Win or duck?

[Kaitlyn S]

Katlyn's BridgeWinner Poll is a useful indicator to what "a good club player" might lead. Interestingly, however, Joshua Donn (world class) would lead ♦K, like Kaitlyn, Manuddude03, and Mr Ace :)

Actually, I am advocating for the ♥7 lead. Right now, I have no company :(

[MrAce]

It imight be irrelevant whether partner would overcall on the second example hand because declarer would then have

♠ J x ♥ Q x ♦ A K x x x ♣ A J x x

With that hand, declarer might open 1N.

And he would run for home after sneaking 1 X ♠ trick to go with 1 X ♥, 2 X ♦s and 5 X ♣s.

To defeat the contract, you would have to play ♠A on the 1st round -- as Mr Ace specified in his first reply.

Katlyn's BridgeWinner Poll is a useful indicator to what "a good club player" might lead. Interestingly, however, Joshua Donn (world class) would lead ♦K, like Kaitlyn, Manuddude03, and Mr Ace :)

 

As you said I already wrote i would have won the first ♠.

But you can always have declarer hold Jx Qx AJxxx AQxx http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.gif

[nige1]

The set of South hands with ♥Q is larger than the set with ♥A but on most of the former, 3N is a poor contract and opponents would rather be in 4♠.

 

However, with

♠ K Q T x x ♥ K ♦ T x ♣ K x x x x opposite

♠ J x ♥ A x ♦ x x x x x ♣ A Q J x

3N is an reasonable contract, defeated only by an uneven ♦ break, no blockage, and (according to BBF) inspired defence

[The_Badger]

Jinksy! Where are you? Please show us the whole hand. I believe we have discussed this enough, and need a definitive answer.

[Kaitlyn S]

Another interesting question:

 

You hold 75, Q7432, AKJ2, T5 on lead against 1D-1S-2C-2H-2NT-3C-3S-3NT. The opponents must have game going strength, so if your partner has a top heart, they have little else of value and the opponents are going to take tons of black suit tricks. So if you want to set 3NT you have to assume that partner has a black card (because the DQ isn't enough.)

 

Given that you need partner to have a black suit entry (meaning that the opponents have two heart stoppers), and that the opponents probably have lots of black suit tricks once they regain the lead, why on earth would you emphasize hearts by leading the ♥3? When partner gets in, you don't want him to play hearts because it's unlikely to beat the contract! You need partner to have a diamond holding that will beat the contract; either ♦Qx or ♦T9x. So wouldn't you lead the ♥7?

I'd like to add to this analysis - if partner's only card is the ♥A, then partner needs to get the benefit of the heart information without the benefit of a Smith Echo, and the defense must get their five tricks before declarer takes a bunch of black suit winners. Only the ♥7 lead gets partner in, while emphasizing that the leader's strength lies outside hearts. (The ♦K works as well, except in the cases where it blocks the suit.)

[Kaitlyn S]

So far, we have 18 votes for the ♥3, 2 votes for the ♥2, 4 votes for the ♦K. I'm somewhat shocked that I'm the lone ♥7 leader. Let's see how much luck I have convincing people.

 

Can I convince anyone? On BridgeWinners

[The_Badger]

So far, we have 18 votes for the ♥3, 2 votes for the ♥2, 4 votes for the ♦K. I'm somewhat shocked that I'm the lone ♥7 leader. Let's see how much luck I have convincing people.

 

Can I convince anyone? On BridgeWinners

 

It seems, Kaitlyn, that you've invented a new way of leading to certain contracts: either high/low (or odd/even) attitude, one showing an ace or king; and the other showing the Q or lower :)

[Kaitlyn S]

It seems, Kaitlyn, that you've invented a new way of leading to certain contracts: either high/low (or odd/even) attitude, one showing an ace or king; and the other showing the Q or lower :)

Not at all. I am leading the ♥7 on this hand simply because I have figured out that I can't beat this hand by running hearts. On a different auction or a with a different hand, where it was possible that the contract could be beat by setting up and running hearts, I would lead the ♥3 like everyone else.

[Winstonm]

Would you pass 3NT with this hand? Would anybody in a pair that knows enough to bid 3C over 2NT sometimes pass 3NT with this hand?

