ahydra Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 IMPs [hv=pc=n&w=s5hq9752dkjt65cq9&e=sakq3hadaq9caj742&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=2c(GF)p2hp3cp3dp3sp4dp7dppp]266|200[/hv] Lead: S10 (to A, 4 (encouraging), 5). Plan the play. ahydra 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Badger Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 +1 for posting, ahydra. I'd rather be in 6♦ here. Given that grand slams should be bid on a probability of 75%+ can we at least assume ♦s split 3-2 (68%). I'm already timed out mesmerised what is the statistically correct line. (Oh for the ♦8 instead of [diamonds}6 in the West hand.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Badger Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 My line for what it's worth - lol! 1) ♠A2) ♠ ruff with trump3) small ♣ to J (sweat pouring off brow now) - holds!4) ♣A5) ruff small ♣ with high trump6) ♥A7) ruff small ♣ with high trump8) ♦ to ♦AQ9 ♠KQ ♣2 hope dummy's good. Win last trick with smallest card in the pack ♣2 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 I'm probably cross ruffing the hand. The lead looks like a "safe" 1098(x)(x). I will cash 3 spades to start, pitching a heart then a club, if the second or third spade is ruffed in front, I will need the club finesse, if it isn't I have to guess whether to ruff the 4th spade or 3rd club later (with other possibilities if for example S has ♣Kx). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted August 16, 2017 Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 [hv=pc=n&w=s5hq9752dkjt65cq9&e=sakq3hadaq9caj742&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=2c(GF)p2hp3cp3dp3sp4dp7dppp]266|200|Lead: S10 (to A, 4 (encouraging), 5). Plan the play.[/hv]My guess:♠AKQ discarding ♣Q and 2♥s.If the ♠ tops stand up then cash plain suit aces and cross-ruff.If RHO ruffs the 3rd ♠, then over-ruff and finesse ♣J, cash ♣A and cross-ruff.If RHO ruffs the 2nd ♠, then over-ruff, finesse ♣J, ruff a ♣ high, ♥A, ruff a ♣ high, ♦9, ruff a ♠ high, cash ♦AQ, ♠Q, and ♣Ax. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahydra Posted August 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2017 3 rounds of spades survive but S will ruff the 2nd club with the D7. edit: which makes the crossruff line a success (ruffing two clubs small and one high, ruffing three hearts high, and ending with ♦KJ at trick 12). Well done to CY and nige1. What if the ♦3 is led? ahydra Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 3 rounds of spades survive but S will ruff the 2nd club with the D7, which makes the crossruff line a success (ruffing two clubs small and one high, ruffing three hearts high, and ending with ♦KJ at trick 12). Well done to CY and nige1. What if the ♦3 is led?Thank you. If RHO ha a singlton ♣, then it must be hard to make 7♦. on a ♦ lead, except at double-dummy. My best single dummy effort:is ♦9, ♠AKQ, discarding ♣Q and 2 ♥s, ♥A, ruff a ♠ (perhaps you should ruff high), finesse ♣J, cash ♣A. If RHO had followed, then you could cross-ruff.If RHO ruffs ♣A, then hope ♥Q ruffs out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Badger Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 Well done Cyberyeti and Nige1 +1 I consider the crossruff initially, but bet against it fearing North would ruff 3rd ♠. A trump is usually a safe lead against a grand slam so I was wondering why North had led a ♠? I realise my line was statistically inferior to yours but by the time I posted 40 minutes had elapsed! (I don't think too many directors would be happy with my 'slow play') Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted August 17, 2017 Report Share Posted August 17, 2017 Well done Cyberyeti and Nige1 +1 I consider the crossruff initially, but bet against it fearing North would ruff 3rd ♠. A trump is usually a safe lead against a grand slam so I was wondering why North had led a ♠? I realise my line was statistically inferior to yours but by the time I posted 40 minutes had elapsed! (I don't think too many directors would be happy with my 'slow play') If you've got ♠10x or 109, you probably have 3 or 4 small trumps and would have led one against a grand. The 10♠ felt like "safer than a trump" hence 1098x or similar with a stiff trump which hasn't been led as opps have blasted it and you could be picking up J10xx for declarer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahydra Posted August 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2017 Full hand: [hv=pc=n&s=sj9874hkt643d72c3&w=s5hq9752dkjt65cq9&n=st62hj8d843ckt865&e=sakq3hadaq9caj742&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=2cp2hp3cp3dp3sp4dp7dppp]399|300[/hv] My lead of the S10 was probably ill-advised on the auction - I'd been listening to David Bird go on about trump leads vs grand slams a bit too much :). Declarer went one down, while team-mates were in the rather unimaginative 3NT. He should have made it though - he played Nige's crossruff line but forgot to cash the SQ first. (Perhaps my 10-x of spades made him think I started with a doubleton?) On a trump lead, you have to take the club finesse then squeeze South in the majors - all rather double-dummy: [hv=pc=n&s=sj9874hkt643d72c3&w=s5hq9752dkjt65cq9&n=st62hj8d843ckt865&e=sakq3hadaq9caj742&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=2cp2hp3cp3dp3sp4dp7dppp&p=d3dad2d5hah3h2h8dqd7dkd4cqckcac3cjs4c9c5c2h4d6c6h5hjd9h6c4htdtc8djd8c7]399|300[/hv] ahydra Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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