19 count opposite a preempt

[smerriman]

[hv=http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?sn=smerriman&s=SQ9542HAKQD3CAKJ9&nn=Robot&d=n&v=o&b=1&a=3D(Preempt%20--%207+%20!D%3B%205-9%20HCP%3B%20!DQ%3B%206+%20total%20points)P]200|300[/hv]

 

IMPs. It seems hard to count 9 tricks, but will you pass?

[helene_t]

I am tempted to try 3NT. ♣10 in the dummy could be enough of an entry to establish the diamonds. And if I go down there's always the chance that 3♦ would have been down also.

[wank]

i don't think 3nt is ever going to be right. 5d might make when partner is short in spades. 4s might make when p has 3.

 

non-vul i'd just pass, not least because partner's diamond suit will often be too bad to make 5d even with a singleton spade.

 

passing marginal hands is good strategy because if lho protects you're delighted.

[cherdano]

IMPs. It seems hard to count 9 tricks, but will you pass?

Hopefully I've already passed in tempo!

[rmnka447]

+1 for Wank.

[gszes]

pass no matter what the vul is. If we trust our p 3d bid then it seems almost impossible for anything other than 4s to make. The problem is it is almost impossible for p to have 3 spades good enough to make 4s a decent contract. I think looking for 3n or 5d are gigantic fishing expeditions. Preempts work and this time it appears to have hurt our chances of arriving at the best spot that's life. Who knows maybe just maybe lho will balance and we will be happy again.

[steve2005]

pass no matter what the vul is. If we trust our p 3d bid then it seems almost impossible for anything other than 4s to make. The problem is it is almost impossible for p to have 3 spades good enough to make 4s a decent contract. I think looking for 3n or 5d are gigantic fishing expeditions. Preempts work and this time it appears to have hurt our chances of arriving at the best spot that's life. Who knows maybe just maybe lho will balance and we will be happy again.

Jxx♠ A♦ and round suit void/singleton/even doubleton

No way to find out and play in a contract that has chance of making if not 3S.

People I play against balance aggressively, so think pass can't be horrible.

[Vampyr]

+1 for Wank.

 

Then give him an upvote!

 

Definitely passing, although I think that this wasn't posted as a problem unless bidding was right on the actual hand.

[smerriman]

Definitely passing, although I think that this wasn't posted as a problem unless bidding was right on the actual hand.

 

Nope, passing is correct. I knew it probably would be, but I ignored myself and bid 3NT anyway :( Partner had exactly what you'd expect to make the contract hopeless:

 

xx

xxx

KQJxxxx

x

[The_Badger]

Rule #1 Stop bidding as soon as possible with a misfit.

Rule #2 This applies to pre-empts, too.

 

Yes, partner could have the perfect hand for 4♠, 5♦ or 3NT to make but given how flaky 3 level minor suit pre-empts are these days, it's a reluctant pass from me too.

[Cyberyeti]

Rule #1 Stop bidding as soon as possible with a misfit.

Rule #2 This applies to pre-empts, too.

 

Yes, partner could have the perfect hand for 4♠, 5♦ or 3NT to make but given how flaky 3 level minor suit pre-empts are these days, it's a reluctant pass from me too.

 

If you read the tip on the auction, it looks like this preempt is not flaky, but game looks unlikely. You could be making anywhere between 1 and 7 here easily with no way of knowing the right spot.

 

My worry from the description is that this is a robot not a human and their 3♦ will include some hands with >7♦ that a human might open more than 3 with or a lot of shape (void, x, AKxxxxx, Qxxxx would meet the criteria listed in the tip) that a human might open 1.

 

Opposite a human I'd pass, opposite a robot, still thinking.

[steve2005]

If you read the tip on the auction, it looks like this preempt is not flaky, but game looks unlikely. You could be making anywhere between 1 and 7 here easily with no way of knowing the right spot.

 

My worry from the description is that this is a robot not a human and their 3♦ will include some hands with >7♦ that a human might open more than 3 with or a lot of shape (void, x, AKxxxxx, Qxxxx would meet the criteria listed in the tip) that a human might open 1.

 

Opposite a human I'd pass, opposite a robot, still thinking.

I don't think the tips says preempt isn't flaky.

Even with this max preempt if it doesn't have Q♣ 9 tricks in 3N looks hard.

 

If I had more diamonds I would take a shot with less hcp. With singleton you need more or need to find responder with perfect hand.

 

 

[Cyberyeti]

I don't think the tips says preempt isn't flaky.

Even with this max preempt if it doesn't have Q♣ 9 tricks in 3N looks hard.

 

If I had more diamonds I would take a shot with less hcp. With singleton you need more or need to find responder with perfect hand.

 

5-9 and a 7+ card suit is a lot better than I might have ...

 

3N is actually the least likely game to make (J10(x), x(x), AKxxxxx, xx would seem to be pretty solid without Q♣), but you can't probe effectively or safely for KJx, x, Axxxxxx, xx or x, xxx, KQJ10xxx, xx or void, xx, A?xxxxx, Q108x. I'd suggest 5♦ is most likely but still a long shot.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

No, I am not passing - 3NT.