 

In case there's anybody that would, your partner bid 3C (either showing fear of notrump, or looking for a club slam) without the club ace, the club queen, or the club jack. They also bid 3NT over 3S (with S-AKQxx they would probably bid 4S) so you probably have a spade loser or finesse. Partner bid 3C for a reason - they must have a lot of black cards. A lot of black cards means not very many red ones; meaning that you either lose four diamond tricks when the opponents win their spade trick, or that partner doesn't have help in hearts and there will be an avalanche of hearts when you lose a spade trick.

 

I would think partner's 3C bid would be a question about whether or not NT is the best contract, 4S and 5C are also still in play, as well, and club slam try is in that mix. That opener bid NT twice indicates to me a solid heart stop and most likely a minimum hand: Ax in this situation.

 

With that to go on, and the play in clubs, Jx, Ax, xxxxx, AQxx seems the most likely hand to me.

[Kaitlyn S]

I would think partner's 3C bid would be a question about whether or not NT is the best contract, 4S and 5C are also still in play, as well, and club slam try is in that mix. That opener bid NT twice indicates to me a solid heart stop and most likely a minimum hand: Ax in this situation.

 

With that to go on, and the play in clubs, Jx, Ax, xxxxx, AQxx seems the most likely hand to me.

I would hope that if this was declarer's hand, partner would have led a higher heart than the ♥3 to suggest the "obvious" from seeing dummy diamond return.

 

However, BridgeWinners players don't seem to agree with that assessment. According to one of our top players, 20 of 24 of them are morons. One of those "morons" is another top BBO poster, who wrote a detailed answer telling me why I (and also Timo) are wrong and suggested that I am overthinking the problem. I was brought back to those dark days in the Water Cooler when the same poster would spend a fair amount of energy telling me how misguided and brainwashed I am. (Come to think of it... oh, maybe I should quit while I'm ahead :D)

 

So I have to concede that while I would have led a higher heart if declarer held that hand, that I am playing with another human being and most of them would not lead a higher heart, even after hearing the arguments for the higher heart lead.

 

So while I don't think declarer should hold that hand based on partner's low heart lead, most players good enough to use BridgeWinners as a resource lead a low heart from the hand you are giving partner, so perhaps I am too quick to rule it out.

 

However, Timo brings up another good point - you are giving partner ♥Qxxxx and ♦AKJx and partner didn't overcall at game all. In the original problem, I was not a passed hand, so a heart overcall seems perfectly normal (I changed the conditions of contest to make the heart overcall less attractive when posting to BridgeWinners, but I still would bid 1H.)

[Winstonm]

I would hope that if this was declarer's hand, partner would have led a higher heart than the ♥3 to suggest the "obvious" from seeing dummy diamond return.

 

However, BridgeWinners players don't seem to agree with that assessment. According to one of our top players, 20 of 24 of them are morons. One of those "morons" is another top BBO poster, who wrote a detailed answer telling me why I (and also Timo) are wrong and suggested that I am overthinking the problem. I was brought back to those dark days in the Water Cooler when the same poster would spend a fair amount of energy telling me how misguided and brainwashed I am. (Come to think of it... oh, maybe I should quit while I'm ahead :D)

 

So I have to concede that while I would have led a higher heart if declarer held that hand, that I am playing with another human being and most of them would not lead a higher heart, even after hearing the arguments for the higher heart lead.

 

So while I don't think declarer should hold that hand based on partner's low heart lead, most players good enough to use BridgeWinners as a resource lead a low heart from the hand you are giving partner, so perhaps I am too quick to rule it out.

 

However, Timo brings up another good point - you are giving partner ♥Qxxxx and ♦AKJx and partner didn't overcall at game all. In the original problem, I was not a passed hand, so a heart overcall seems perfectly normal (I changed the conditions of contest to make the heart overcall less attractive when posting to BridgeWinners, but I still would bid 1H.)

 

I think you are putting too much emphasis on 4 hearts in partner's hand. In this auction, it would not be a surprise to find partner had led a heart from Qxx, would it?

 

Your points are valid. I'm just offering my thinking and what I would do in this situation. I have been wrong many, many times, but at least I have my reasons for being wrong. :P

[Kaitlyn S]

I think you are putting too much emphasis on 4 hearts in partner's hand. In this auction, it would not be a surprise to find partner had led a heart from Qxx, would it?

