Pick a Lead

[The_Badger]

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Pairs MPs (or equally it could be Teams IMPs)

 

1NT rebid is 12-14, 3♣ limit raise 11-12 with 4♣s. Choose your lead.

[apollo1201]

HA for me

From the auction, partner seems to have a few goodies (some quacks, maybe a K or an A), so it is unlikely that they can run 10 tricks after drawing 3 (or 4) rounds of trumps.

In all cases, it will retain the lead and I can still shift should dummy or partner's discard on HK inspire me some 2nd thoughts.

At MPs, not all will play 4H so being plus would probably reach a good score. And at IMPs, I want to maximize my chances of making 4 tricks. I believe HA maintains all these possibilities and is less "committed" than any other suit that could be good but I don't know yet.

Of course I'm gonna drop partner's singleton J🤣

[Tramticket]

My instinct is to try to force declarer and lead a diamond, continuing diamonds at every opportunity.

[apollo1201]

My instinct is to try to force declarer and lead a diamond, continuing diamonds at every opportunity.

D was under my consideration but I want to see dummy

[LBengtsson]

T ♠. safe lead

[nige1]

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Pairs MPs (or equally it could be Teams IMPs)

1NT rebid is 12-14, 3♣ limit raise 11-12 with 4♣s.

Choose your lead.[/hv]

Agree with Tramticket. I rank

1. ♦3 = Hoping to create a force.
2. ♠T = Safe
3. ♥A = Cutting down ruffs.
4. ♣2 = Hampering communications,

[PhilG007]

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Pairs MPs (or equally it could be Teams IMPs)

 

1NT rebid is 12-14, 3♣ limit raise 11-12 with 4♣s. Choose your lead.

Lead out your top trumps and watch for partner's discard signal. You only need

one more trick to defeat the contact and its highly likely partner has the A or K♦

[msjennifer]

HA.Safe lead and watch the dummy and partners discard.

[hijunny132]

It would be a shame for all of the leaders of a high heart if partner had a singleton J!H or the singleton T!H with dummy having the J!H (declarer will probably misguess)

[Cyberyeti]

It would be a shame for all of the leaders of a high heart if partner had a singleton J!H or the singleton T!H with dummy having the J!H (declarer will probably misguess)

 

That this is given as a problem indicates a stiff J to me.

[miamijd]

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Pairs MPs (or equally it could be Teams IMPs)

 

1NT rebid is 12-14, 3♣ limit raise 11-12 with 4♣s. Choose your lead.

 

I'm going to assume setting the contract (even one) will get us a good score.

 

Leading a trump will gain if South is 1534 or 3514, North has a doubleton in South's fragment, and South needs to ruff the third-round loser. It will lose if partner has a stiff J (or sometimes T) of trump.

 

Leading a diamond will gain if South is 2515, lacks the Ad, and is able to pitch the diamond by taking 3 immediate rounds of spades. It will lose if it gives South a third diamond trick that can be used to pitch a losing spade. I am ignoring the possibility that diamonds could force declarer so that he goes down much more than one.

 

Leading a spade will gain if South can't really do anything but hope for help from the opponents.

 

Leading a club looks like idiocy.

 

Tough choice. I think I will try the 10s, but a trump or a diamond could be right as well.

[Winstonm]

Where are the missing cards and what was the reason for moving to game with a 12 count missing AKQ of trump? KQx, Jxxxx, x, AQxx looks about right for this auction. I think I will look to make 4 heart tricks or a spade and 3 hearts.

 

Spade 10 for me.

[ncohen]

Lead out your top trumps and watch for partner's discard signal. You only need

one more trick to defeat the contact and its highly likely partner has the A or K♦

 

I lead a diamond. If P has high diamond honor, the force will work.

[ncohen]

 

Leading a diamond will gain if South is 2515, lacks the Ad, and is able to pitch the diamond by taking 3 immediate rounds of spades. It will lose if it gives South a third diamond trick that can be used to pitch a losing spade. I am ignoring the possibility that diamonds could force declarer so that he goes down much more than one.

 

I think it's unlikely to give up a trick by leading diamonds. You're giving up a trick declarer can't make otherwise only if declarer is void and dummy has AKJ or declarer has the D J. That's unlikely, since declarer has length in hearts and clubs. A diamond lead has a good chance of setting the contract if P has the DJ and declarer doesn't have 6 trumps, very unlikely on the auction.

[mojila]

Did South bid 4!C or 4!H....on print shows 4!H. :)

[marklaf]

If the bidding is to be believed partner has nothing--while leading a diamond may give away a trick--you will get it back by continuing them at every opportunity--you really don't care which hand ruffs-the problem with safe leads is that the trumps may be solid enough for the declarer to lead them at every opportunity.