Tale of two declarers

[Cyberyeti]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakjt52hj3daqcjt4&n=s943haqt7d95ck985&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=pp1c(16%2B%20any)p1n(8-11)p4sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

The play:

 

6♣ led (2nd from 3 or 4 small, top of doubleton), E takes the ♣AQ W following with the 2 then plays a diamond.

 

Suggestions ?

[MrAce]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakjt52hj3daqcjt4&n=s943haqt7d95ck985&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=pp1c(16%2B%20any)p1n(8-11)p4sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

The play:

 

6♣ led (2nd from 3 or 4 small, top of doubleton), E takes the ♣AQ W following with the 2 then plays a diamond.

 

Suggestions ?

 

Due to the risk of ♣ ruff I'd go with ♦A, cash ♠ AK and make with or without an over trick depending on ♥ finesse.

If ♠ Q did not drop, then I need ♥ finesse anyway since i already lost 2 tricks and will lose a spade.

 

The reason I chose this line is, I expect E to hold doubleton club. With 4 he could give his pd a ruff, with 3 card clubs he would not have cashed the ♣A before he played ♦

Most important thing in my line is that E is coming from pass and we already saw him with AQ ♣. My line loses when E also has ♦K+♥K which makes him to have passed with 12 hcp.

[rmnka447]

I'm with Mr. Ace on this one.

 

The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.

 

If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.

 

If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.

[Cyberyeti]

I'm with Mr. Ace on this one.

 

The basic lines are either finesse the ♦ queen or use Mr. Ace's line.

 

If you finesse it's about a 55% chance if you believe East's ♣ are doubleton or 50% if Clubs break 3-3.

 

If you play ♦ A and ♠ AK, you always make anytime the ♠ Q falls. That comes out to be about 40% of 3-2 breaks (about 27%), 20% of the 4-1 break (another 6%). That totals up to about 33%. In addition, you also make if the ♠ Q doesn't fall and the ♥ finesse works with ♥ 4-3 (about 21%), with 5-2 ♥ if spades are 3-2 (about 7%) plus some additional amount that the long trumps are in the hand with the long ♥. That comes out to about a 61-62% chance of success.

 

You have a 9 card spade fit (6-3) so working out how the remaining 5 split is not the prime concern.

 

I was with Mr Ace too, as was the declarer at the other table, unfortunately partner wasn't, and he was at the wheel.

[rmnka447]

Thanks Cyberyeti. Getting old, I'm looking at a 9 card fit and seeing 8. Grrrr.

 

So you're looking at success 40% of the time when ♠ break 2-2 plus 25% of the time that they break 3-1 (about 12.5%) when the ♠ Q falls. In addition, you also have success when when the ♠ Q doesn't fall -- if ♥ break 4-3 with the finesse working (about 15%), ♥ break 5-2 with the finesse on and ♠ break 3-1, or if ♥ break 5-2 with 4 ♠ in the long hand. That's probably something like a 75-80% chance of success.