Not against this auction; however, on this particular hand where declarer bid 3S and is almost certainly 2-2 in the majors, partner is marked with five hearts.

[MrAce]

I think you are putting too much emphasis on 4 hearts in partner's hand. In this auction, it would not be a surprise to find partner had led a heart from Qxx, would it?

 

 

Winstonm! Really? http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

[johnu]

Another interesting question:

 

You hold 75, Q7432, AKJ2, T5 on lead against 1D-1S-2C-2H-2NT-3C-3S-3NT. The opponents must have game going strength, so if your partner has a top heart, they have little else of value and the opponents are going to take tons of black suit tricks. So if you want to set 3NT you have to assume that partner has a black card (because the DQ isn't enough.)

 

I ran a simulation on Dealmaster Pro. Choice of assumptions can affect the results, but the best leads (including ties) over 200 simulations were:

 

♠ - 155

432 ♥ - 169

7♥ - 169

A/K♦ - 171

♣ - 151

 

The winner in this set of simulations was a high diamond by a small amount. The main advantage of a diamond is that you can make a switch at trick 2 if spades or clubs is the suit you need to attack. I played around with changing some other parameters, and ♥7 can be worse than a low heart a couple of times out of 200 hands when the wasted 7 card promotes a late round heart trick for declarer. Also, these simulations are double dummy, but a real life partner would not know you have led from an honor and may misdefend.

[Kaitlyn S]

I ran a simulation on Dealmaster Pro. Choice of assumptions can affect the results, but the best leads (including ties) over 200 simulations were:

 

♠ - 155

432 ♥ - 169

7♥ - 169

A/K♦ - 171

♣ - 151

 

The winner in this set of simulations was a high diamond by a small amount. The main advantage of a diamond is that you can make a switch at trick 2 if spades or clubs is the suit you need to attack. I played around with changing some other parameters, and ♥7 can be worse than a low heart a couple of times out of 200 hands when the wasted 7 card promotes a late round heart trick for declarer. Also, these simulations are double dummy, but a real life partner would not know you have led from an honor and may misdefend.

Yes indeed, if I know my partner is going to defend double dummy, I need not lead the H7 to suggest a switch as any heart would work as well.

[Kaitlyn S]

So far, we have 18 votes for the ♥3, 2 votes for the ♥2, 4 votes for the ♦K. I'm somewhat shocked that I'm the lone ♥7 leader. Let's see how much luck I have convincing people.

 

Can I convince anyone? On BridgeWinners

 

Current results (of the updated poll):

11 people lead a low heart and are unconvinced

7 people lead a high diamond and unconvinced

2 people would have led a low heart and are now leading the ♥7

1 person would have led a high diamond and is now leading the ♥7

Nobody would have led the H7 originally

 

And unfortunately, Paul has hijacked my lead discussion into a Fourth Suit Forcing bidding discussion :(

[Winstonm]

Winstonm! Really? http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

 

Does no one bid this way with Jx, Axx, xxxx, AQJx?

 

I realize it is old-fashioned to open with a prepared bid but still, does everyone on earth these days open 1C? :D

[manudude03]

Does no one bid this way with Jx, Axx, xxxx, AQJx?

 

I realize it is old-fashioned to open with a prepared bid but still, does everyone on earth these days open 1C? :D

 

I'm a 1D opener on that, but I don't rebid 2C.

[Winstonm]

I'm a 1D opener on that, but I don't rebid 2C.

 

Thanks. I go w-a-y back, learning from a Goren book. It is difficult for us old dogs to rebid the reasonable 1N when prepared bids were preached to us - so much so that you were supposed to open 1H holding xx, AJ9x, KQxxx, Kx and rebid 2D. :rolleyes:

[jogs]

Imp and imp pairs, play to beat the contract. Not concerned whether West makes 9 or 11 tricks.

Make the play which maximizes our chances of beating the contract. If West has the ♥A, West

is probably making. If North has ♥ Axxx, we are beating the contract.

 

Don't duck the ♠K, win the ♠A and return the ♥J. The ♥6 would embarrassing if West

holds ♥ Q7x. If North holds ♥ AQxx, North better be alert and over take the ♥J.

Please unblock the suit.

[Kaitlyn S]

If North holds ♥ AQxx, North better be alert and over take the ♥J.

