This cost me thousands of euros

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&s=saq952hqj87daqckt&n=s6hk52d63caqj8654&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1sp2cp2hp3cp4cp4hp4np5cp6nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Lead is ♣7, plan the play.

[Lovera]

The initial play has to be in heart suit.

[Kaitlyn S]

Let me take a stab. My analysis will probably make it very clear why I don't play for thousands of euros :D

 

First, I think West is more likely to have the ♦K because he chose a potentially dangerous club lead rather than a "safe" diamond lead (West doesn't know that N-S have the ♣Q.)

 

I don't believe there's a way to play to make on either 3-3 hearts or the spade finesse as they can duck the first two hearts.

 

So I'll advance the ♥Q. I presume they are ducking this (if they win, I'll provide a solution but I don't think they're going to make my life easy. Then I play a ♥ to the ♥K.

 

(1) Let's say this wins and East was the one that followed with the ♥10 or ♥9. Now I run clubs, and unless their cards tell me to keep something different, I'm coming down to ♠A, ♥J, ♦AQ. If both hearts are still out against me after I cash the ♠A, I am hoping that West has bared the ♦K, and if West tosses a heart on the ♠A, I hopefully toss him in with the last heart to lead a diamond.

 

(2) Now, if West followed with the ♥10 or ♥9, I'm applying restricted choice - I'm running clubs, keeping the two hearts and the two aces and taking the heart finesse.

 

(3) If West wins the second heart, I'm home free (so probably he would have won the first, if so, I'll analyze that if needed.

 

(4) If East wins the second heart (West plays no 10 or 9), and returns a diamond, I rise, cash the third heart (I have no squeeze against West anyway) and run clubs. I finesse spades unless it's obvious not to.

 

(5) If East wins the second heart (West plays no 10 or 9) and returns a spade, I have to decide. I think the fact that no interesting heart showed makes 3-3 hearts a favorite, so I rise ♠A, cash the ♦A and run clubs. If East has four hearts and ♠K, I'm still okay.

 

(6) If East wins the second heart (West plays no 10 or 9) and leads a club (pretty strong defense!), I'm playing for 3-3 hearts.

 

(6) If East wins the second heart (West plays an honor), I'm playing East for the heart length (kudos to West from playing a high spot from ♥109xx!) and finessing if East leads a heart, and intending to finesse hearts later unless the discards on the clubs tell me that something else is indicated.

 

Cool problem, and I wouldn't be surprised if somebody can totally improve on my line.

[wanoff]

Not without risk, I'll win the ♣J and play a heart to Q.

If this holds and clubs weren't 4-0, I'll cash the clubs pitching the pointed suits.Now a heart to towards the J, winning if hearts split or East holds Ax. Other slight chances are for West to have 109 doubleton or one of those stiff.

If however ♥Q loses, there are various chances, mainly hearts 3-3 + probably the spade finesse.

[Lovera]

If W wins in heart it seems obviuos doesn't have to lead spade or diamond.

[1eyedjack]

We appear to have 11 tricks, A twelfth can come from a long heart, a successful diamond finesse, or finding the King of spades (either by dropping it or a finesse, but you don't get to choose both).

 

As for the Spade suit in isolation, the finesse is slightly better than the drop. But it is a unilateral commitment that does not allow you to combine any chances.

 

As for the Heart suit in isolation, the classic line is to lead low twice up to the QJxx. This picks up a 3-3 break or Ax sitting over the King. But you will need to draw trumps at some reasonably early point or you are vulnerable to a Heart ruff.

 

My initial thoughts were:

 

Win trick 1 in the short suit and play Ace of Spades and ruff a Spade. Then low Heart to Queen, which I assume wins. Ruff another Spade. Assume that the Spade King has not yet fallen, or it is already hand end.

 

Now it seems to be crunch time. If we lead another low Heart toward J and second hand hops in with Ace and leads a Diamond through AQ, you are cut off from the Hearts unless you commit to the Diamond finesse in which case catering for Ax of Hearts is otiose. Likewise if you bash out the King of Hearts at least you have not blocked the suit but are left with deciding on the Diamond finesse v Heart break without the option to combine the chances. that would seem to indicate the finesse. On the other hand the Ace of Hearts could be sitting over the QJ, which would allow you to test the Hearts and Spades before committing to the D finesse.

 

Perhaps you should give up on an early establishment of the Spade Queen by force. That gives you an extra entry to the long Hearts. So ....

