
3. I'm naturally lazy so I will stick to the system i.e. 2NT categorically denies 4-card support.
   
4. Thanks for the post, I'll think more about it!
   

 

Having a way to differentiate the 14 counts with a stiff from the baddish 18 counts would definitely help (as mentioned several times in this thread) - I assume you'd be happy to make that bid, rhm? Actually most of my systems had this (hard not to when you're playing a lot of artificial crap) but now I'll insist more if I start a new partnership. Or at least having 1m-1M; 3M-3NT as COG ("do you have a mexican NT??") would be something.

[awm]

This particular hand is 3433 with cards in all suits and somewhat slow values. Rebidding 2nt may work well here — but I doubt it’s a good tactic on all 18-19 hands with a fit (suppose a small doubleton somewhere for example).

[steve2005]

3NT is best as you want the lead to come up to the strong hand with its tenaces. North should not disturb this unless

he has 6+ ♥ With 19 pts opposite partners known minimum of 6 I want to be in a game contract.

Congratulations if 6♥ is there you have probably missed it.

[steve2005]

My first choice is 2NT and my second choice is still 2NT.

 

I will mention some simple facts to consider for the heart raisers:

 

With regards to game bidding hearts must play 2 tricks better before showing a significant IMPs profit compared to game at notrumps.

 

Rainer Herrmann

I accept that it probably doesn't make that much difference at imps between 3N/4♥ as far as game

but what are the stats on slam. If responder has 4/5 ♥ there could be a slam and responder often won't be investigating as they don't know about fit.

 

 

[Wendelin]

Maybe you should change to the French Standard System SEF. There is a conventional bid for those hands. 3SA ist reserved for balanced hands with 18/19 HCP. Looks like you get the best of both worlds.

Personally I am very surprised by the simulations rhm made and I should think more about those hands as I am a 4♥ bidder so far. I dont think 3♥ is a good compromise as then the bid is not reserved for unbalanced hands any more.

[gwnn]

I accept that it probably doesn't make that much difference at imps between 3N/4♥ as far as game

but what are the stats on slam. If responder has 4/5 ♥ there could be a slam and responder often won't be investigating as they don't know about fit.

My main concern is finding game vs responder passing 2NT. I don't think responder should do anything but pass 2NT on the famous 3514 hand from earlier this thread. I'm fully prepared to accept that this ensemble of hands is probably not enough to change rhm's stats, but it would be interesting to check somehow.

[steve2005]

My main concern is finding game vs responder passing 2NT. I don't think responder should do anything but pass 2NT on the famous 3514 hand from earlier this thread. I'm fully prepared to accept that this ensemble of hands is probably not enough to change rhm's stats, but it would be interesting to check somehow.

Nothing stops you from finding game if you leave open possibility of investigating slam. Slam is likely less than 10% of the hands. But if responder has 5♥ you are going to miss slams if you don't show 4♥. The simulations seemed to indicate 3N/4♥ are fairly close so why not show 4♥. I didn't see anything in the simulations about 4♥ vs 3N if responder has 5♥ but I may have missed it.

 

Also, responder may be bidding game when you show 4♥ and passing 2N if you don't.

[gwnn]

Also, responder may be bidding game when you show 4♥ and passing 2N if you don't.

This was my point :)

[cherdano]

Maybe to please both Csaba and Rainer, we should bid 3♥ with this hand, but responder should offer 3NT (perhaps via a 3♠ transfer!) with most balanced hands?

[gwnn]

Maybe to please both Csaba and Rainer, we should bid 3♥ with this hand, but responder should offer 3NT (perhaps via a 3♠ transfer!) with most balanced hands?

 

Or at least having 1m-1M; 3M-3NT as COG ("do you have a mexican NT??") would be something.

 

But yes I think a 3♠ transfer would be cool :)

[gszes]

I have always felt it was important to have at LEAST 2 ways to show GF major suit raises (by opener). Using a totally natural system rebidding 4m and raising to 4M fit the bill nicely. I prefer the 4m to be the highly distributional raise and 4M to be the balanced powerhouse since it would, logically, be significantly safer to explore for slam opposite a balanced powerhouse than the randomness of the preemptive game raise of 4m. This might also leave some small investigative room for the partnership to explore for slam below game when the 4m bid is used. void Axxx xx AKxxxxx u open 1c and p bids 1h what do you do? even if u play splinter bids it is a poor idea with so few HCP and anything less than game seems wrong so trot out 4c and see what happens.