Partner is allowed to have AKJxxxx, diamonds 32, finesse working.

And there are other holdings, giving me a 2nd entry to the hand.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[neilkaz]

Hopefully I've already passed in tempo!

 

Yeah I have to agree that I just don't expect to be a fave to make game. Hopefully, I can appear disinterested if LHO is thinking about balancing.

[Left2Right]

Whether 3NT is a good bet depends on two things.

1) What suit quality can you depend on from your dear partner?

2) What's the likelihood of finding an entry?

 

I have posted a new constraint file so that partnerships can test their knowledge of each other rather then waiting to guess this at the table.

See 3NT after partner's preempt

 

And by all means, do try this at home. :rolleyes:

[Tramticket]

Hopefully I've already passed in tempo!

 

Great comment. I'm pretty sure that I would pass. But in tempo???

[kevinwm]

There is ZERO chance I would pass this. The choice is between 3nt, 5!d, and some sequence designed to look for slam. Some also depends on partnership agreements though.

 

3nt is the riskiest of these choices. Unless North has a second entry to hand, that long suit is likely to be useless.

 

5!d is very likely to make - with a long !s suit missing AK, North is likely to be short and will be able to trump. 6 trump tricks and 5 side tricks and it makes.

 

With my partners, I'd be tempted to bid 5!c showing control and slam interest. With min, partner can bid 5!d signoff. With !s stop, we probably have 6.

[sfi]

Pass. On a bad day we go down in 3, and game looks anti-percentage. The vulnerability gives partner more leeway to have a weaker hand and means we don't get as much for bidding and making game.

[kevinwm]

I just ran the numbers to confirm my instincts - the probability distribution for North's spade count is below. There's a 40% chance that North has a singleton or void, and a 77% chance that he has a doubleton or less. I like the odds on 5!d, and possibly even slam.

 

North spade count probability:

0: 9.2%

1: 31.4%

2: 36.7%

3: 18.3%

4: 4.0%

5: 0.4%

6: 0.01%

[Cyberyeti]

I just ran the numbers to confirm my instincts - the probability distribution for North's spade count is below. There's a 40% chance that North has a singleton or void, and a 77% chance that he has a doubleton or less. I like the odds on 5!d, and possibly even slam.

 

North spade count probability:

0: 9.2%

1: 31.4%

2: 36.7%

3: 18.3%

4: 4.0%

5: 0.4%

6: 0.01%

 

Also depends on what you think his suit looks like, he will have almost certainly one spade and one diamond loser, how do you fancy the odds opposite 7 to the KQ10 and a stiff spade ? not terrible, but not great.

[miamijd]

Personally, I wouldn't pass at IMPs. There is too much that has to go right for passing to the be the correct bid:

 

1. Partner has to have exactly two spades. If he has one spade, 5D is likely odds-on. If he has 3, you probably belong in 4S.

 

2. Partner can't have strength outside diamonds. Then you belong in 3NT.

 

3. If 1 and 2 are correct, then the opponents have to find a spade lead.

 

This sort of parlay is not a good bet. And if you lose the bet, you lose 10 IMPs (600 at the other table vs your 130), whereas if you win the bet, you only win 6 big (+130 vs -100 for a gain of 230 or 6 IMPs).

 

I think 3S is reasonable. If partner bids 4D, I'll try 5D (and by the way, that might inhibit a spade lead). If partner bids 3NT, implying some outside strength, I'm happy. If partner raises spades, I'll hope he has 3 or else that the spades break.

 

And no, the opponents aren't going to balance holding only about 15 HCP between them.

 

Cheers,

Mike

[RD350LC]

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IMPs. It seems hard to count 9 tricks, but will you pass?

At matchpoints, I definitely would pass, but at IMPS, I likely would go 5♦.

[Cyberyeti]

Personally, I wouldn't pass at IMPs. There is too much that has to go right for passing to the be the correct bid:

 

1. Partner has to have exactly two spades. If he has one spade, 5D is likely odds-on. If he has 3, you probably belong in 4S.

 

2. Partner can't have strength outside diamonds. Then you belong in 3NT.

 

3. If 1 and 2 are correct, then the opponents have to find a spade lead.

 

This sort of parlay is not a good bet. And if you lose the bet, you lose 10 IMPs (600 at the other table vs your 130), whereas if you win the bet, you only win 6 big (+130 vs -100 for a gain of 230 or 6 IMPs).

 

I think 3S is reasonable. If partner bids 4D, I'll try 5D (and by the way, that might inhibit a spade lead). If partner bids 3NT, implying some outside strength, I'm happy. If partner raises spades, I'll hope he has 3 or else that the spades break.

 

And no, the opponents aren't going to balance holding only about 15 HCP between them.

 

Cheers,

Mike

 

Where are you getting 600 from, nobody appears to be vulnerable

[miamijd]

Where are you getting 600 from, nobody appears to be vulnerable

 

Yes, you're right. It's not 10 and 6 (that would be both vul); it's more like 6 and 5. Not a lot of difference. Sorry about that.

 

My other points remain, however, so I don't think pass will be the winner in the long run.

 

Cheers,

Mike