 

Win trick 1 in the LONG trump suit, and immediately play a Heart up to QJ. Say it wins. Draw trumps ending in hand and lead another low Heart up to QJ. Say second hand hops in with Ace and leads Diamond. Rise with Ace and unblock Heart. Now you have Spade entry to the long Heart. Yes I think that feels to me like the best line. If everything goes wrong you still have a Spade finesse.

 

PS I think this is wanoff's line. Just took my sweet time getting there.

[SteveMoe]

Win ♣K and small ♥ to K. If taken by West you have 3 ♥ tricks and 12 by 1=3=1=7. Assume East wins and switches to ♦x. Win A and play ♥QJ perhaps the 4th ♥ is good. If not, then run ♣ looking for simple or double played as simple. If you are allowed to win 2♥ tricks, then run ♣ and decide by discards whether to attempt a ♥ endplay or to set up your 4th ♥ or to finesse in a pointed suit based on your count of West's hand. If West led from a 4-card ♣ suit you have some guessing to do. If they led form a 3-card suit, they probably hold the missing honors in the two 4-card suits they didn't lead. This hand lends itself to counting both opponents so that will work in our favor. Hopefully, West isn't good enough to come down to K - Kxx - or vice versa in the 4-card ending.

[Kaitlyn S]

Win trick 1 in the short suit and play Ace of Spades and ruff a Spade.

I think the contract is 6NT

[1eyedjack]

I think the contract is 6NT

 

Haha just as well that I ditched that line in favour of wanoff's :)

[Fluffy]

I didn't want to spoil it, but the winners of the tournament managed to declare 6♣ from soth after a strong club opening and made it with yet another club lead, what would you do then?

 

About 6NT, clubs are not 4-0, and west will win ♥Q with ♥A no matter if you played it from hand or led from dummy, and return ♥10.

[stoppiello]

Assuming clubs aren't 4-0 seems like you have an easy line to set up the 5th spade and test for 3/3 hearts and if neither of those work you still have the diamond finesse. club lead won in S A!s and spade ruff, club to dummy, spade ruff (with high trump if E is the one with 3 trumps if they don't split) now, either they have both followed 3 times in the spade suit and you have the heart and diamond entries to set it up, or someone shows out and now you test the hearts. If you have to draw a third trump, can throw spade if it won't set up, heart if it does.

 

in 6N I'm simple minded.....win the club in hand, heart to the K, heart back to the Q. If W wins this and leads back the 10H I know where I stand there. Assuming they're not 3/3 here comes the clubs and see what happens. When I lead the last club, will have AQ AQ left in hand, and will take the finesse in whichever one I believe E to be longer in.

[Kaitlyn S]

The club lead which is more likely to come from length than a singleton, increases the chances for some of the doubleton heart holdings in West that I'm looking for, and decreases the chances of doubleton ace (or any other doubleton) in East.

 

Don't believe me about that club lead? Then maybe you don't empathize with a West that leads a singleton club and picks off jack fourth or queen third in East.

 

Also, West is likely to lead a diamond from most holdings headed by JT or T9 or 98. Darn good chance West has the DK.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=saq952hqj87daqckt&n=s6hk52d63caqj8654&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1sp2cp2hp3cp4cp4hp4np5cp6nppp]266|200| Lead is ♣7, plan the play.

 

I didn't want to spoil it, but the winners of the tournament managed to declare 6♣ from South after a strong club opening and made it with yet another club lead, what would you do then?

 

About 6NT, clubs are not 4-0, and west will win ♥Q with ♥A no matter if you played it from hand or led from dummy, and return ♥10.[/hv]

 

1. In 6♣, I like Stoppiello's line: Ruff 3 ♠s. If neither major behaves, then finesse ♦Q.
2. In 6N, I like WanOff's line. Win ♣. Play ♥x to ♥Q. LHO wins and returns a ♥T. Win ♥ KQ. If ♥ 4-2, then guess to take the ♠ finesse, rather than a ♥ or ♦ finesse. I apologise if LHO was dealt ♠ K x x x x ♥ A T ♦ K x x x x ♣ 7 :(

[Lovera]

About 6NT Fluffy says that is possible to realize. Than lacking informations points usually are 50-50(=6-6) or 60-40(=7-5) and four points are revealed.Now it needs to think that if ♥ are 3-3 the 9 is dropped and ♥ 8 is the 12th trick but what if it is not ?

[Fluffy]

 

in 6N I'm simple minded.....win the club in hand, heart to the K, heart back to the Q. If W wins this and leads back the 10H I know where I stand there. Assuming they're not 3/3 here comes the clubs and see what happens. When I lead the last club, will have AQ AQ left in hand, and will take the finesse in whichever one I believe E to be longer in.

