lamford Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 [hv=pc=n&w=s6haj6432dkj872ck&e=sah975daqt4ca9873&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=p1c1s2d(5%2B%20hearts)4sdp6dppp]266|200[/hv]Trailing in the Vanderbilt final, you are pushing and reach the reasonable slam here. North leads the Q♠. You win and draw trumps in two rounds. How do you play the hearts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrecisionL Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 If ♥s are 2-2, it doesn't matter. If not, then low toward the J. (but, I hate first round finesses!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted March 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 If ♥s are 2-2, it doesn't matter. If not, then low toward the J. (but, I hate first round finesses!)I agree with the first sentence. But you do need to say what you play if South plays the eight or the ten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfi Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 On the bidding I would expect North to have a singleton somewhere, so I would think hearts are 3-1. If North's singleton is the ten or eight, South's will always play the other low card. If the singleton is an honour, South will play each of the 8 and 10 some percentage of the time. Simple restricted choice leads to playing the jack. On the other hand declarer, who played in the final and I didn't, played for a singleton honour in North. I presume I am missing something, which may be as simple as trying to generate a swing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 [hv=pc=n&w=s6haj6432dkj872ck&e=sah975daqt4ca9873&d=n&v=n&b=5&a=p1c1s2d(5%2B%20hearts)4sdp6dppp]266|200|Trailing in the Vanderbilt final, you are pushing and reach the reasonable slam here. North leads the Q♠. You win and draw trumps in two rounds. How do you play the hearts?[/hv]Opponents have 14 HCP between them and LHO led ♠Q, often showing ♠QJ. Whatever restricted-choice suggests, RHO, who bid 1♠ is quite likely to hold most of the remaining 11 HCP, including the ♥ honours. Hence, declarer might decide to finesse ♥ knave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 duplicate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yunling Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 The problem here is, if south holds HT8, whether is there a higher chance that he will play 8 or T.Against intermediate players, I believe most of them will play 8 quickly so if T appears, usually 8 would be in north's hand, thus finessing with J is the correct play. Against strong players who are able to notice the effect it's 50-50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfi Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 Opponents have 14 HCP between them and LHO led ♠Q. Whatever restricted-choice suggests, RHO, who opened 1♠ is likely to hold most of the remaining 12 HCP, including the ♥ honours. Hence, IMO declarer should finesse ♥ knave. The 1S bid was an overcall, not an opening bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nekthen Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 (edited) The 1S bid was an overcall, not an opening bid. No but it is a red v green overcall. Also South overcalled 1S not 2S. So North has a 6 card S suit headed by the QJ. Yet did not open a weak 2.There is a big assumption that the lead denies the KS. In the circumstances it could be an interesting false card opportunity.Another point for the J is that the split could even be 4 0 in hearts given the leap to 4S Edited March 22, 2017 by nekthen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvr bull Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 My guess is that N would open 2S if he had QJxxxx void xx QJxxx, but he needs something like that for the red jump to 4S. I will play him for a H honor and 3 or 4 clubs instead of CQJxxx. So I play the HA first, then lead toward the HJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alok c Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 As nige 1 said ,after North shown ♠Q chance of South holding ♥KQ is more.To be reasonably sure of that I would play ♣K before touching ♦.♣K, low ♦, ♣ruff, low ♦, ♣A. If by this it is indicated that North holds at least one ♣ honour,I would be reasonably sure to finesse ♥J. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted March 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 The main reason for playing the jack is that it also gains when South has KQT8, as you can ruff the suit good. You do not know if 6D will be reached in the other room, so there is no reason to make the wrong play to create a swing. One small improvement is to lead the 9 from dummy, as most South's will cover if they have the 10 8, although they should, in theory, play randomly. The jack picks up all 2-2s (about 41%), both KQx onside, around 25%, and also KQTx onside - another 4.5%, and this last is the main gain of the jack. I also think North is unlikely to have a singleton KH for his adverse pre-raise to 4S, as that is a big defensive value of little offensive use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 I also think North is unlikely to have a singleton KH for his adverse