ruckus

[nige1]

I did not write the code myself, but used bespoke software, and I am nowhere near competent enough to generate the code! A peer poll is useful, but I for now, often change my mind when "Computer says no", as David Walliams would say.

OK. I simulated results for various strength openers using the following crude dealer-script code:

#
# Dealer script. 
# [url="http://bridgebase.com/tools/dealer/dealer.php"][/url]
# You hold SQ874 H86 DJT7 CQ865
# Partner has a balanced 26 HCP.
#
produce 10 # Bump this parameter to produce more deals.
predeal south SQ874, H86, DJT7, CQ865
W2D = hcp (west, diamonds) > 4 and diamonds (west) > 4
N3N =  hcp (north, diamonds) > 2 and 
hcp (north, diamonds) < 7 and
shape (north, any 4333 + any 4423 + any 5332 - 5xxx - x5xx - xx5x) and
hcp (north) == 26 # Change parameter for different opener strengths,
condition W2D and N3N
action printall # Change to printpbn for a pbn file for separate analysis.

Analysis of results confirms Lamford's conclusion that 6N is often a good contract.

Nevertheless, IMO, the hesitation makes 4N safer by reducing the likelihood of a midrange opener.

[gordontd]

Analysis of results confirms Lambert's conclusion that 6N is often a good contract.

Who is this Lambert to whom you keep referring?

[nige1]

Who is this Lambert to whom you keep referring?

Thank you for pointing our my mistake, Gordon. Sorry Paul: I've tried to correct my misspellings

[nige1]

Looks like there's now a BW thread discussing this same hand.

 

http://bridgewinners...e-2-7ckut8691n/

 

-- with a poll -- currrently 60% vote that the TD and AC should both roll the contract back to 3N+3.

[sfi]

Given that the distribution of hands with 25 to 28 is as follows:

28 0.00

27 0.00

26 0.02

25 0.05

With the figures being to two decimal places, I expect the answer to your question is a round number.

 

So do I. Which is why the description of "one time he had 28" is, to me, a strong indication that it's worth catering for that possibility rather than suggesting that partner bids most 28 counts another way.

[mycroft]

My issue with all of that logic work is that "tank-3NT" means that almost all of those 7% are - gone. Partner doesn't have anything but the worst 25 (and my guess is that people "almost never" downgrade, and "very rarely" even *think* about downgrading); and no 26s or 27s. Partner either has something offshape (in which case bidding to give partner another chance to show is probably okay) or a hand where he really really doesn't want me to pass, but I could have nothing (but I don't have nothing).

 

I guess the biggest other question is "my diamond stopper is inflexible" - Kx or the like. In which case, you're happy to be in NT; but I don't think that hand suggests that "catering to the overstrength 3NT call" is a bad idea - partner will just happily pass, and we'll be 4NT+1 instead of 3NT+2.

 

My argument boils down to a feeling that a quick happy 3NT would have been explained as "25-27" and that one time partner had 28 wouldn't come to mind. The tank brought it to mind for the explanation, and the 4NT was catering to it happening again.

 

But I'm biased; when people hesitate-call against me, they welcome action from partner. And they frequently get it.