The problem with this simple line is that west will win second heart and return a club, now you have no entries to dummy and can't test hearts vbefore running clubs

[mlbridge]

My best guess. Win the 10♥ with J, play ♥ back to K, assume ♥ don't break and W have the 4th ♥. Run ♣, discarding 3 ♠, then the ♥. On the last ♣, discard the Q from whichever suit W was not discarding and take the finesse.

 

If E have the 4th ♥, run the ♣ and take the finesse in whichever suit E was protecting.

 

If W is a very good player, do not trust the discards and just take the ♠ finesse since there is better chance the ♠ K is onside.

[alok c]

♣K,♥Q,♥J - if ducked, cash all ♣.It will make if both Ks are in same hand.If ♥J loses, go up with A for any return,♥ K & cash ♣.IT will make for ♥3-3 & both Ks in same hand.

[Lovera]

At this point you discover to have three finesse to consider with a good probability to get wrong. But there is a way to avoid it at all(=no finesse) squeezing E (in three suits too) and controlling discard also in unilaterals: win with ♥ K rescoiting the Aces and returning in dummy to run club suit. You realize by heart discarting or if in heart suit are three cards(=9 in W or E) in E or if the remaining King discarted makes winner the corrispondent Queen.

[msjennifer]

At this point you discover to have three finisse to consider with a good probability to get wrong. But there is a way to avoid it at all(=no finesse) squeezing E (in three suits too) and controlling discard also in unilaterals: win with ♥ K rescoiting the Aces and returning in dummy to run club suit. You realize by heart discarting or if in heart suit are three cards(=9 in W or E) in E or if the remaining King discarted makes winner the corrispondent Queen.

If ,as you say ,East holds both Kings then no need to squeeze him.Just take finesse and claim.

[ahydra]

Sorry for off-topic, but how would you call the triple squeeze that Lovera suggests?

 

N: ♠- ♥x ♦x ♣xx

E: ♠K ♥J10 ♦K ♣-

S: ♠Q ♥Q9 ♦Q ♣-

 

It looks like some sort of "triple squeeze without the count" as North has two squeeze cards to cash but only the first one actually squeezes East.

 

ahydra

[Lovera]

If ,as you say ,East holds both Kings then no need to squeeze him.Just take finesse and claim.

The squeeze play allow to avoid finesse or is used when there is ambiguity about position. I don't want to guess (i. e. see 9 in heart suit that can be in W or in E).

[Lovera]

Sorry for off-topic, but how would you call the triple squeeze that Lovera suggests?

 

N: ♠- ♥x ♦x ♣xx

E: ♠K ♥J10 ♦K ♣-

S: ♠Q ♥Q9 ♦Q ♣-

 

It looks like some sort of "triple squeeze without the count" as North has two squeeze cards to cash but only the first one actually squeezes East.

 

ahydra

The "triple sequenze without the court" is an indirect squeeze so called because opp are involved on play after squeeze card is lead. This mine is a direct squeeze instead and is (Third type in Love terminology) a triple squeeze with one loser acting a trick before last free winner and gain only a trick (opp are not involved but for discarding).

[Kaitlyn S]

So I'll advance the ♥Q. I presume they are ducking this (if they win, I'll provide a solution but I don't think they're going to make my life easy.

 

So they won my ♥Q and returned the ♥10. I cash the third heart. If West has the fourth heart, I'll cash the DA and run clubs and take the spade finesse unless a miracle occurred.

 

If East has the last heart, I'll cash the DA and run clubs which will allow me to make when when East has the ♠K or West has it singleton. Occasionally I'll make it if East doesn't realize the value of keeping the ♦6 covered.

 

I hope West hasn't duped me with ♥A 10 doubleton.

[wanoff]

So they won my ♥Q and returned the ♥10. I cash the third heart. If West has the fourth heart, I'll cash the DA and run clubs and take the spade finesse unless a miracle occurred.

 

If East has the last heart, I'll cash the DA and run clubs which will allow me to make when when East has the ♠K or West has it singleton. Occasionally I'll make it if East doesn't realize the value of keeping the ♦6 covered.

 

I hope West hasn't duped me with ♥A 10 doubleton.

 

What about being 'duped' by: Kxx A109x Kxxxx x ?

[msjennifer]

I wonder why no one has suggested riffing out the spades because thre are enough entries to try that.SA ,S ruff,CK,S ruff,and now remove the last outstanding trump and play a heart towards Queen .You have one entry in hearts to ruff one more spade and if the King does appear you can enter by DA and discard the other diamond from dummy on SQ and dummy is good.If the king does not appear you can try for 3/3 hearts or if that fails fall back upon the diamond finesse as a last chance.