Epic misunderstanding

[wank]

lol @ people who think it's normal for double of 3H to be for penalties because of xyz absurd logic.

[Kaitlyn S]

Your partner has an IMP average of +0.01, yours is -0.05, East is -0.29 and West -0.55, all in general (not high-level) play, so it is clear that the standard at the table was low-mid intermediate regardless of how you all choose to self-rate.

I've made this argument before but it does apply here.

 

I'm not sure how to see the other players' averages either but my average (the last 50 hands, I don't know how to look at anything else) ia +1.1. Does this mean I'm a decent player? Of course not. If I got the +1.1 with my favorite partner with many agreements in the Relaxed Room choosing to play against beginners, I could be totally wretched. The last time people made this argument, I tried an experiment to see how high I could run my average. I ignored the tougher competitive team matches (where my opponents were frequently regular partners and I don't have any regular partners here) and just played in the Main or Relaxed Bridge Club in situations that didn't look suicidal, and ran my 50-board average to about +3.6. I wasn't any better player but my IMP average was pretty high. After playing 50 hands this way, I decided to find an enjoyable game where I found a reasonable partner who found two of his reasonable playing friends to play against. It was great fun but playing against a seasoned pair put us at a disadvantage and I appeared to be in Zelendakh's "low intermediate" category with my IMP rating.

 

So I maintain that you can tell little about a player's skill by looking at his IMP average on the last 50 hands (even if you could see his average for all his hands, I'm not sure you can tell.) Several factors apply here:

 

Does the player have a regular partner with agreements?

Does the player play with a weak regular partner? (some spouse or significant other partners can really drag your average down)

Does the player play in the competitive team games, and further, does he look for the strong matches?

Does the player look to play against tough opponents or against beginners?

 

There are many others. I know how well (or how poorly) I play and refuse to give myself the label "Expert" as I feel it should apply to people that others would be willing to pay to play with. I know that I will never approach the level of play of many of the posters here such as Phil or Timo so probably I won't ever be a self-labelled expert. However, I don't think you can get a good clue about my ability from my IMP average.

[MrAce]

Kaitlyn which username do you use in BBO?

 

I agree that the BBO average is not a decent hint, why not?

 

For example most of my MP average comes from GIB MP events where I hold the best hand, which gives me more control over the outcome than random deals that puts you in positions where the outcome depends on opponents and their bidding success. On the other hand one has less success rate in defense vs GIB than real players and than defending with human partner. You are basically defending without any signal in GIB games.

 

Also, if your average is mostly decided by GIB events, looking at Tournament averages will fool you, because people tend to withdraw in the middle of the event when they are going very bad, and those results won show in your Tournament hands average.

[nullve]

* 2♥: normal, but 3♥ was definitely an alternative in 1st seat at this vulnerability

* 2♠: not my choice (I'd pass), but normal

* P(W): obvious

* P(N): obvious

* 3♥: inconsistent with a standard Weak Two style. Maybe East had lots of extra shape and suit quality the way they play, but why didn't he double or bid 2N (suggesting 6-4?) or 3♣ instead?

* X(S): There are three playable styles here: takeout, penalty and either-or. But maybe South had reason to believe North would be on the same page.

* XX: SOS, West's best try

* 4♦: looks like North either thought West's redouble was for business or that partner's double was for takeout

* P(E): obvious

* P(S): just believing partner

* X(W): not too greedy IMO

* P(N): consistent with 4♦

* P(E): obvious

* XX(S): at MPs, why not? At IMPs, maybe damage control (Pass) is called for, but I've seen opps get cold feet under comparable circumstances. :)

* P(W): obvious

* P(N): consistent with previous pass

* P(E): obvious

 

It's hard to say what the worst call was without knowing more about NS's doubling agreements or what they should expect to be standard within their group. 3♥ by East is dubious at best, though.

[Kaitlyn S]

Kaitlyn which username do you use in BBO?

I use Kaitlyn S. I played a lot in the summer but I'm busy now and rarely play but I'll be back again next summer.

 

I agree that the BBO average is not a decent hint, why not?

 

For example most of my MP average comes from GIB MP events where I hold the best hand, which gives me more control over the outcome than random deals that puts you in positions where the outcome depends on opponents and their bidding success. On the other hand one has less success rate in defense vs GIB than real players and than defending with human partner. You are basically defending without any signal in GIB games.

 

Also, if your average is mostly decided by GIB events, looking at Tournament averages will fool you, because people tend to withdraw in the middle of the event when they are going very bad, and those results won show in your Tournament hands average.

 

I had not even considered the GIB aspect of it.

[gszes]

I do not have the energy to bash everything that was done poorly. The weak 2h bid and the pass of (2s by w read mr ace commentary)and n were about the only bids I liked. But the one bid that really start to gnaw at me is the x by south of the ridiculous 3h bid). What is south thinking about? Surely they are not xing merely to scrape out an extra 50 penalty (assuming the opps do not make) so they must be imagining 6 defensive tricks from somewhere but where? The bidding almost assuredly means west will have most of the remaining hcp and they were just stumped (or savvy enough to pass) over how to proceed over 2s. I am unconvinced 3h x should be considered universally a penalty x (I would play it as tox) but even if that is the case what should north do with their gross collection of nonsense? I mean just how much defense can a mere 2s bid have that will single handedly defeat 3h? I see these kinds of penalty x all the time where one player gets ticked off about how the bidding has gone and just x because they don't like how it went. Far too many of these poor x turn normal hands into multiple imp losses especially when the x puts a damper on what p would do w/o the poor x.

[rmnka447]

3 ♥ is a bad bid, but like gszes the double of 3 ♥ is the absolute worst call IMO.

 

With 10+ ♥ between South and East, can South reasonably expect North to sit for a penalty double? If not, what suit is North likely to bid? Diamonds, of course, South's void. OTOH, a pass of 3 ♥ leaves the opponents in not a particularly good place.

 

How would competent defense go against 3 ♥? South starts with ♣ AK followed by ♣ 3 which North wins with the ♣ Q. North returns ♦ 3 which South ruffs low. South returns the ♣ 6 which North ruffs, North returns another ