How do you bid these hands to possible slams?

[Stephen Tu]

Sure, you're right - 50% is the break-even point at IMPs. But that assumes double-dummy play, and having just watched the USBF finals and seeing players far better than I take substandard lines on key hands, I don't want to be in 50% slams for the most part.

 

Still don't understand the "assumes double-dummy play" thing. I want to be in any small slam that is > 50% *single dummy* success rate, which includes possibly both sub-optimal declarer play from me, and sub-optimal defense from the opponents. Against double dummy defenders, we never want to be in this slam, because opps cash their spade ace and we are less than 50% to pick up the trumps (single dummy). But in real life significantly often they won't cash the spade on the go, and some of the time you may even get an immensely helpful diamond lead.

 

Even if a player ends up taking a substandard line, it's still +EV to be in slam if their substandard line is still > 50% to make, like if their line turned say a 57% slam into a 51% slam. It's only if the slam is like 52% on optimal play and their substandard line dragged it below 50% that it is a "mistake" to be in the slam, and in that case, do we say the bid was a mistake or the play was a mistake? What if other table bid slam and declarer took better line and made it?

 

What matters is single dummy overall success rate. Not double dummy play. Not assuming 100% accuracy from either defense or declarer. Sure don't bid marginal slams if you don't have faith in your declarer play, but I generally have more faith in declaring accurately than being able to tell in the auction whether partner will come down with a dummy that is just laydown or on a hook, which is how you generally end up in these close slams, bidding thinking it's worst case on a hook and catching that case.

[sfi]

Addressing hand 1 only:

 

Curious what the cognoscenti would choose, I posted a poll on BW: 1 Spade or 2 Clubs?

 

Personally, I prefer 1♠, but would not shoot partner for opening 2♣.

 

Gotta love the single vote for 1C.

[proas]

#1 Opening only 2♣ - unbalanced hand and 21HCP.

Bidding system "2♣ strong" isn't easy in this case. Here are some bidding examples (Opp's bid Pass):

 

1) P - 2♣

2♥[8+, 5♥+] - 2♠[5♠+]

3♦ - 3♥

4♦!(1) - 5♦!(2)

5♥ - P/6♥(3)

(1) Cue. Don't cue bid in the ♠! If I had a single A♠, then I would cue bid 3♠; (2) Void ♦; (3) analysis and choose

 

2) P - 2♣

2♦ - 2♠

3♥[5♥+] - 5♦!(1)

5♥!(2) - P/6♥(3)

(1) Exclusion Blackwood; (2) 0 Aces; (3) analysis and choose

 

3) P - 2♣

2♥ - 3♥

3♠!(1) - 4♣!(1)

4♦!(1) - 5♦!(2)

5♥ - P/6♥(3)

(1) Cue; (2) Void ♦; (3) analysis and choose

 

4) P - 2♣

2♥ - 3♥

3♠!(1) - 5♦!(2)

5♥!(3) - P/6♥(4)

(1) Cue; (2) Exclusion Blackwood; (3) 0 Aces; (4) analysis and choose

 

 

Note!

I don't recommend bidding the 4NT-Blackwood by the opener, because if the respondent shows one ace, it isn't known in what suit (A♦? A♠?). It depends on whether to play 5♥ or 7♥.

[aguahombre]

On hand #2, the conditions are the problem. It is exactly WHY a hand in our NT range with 5M 3-3-2 should be opened 1nt.

 

After Opening 1S, South can never show more than a minimum opening bid (but less than 18-19) because she will never be asked. Good players have learned not to go slamming in notrump with their 17's opposite partner's 11-14 point 5-3-3-2's as a rule. There are some exceptions, but Responder's hand here is not one of them.