Lead Problem

[lamford]

[hv=pc=n&s=sakt842h5dt943c73&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=pp1n(15-17)2d(one%20major)d2spp3hp3nppp]133|200[/hv]

Your partner's 2S showed heart support, and their 3H was natural and forcing. Your lead.

[Cyberyeti]

Scoring ? May also depend what the X was.

[helene_t]

♦

[lamford]

Double was values. Scoring is IMPs

[alok c]

♥5

[Cyberyeti]

Double was values. Scoring is IMPs

 

What lead would X from partner of the final contract have asked for ?

[lamford]

.

[lamford]

Usually we play X says lead your own suit

[lamford]

If we have made a lead directing double earlier then a final double says lead that suit.

[Cyberyeti]

Usually we play X says lead your own suit

 

Well I'm very minimum, so partner could have enough to find a double. The reason I asked was in case X would imply a heart lead, in which case I would rule that out.

 

This is pretty tough, partner could easily have ♠xx and not realise this is enough, but a spade lead could be disastrous opposite a stiff.

 

I probably lead a small spade but don't like it.

[gszes]

Hopefully that 2s bid meant more than just heart support but also a willingness to raise to at least 3h if that was your suit. P has some stuff so what seems best? If rho had something like QJxx they very easily might have chosen to x 2s rather then pass.

I will go with a small spade. Yes it can be a complete failure if p has a singleton but it is at worst a break even if p has a doubleton and maybe a killer if p has a doubleton (lho began with a singleton spade honor or spades split 322*). Any other lead is just guess work and hoping rho started with QJ of spades and p can lead spades TWICE so we can take advantage of that position.

 

* could it be the sublime position where p has Qx of spades and rho bid 3n with J9xx nahhhhhhhhhh but who knows I have seen worse 3n bids than that.

[lamford]

A spade lead was indeed needed. Declarer had QJx of spades and partner xxx. It gives declarer his eighth trick but not his ninth, and my chosen heart was too slow. Partner did have five hearts, but it still did not help. I now think a spade is right. Good point about declarer being likely to double 2S with QJxx.

[cherdano]

Spade seems totally normal. Diamond is possible, but I really don't like the heart lead. Partner has shown 3+ hearts, but dummy has shown 5+ in my view.

[Winstonm]

10♠

[Cyberyeti]

10♠

 

10 is bad if the spades are J/Q, xx, J/Q9xx round the table, I'm leading a small one, think this more likely than 9, xx, QJxx, and even if the latter situation exists, declarer can simply duck the first one.

[lamford]

I was quite surprised to find that a rough SIM made it too close to call. Assuming they have a 5-2 heart fit and declarer QJx(x) of spades, they often have two hearts, two diamonds and four clubs, or one heart, three diamonds and four clubs, and a spade lead can be the ninth. I had 10 beats to 9 on a 24 board sample. Unfortunately, the software cannot combine play and lead and parameters yet. It should do! Jury still out.

[mike777]

2s

[cherdano]

I was quite surprised to find that a rough SIM made it too close to call. Assuming they have a 5-2 heart fit and declarer QJx(x) of spades, they often have two hearts, two diamonds and four clubs, or one heart, three diamonds and four clubs, and a spade lead can be the ninth. I had 10 beats to 9 on a 24 board sample. Unfortunately, the software cannot combine play and lead and parameters yet. It should do! Jury still out.

But assuming declarer has QJx is a big assumption. Maybe he has J9xx. Maybe he has Jxx xx in the majors and thought a confident stopper-showing bid will usually work out alright. Maybe he has Qxxx.

[Winstonm]

10 is bad if the spades are J/Q, xx, J/Q9xx round the table, I'm leading a small one, think this more likely than 9, xx, QJxx, and even if the latter situation exists, declarer can simply duck the first one.

 

I'm leading the 10 because it is a poll question and the 10 is the hero lead. :D