Phil Posted February 8, 2017 Report Share Posted February 8, 2017 IMPs - critical final swiss match mmy: AK62J4T953763 ............QT54............Q9763............4............A52 1N 2C 2D 2N 3N IN is 15-17 Partner leads the cT. This will be from a 4 card holding or longer headed by the J or KJ, KT9, T9x, or shorter. You hop Ace and declarer drops the Q. What next? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted February 9, 2017 Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 IMPs - critical final swiss match mmy: AK62J4T953763 ............QT54............Q9763............4............A52 1N 2C 2D 2N 3N IN is 15-17 Partner leads the cT. This will be from a 4 card holding or longer headed by the J or KJ, KT9, T9x, or shorter. You hop Ace and declarer drops the Q. What next? The hand for declarer that makes most sense to me in light of the bidding is: Jxx, Axx, AKxxx, KQ. I really wanted to find a hand where it was critical to switch to a heart, but those seemed too unlikely. although a falsecard with the Q is certainly possible. A really good declarer might even play the Q from Qx, hoping to feign strength in the club suit - although for that to matter here declarer would have to be 2262. It feels wrong, but I think the right play is believe the Q a true card from KQ tight and to return a club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaitlyn S Posted February 9, 2017 Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 It feels wrong, but I think the right play is believe the Q a true card from KQ tight and to return a club.I came to the same conclusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted February 9, 2017 Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 I came to the same conclusion. I always knew you were smart - just misguided. :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 The hand for declarer that makes most sense to me in light of the bidding is: Jxx, Axx, AKxxx, KQ. You can also shift to a heart on this layout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted February 9, 2017 Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 You can also shift to a heart on this layout. But if declarer has 2 club trick and 2 spade tricks, he has to have 5 diamond tricks, perhaps Jxx, xx, AKQxx, KQJ, but I assumed in that case partner may not have led 10 of clubs. I thought it as likely that a heart switch would present declarer with a chance for his 9th trick with a hand like xxx, Kxx, AKQxx, KQ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 But if declarer has 2 club trick and 2 spade tricks, he has to have 5 diamond tricks, perhaps Jxx, xx, AKQxx, KQJ, but I assumed in that case partner may not have led 10 of clubs. I thought it as likely that a heart switch would present declarer with a chance for his 9th trick with a hand like xxx, Kxx, AKQxx, KQ Well, if partner led the wrong honor it will be a long ride home :) xxx Kxx AKQxx KQ looks like an upgrade out of 1N to me? Ill stop nitpicking. I waffled between hands with open clubs: xxx Ax AKQxxx Qx and hands with open hearts xx xxx AKQxxx KQ and figured the former was 6x more likely. At least. Declarer had the latter. Should partner track a heart with Jxx AKx xx JTxxx? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted February 9, 2017 Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 Well, if partner led the wrong honor it will be a long ride home :) xxx Kxx AKQxx KQ looks like an upgrade out of 1N to me? Ill stop nitpicking. I waffled between hands with open clubs: xxx Ax AKQxxx Qx and hands with open hearts xx xxx AKQxxx KQ and figured the former was 6x more likely. At least. Declarer had the latter. Should partner track a heart with Jxx AKx xx JTxxx? That's a good question and I'm not quite sure. Can we analyze the win/lose position of leading a heart honor? It would be really questionable to lead an honor from AK10 in this auction, but AKx does not seem so problematic. I appreciate your problem as defender but I don't know if there is a genuine solution other than a different (not necessarily better) lead convention. I always remember that Hamman wrote about really hating lead conventions that give away too much information. But I have yet to win a board against Hamman, so I need more information that he does, it seems. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 Yeah we joked about how awesome jack denies is after the hand. Joe Kivel insists on them when we play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted February 9, 2017 Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 Yeah we joked about how awesome jack denies is after the hand. Joe Kivel insists on them when we play. I certainly feel for your problem. I would not have made the right play at the table. Don't know if that helps. :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmnka447 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Share Posted February 10, 2017 On this auction, opener rates to have a minor hand 5-3-3-2, 4-4-3-2 (both minors), or even a 4-3-3-3 (4 card minor). So leading a minor is more dangerous on this auction. ♥ might be our suit, but Q9xxx takes quite a bit in partner's hand to make the switch right. The opening lead has also removed our entry for long tricks in ♥ anyhow. OTOH, ♣ Q looks like a real card probably from KQ. If declarer is smart enough to false card from KQJ to induce a ♣ return, I'll tip my hat to him/her after the hand. Think I'll apply the Fred Will principle on this hand. I'll be more comfortable explaining returning a ♣ versus an unsure ♥ switch in the post mortem. Like Fred would have said "If my partner leads a suit, I return partner's suit unless there's a darn good reason to do otherwise." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2017 Good point about the club suit. On this auction it seems very likely partner has a very good holding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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