If North holds ♥AQxx, his bidding is very strange (either the 2C bid or the 3S bid.)

[Kaitlyn S]

Lead from 75, Q7432, AKJ2, T5 update from Bridgewinners:

 

The high diamond leaders have taken the lead! There are 20 of them.

19 votes for a low heart.

1 vote for the ♥7.

3 votes for "I would have led a low heart but you convinced me to lead the H7."

2 votes for "I would have led a high diamond but you convinced me to lead the H7."

2 votes for "I'm not sure."

15 abstentions.

6 votes for "other".

 

I suspect that I will no longer gain any support for the H7 since Kit Woolsey stated that if dummy had ♥J9x and declarer had ♥AT, partner would not play the ♥K and might cede the ninth trick. Apparently he has a far different opinion than I do about the likelihood of declarer getting nine tricks without the benefit of a heart trick. He suggests leading the ♥Q which can hardly cost if declarer has two hearts - when partner either sees the ♥J in dummy or later from declarer's hand, he'll know that it was from queen empty.

 

However, this does mean that a significant number of people would lead the ♥3 or ♥2 which makes a lot of my earlier posts (which assume partner should lead the ♥7 when you have four cashing diamond tricks) invalid. However, I still believe that playing declarer for ♥Qx is more likely to win than playing declarer for five small diamonds.

[Winstonm]

Lead from 75, Q7432, AKJ2, T5 update from Bridgewinners:

 

The high diamond leaders have taken the lead! There are 20 of them.

19 votes for a low heart.

1 vote for the ♥7.

3 votes for "I would have led a low heart but you convinced me to lead the H7."

2 votes for "I would have led a high diamond but you convinced me to lead the H7."

2 votes for "I'm not sure."

15 abstentions.

6 votes for "other".

 

I suspect that I will no longer gain any support for the H7 since Kit Woolsey stated that if dummy had ♥J9x and declarer had ♥AT, partner would not play the ♥K and might cede the ninth trick. Apparently he has a far different opinion than I do about the likelihood of declarer getting nine tricks without the benefit of a heart trick. He suggests leading the ♥Q which can hardly cost if declarer has two hearts - when partner either sees the ♥J in dummy or later from declarer's hand, he'll know that it was from queen empty.

 

However, this does mean that a significant number of people would lead the ♥3 or ♥2 which makes a lot of my earlier posts (which assume partner should lead the ♥7 when you have four cashing diamond tricks) invalid. However, I still believe that playing declarer for ♥Qx is more likely to win than playing declarer for five small diamonds.

 

I always appreciate the work you do on analysis - thanks. At the same time, isn't it possible that the problem is not really about the cards we can see but about the opponents' bidding? OP stated: IMP pairs, opps are good club players.

 

What does good club player mean? What are the agreements - if any - about rebids after 4th suit forcing? Is a partial stop enough to bid 2NT? Is a full stop required? Or is 2NT simply shape showing? Lots of questions, few answers.

 

Without arguing that my bidding methods are best, I simply follow what this bidding should mean in my understanding - at least Qxx of hearts but more likely Ax. To me, a strong argument for this position (that a stopper is held) is that opener bid NT twice and responder passed 3N with stiff K.

 

Unless there was a misunderstanding, I would think opener would raise to 4S rather than bid 2NT/3NT with Jx, Qx in the majors.

[Kaitlyn S]

To me, a strong argument for this position (that a stopper is held) is that opener bid NT twice and responder passed 3N with stiff K.

I think you remember the auction wrong. It's 1D-1S-2C-2H-2NT-3C-3S-3NT-P. Responder went back to 3NT.

 

I'm learning a lot from this problem - frankly a lot of the comments being made on BridgeWinners surprise me but these are players who play a lot more than I do so they probably know what they're talking about (and certainly Kit Woolsey knows what he's talking about.)

[Winstonm]

I think you remember the auction wrong. It's 1D-1S-2C-2H-2NT-3C-3S-3NT-P. Responder went back to 3NT.

 

I'm learning a lot from this problem - frankly a lot of the comments being made on BridgeWinners surprise me but these are players who play a lot more than I do so they probably know what they're talking about (and certainly Kit Woolsey knows what he's talking about.)

 

You're right - I have been under the impression this whole time that opener bid 3NT. Thanks