How high do you bid?

[eagles123]

thank god for the "ignore user" option

[Vampyr]

In groupthink, "group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints by actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints." Calling PASS was definitely an alternative viewpoint that was suppressed though "aggregation" of poll results AND by trying to suggest the 33% voting block is full of potentially rank amateurs.

 

There is no "group"on BBO to conform to.

[RedSpawn]

There is no "group"on BBO to conform to.

 

When the collective hears an alternative idea that doesn't conform to their sensibilities, the attack formation begins.

 

I am okay with the attack formation.

 

We take a vote. I am okay with the vote.

 

However, if the vote shows that calling pass on T98765432♥ is not as insane as the author purported it to be, OWN THE OUTCOME. No bid/call had a majority at the time and the poll forerunners were 4♥ and PASS.

 

To try and throw a poisoned dart and suggest (indirectly) the 33% voting block is rife with rank amateurs to STILL HOLD ONTO the "insane" narrative is consistent with a groupthink maneuver.

[johnu]

When the collective hears an alternative idea that doesn't conform to their sensibilities, the attack formation begins.

 

I am okay with the attack formation.

 

Is your alternative idea the same as an alternative fact? In any case, this is called Attack Formation Echo-3 IIRC.

 

We take a vote. I am okay with the vote.

 

However, if the vote shows that calling pass on T98765432♥ is not as insane as the author purported it to be, OWN THE OUTCOME. No bid/call had a majority at the time and the poll forerunners were 4♥ and PASS.

 

To try and throw a poisoned dart and suggest (indirectly) the 33% voting block is rife with rank amateurs to STILL HOLD ONTO the "insane" narrative is consistent with a groupthink maneuver.

 

67% of the responders chose something other than pass. All 67% are essentially saying we see the suit quality, but a 9 card suit should be opened. The exact level of the opening is up for debate, but basically 50% of all the voters chose 4♥. Pass is a minority position, no matter how you slice it.

 

I know and respect some of the people who voted for pass, but I think they are completely wrong to pass. There are twice as many non-passers, and many more "name" players among the 4♥ openers.

 

I ran some double dummy simulations on Dealmaster Pro with random hands for the other 3 players.

 

4♥ makes 8 or more tricks 76%, 9 or more 59%, 10 or more 32%, and slam 6%

 

The opponents can make 9 tricks or more in 3NT 68% and have a slam 18%.

The opponents can make 10 tricks or more in 4♠ 49% and have a slam 15%

The opponents can make 11 tricks or more in 5♣ 30% and have a slam 16%

The opponents can make 11 tricks or more in 5♦ 23% and have a slam 12%

 

Obviously partner is almost always going to pass 4♥. Your chances of making game or better in another suit or NT is pretty close to zero in my 200 hand sample size. If slam is a possibility in hearts, partner can use RKC to check for keycards.

 

The opponents contract percentages need some context. The opponents hands are random after taking out the cards in the 9 card heart suit hand. 3NT going down includes hand where the opponents don't have any heart stopper as an example. 4♠ includes hands where the opponents have 7 or fewer spades). The percentages of makeable contracts is a lot higher if you eliminate "silly" contracts that wouldn't be bid on the actual cards.

 

How should you interpret the simulations? Holding only 2 HCP, this is overwhelmingly going to be the opponents hand, so 4♥ is either going to be a good sacrifice (or making), or you are forcing the opponents to make a decision starting at the 4 or 5 level instead of getting in a couple of bids at the 1 or 2 level. I know where I want the opponents to have make their first decision.

[MrAce]

http://americanprofile.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/why-is-yawning-contagious-670x405.jpg

[Vampyr]

When the collective hears an alternative idea that doesn't conform to their sensibilities, the attack formation begins.

 

As for me, I don't care about the hand or vote. I do object to your talking about the "collective" and "attack formation" because, honestly, there is no such thing. Read another thread, and see how much agreement there is within the so-called collective.

[mycroft]

Yeah, Vampyr, we're always on the same side. And so is Nige1, gordontd, barmar, blackshoe,...

 

(by the way, Vampyr, when is this month's "agree with you" bottle going to show up?)

[kuhchung]

i can't believe i just the whole thread

[xbabarx]

4♥ come what may :D

[xbabarx]

http://americanprofile.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/why-is-yawning-contagious-670x405.jpg

 

:D