Jump to content

Which finesse is more likely to be onside?


Fluffy

Recommended Posts

[hv=pc=n&s=sat952hktd95cajt4&w=shda8c&n=sqj63h865dkqtcq98&e=shdj7c&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1s2d3dp4sppp]399|300[/hv]

 

Lead is A (East plays the Jack) and 8.

 

What is the best line?

 

You can assume that it is equally likely for West to double or overcall 2 with 1363 with weak diamonds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The most frequent EW distribution seems to be 2362 with West and 2524 with East. So with little else to go on that I can think of, it seems that the K is (much) more likely to be onside and that the correct play therefore is a trump to the ace and another trump. (Bonus: West might have the stiff trump king.)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm no expert (as I've honestly admitted before) but I would play Q at trick 3 and if not covered, unblock the 10. There's a possibility of being ruffed in a side suit, but how many players would not cover the Q with the K? West cleverly ducking with K is a risk I am prepared to take, but you are one trick further forward before deciding what do about the trump suit.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Q if not covered, 10 from hand to set up 6 as the second entry to dummy. First entry will be utilised for playing Q if not covered ,J from hand.If East has Kxxx & ducks all along, I will require the 2nd entry to dummy for finessing .
Link to comment
Share on other sites

trick 3 I will try the top dia with the intention of pitching a heart (I no longer have to worry about 2 heart losers) if rho has (a highly unlikely) 3 dia or fails to ruff. If rho does ruff I will overruff and bang down the spade A and another spade. If lho stated with Kx they may feel endplayed and defend improperly (nothing wrong with giving the defense a chance to make a mistake). Worst case scenario we should have enough dummy entries to take the club finesses and lead toward the heart K (if needed).
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the bidding and play to tricks 1 & 2, West has 6 diamonds and East has 2 diamonds.

 

There are 3 key cards you have to place, K, A, K

 

If West has all 3, you have to try to drop a singleton K (else you lose a spade, club, (1 or 2)hearts, and diamond)

 

If West has K, A, you have to play A and a spade. If you finesse in spades, West can play a diamond for East to ruff (unless spades are 3-1) and you have to lose 2 hearts, a spade and diamond). You can draw trump, pitch a heart on a good diamond, and take a couple of club finesses.

 

If West has K, K, you have to try to drop a singleton K, or you lose a spade, club, heart, diamond

 

If West has A, K, you have to take a spade finesse.

 

West should have at least 2 of the 3 keycards for a 2 overcall. So, I would play A and a spade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...