pre-raise to 4S, as that is a big defensive value of little offensive use.Disagree, North would be 5125 or 6124 with QJ of trumps - he/she will always bid 4♠ no matter whether it's a small or honour singleton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 I have a math question for all the genius out there and this hand is a good example. In order for 6d to succeed we have 2 plausible LOP heart A and lead to the J OR lead to the J immediately.In order to determine which is best I have a curious question. We NEED SOUTH to hold certain distribution(s) AND since both LOP handle all 22 splits those are irrelevant to choosing which lop to use.Thus SOUTH needs to have started with: (or a bunch of other irrelevant distributions)KQT8KQTKQ8KT8QT8My question now is does this change the odds dramatically in favor of playing to the J? It would seem that of the IMPORTANT remaining distributions playing to the J caters to 60% while playing the A caters to 40%. While there are other factors like the bidding etc that change the odds I am curious WHY or WHY NOT does this highly limited set not more accurately reflect which LOP should be chosen vs one that merely reflects a pool of all the possible distributions???????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 I think the tipping factor is the lead. Leading a low heart singleton is an attractive alternative to leading a spade (which cannot setup a trick). Leading an honor singleton in declarer's long suit is much more dubious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 As nige 1 said ,after North shown ♠Q chance of South holding ♥KQ is more.To be reasonably sure of that I would play ♣K before touching ♦.♣K, low ♦, ♣ruff, low ♦, ♣A. If by this it is indicated that North holds at least one ♣ honour,I would be reasonably sure to finesse ♥J.This line is dangerous if defenders trumps break 3-1 :( You get a bonus, however, if ♣QJT are tripleton. You can cash ♣98 and lead a ♥ towards the ♥J, losing only to a most unlikely ♥KQT with LHO :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alok c Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 This line is dangerous if defenders trumps break 3-1 :( You get a bonus, however, if ♣QJT are tripleton. You can cash ♣98 and lead a ♥ towards the ♥J, losing only to a most unlikely ♥KQT with LHO :)Why? I will play an extra round of trump & then cash ♣A & lead ♥ as usual & finesse J.Depending upon North's holding (H singleton,small singleton ), i will lose one or two tricks.Advantage of playing Club this way is if North or South holds doubleton Club with one Honours it will be revealed & will help to decide Heart play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msjennifer Posted March 22, 2017 Report Share Posted March 22, 2017 How would one have tackled trumps if the contract was 6H and not 6D ? Well,just play the same way here.Do you get me Steve? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted March 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 How would one have tackled trumps if the contract was 6H and not 6D ? Well,just play the same way here.Do you get me Steve?There is quite a big difference. Around 5% in fact. In 6D you can ruff the hearts good when South has ♥KQT8, but in 6H there is no way to pick up the trumps for one loser. In 6H it is very close between low to the jack and low to the ace. But in 6D, it is clear to play low to the jack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted March 23, 2017 Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 There is quite a big difference. Around 5% in fact. In 6D you can ruff the hearts good when South has ♥KQT8, but in 6H there is no way to pick up the trumps for one loser. In 6H it is very close between low to the jack and low to the ace. But in 6D, it is clear to play low to the jack. That assumes they do not lead their small stiff vs slams (or they have void)Would you not lead your stiff? You win when pd has ♥A or trump A. Idk, playing opening leader not to have led his stiff is a big decision imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamford Posted March 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 That assumes they do not lead their small stiff vs slams (or they have void)Would you not lead your stiff? You win when pd has ♥A or trump A. Idk, playing opening leader not to have led his stiff is a big decision imo.A good point, but here South bid spades and, if partner does have an ace, it is much more likely to be the ace of spades. And West showed 5+ hearts with his original 2♦. So, no, I would not lead my stiff, being very fearful that partner has the queen of hearts and the ace of spades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamijd Posted March 23, 2017 Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 You can give yourself a slight extra chance in case South has 5125 with K(J) fifth of spades and QJTxx of clubs. Take the K and Ac before playing hearts. Then if South has a stiff ten, North gets endplayed. Even without this wrinkle, the hook is a slightly better % play, as you can pick up 40 with South. Cheers,MIke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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