Lead problem

[helene_t]

Matchpoints, w/w.

 

9xx-T9x-AJ9xxx-x

 

(1♣)-2♦-(2♠)-pass

(2NT)*-pass-(3NT**)-a.p.

 

*agonizing a bit

**in tempo

 

Opps play weak nt, 4-card majors. It is not clear which suit they would open with [2434] 15-16. They are reasonably competent but somewhat primitive bidders.

 

For those not familar with weak nt at club level: That the 2NT rebid is something like x-AJxx-KQx-Qxxxx is a black spot for many pairs. Not necesarrily this pair but possibly. Some assume that it is 15-16 so the agonizing could mean that he considered the minimum 1(43)5 hand a rebid problem. It could, of course, also mean all kind of other things. 2♠ was almost certainly forcing, btw. (Technically, a nonforcing 2♠ bid would be alertable although few pairs know that).

 

Partner could have doubled the final contract if she believed that it goes down on a spade lead but other than that we don't have any relevant agreements.

[Vampyr]

 

For those not familar with weak nt at club level: That the 2NT rebid is something like x-AJxx-KQx-Qxxxx is a black spot for many pairs. Not necesarrily this pair but possibly.

 

I think we need to find out.

[helene_t]

I think we need to find out.

Yes that would be nice. Except if we think that a heart lead is at least as good as the spade lead regardless of the answer.

 

My thought was that if declarer actually has a balanced 15-16 then the heart lead is much better, and even if not then the heart lead is still reasonable. Declarer could still have 2245 (few people open 1NT with that shape at our club), or dummy could have very strong spades which could be established even if 5-1. Dummy could have six spades, maybe. If I give declarer a finesse against partner's ♥Q he would probably have taken it anyway, given my preempt.

 

But more importantly, I prefer not to ask that kind of questions. Opps are not very likely to have a partnership specific agreement about it.

[Vampyr]

But more importantly, I prefer not to ask that kind of questions. Opps are not very likely to have a partnership specific agreement about it.

 

In my experience, they do.

[helene_t]

In my experience, they do.

Yeah, maybe you are right. I suppose it can do no harm to ask.

 

Btw: I see that most people would lead a diamond. I suppose that means a small diamond? Or is anyone leading the Jack or the Ace?

[Kaitlyn S]

Yeah, maybe you are right. I suppose it can do no harm to ask.

 

Btw: I see that most people would lead a diamond. I suppose that means a small diamond? Or is anyone leading the Jack or the Ace?

I'm leading small.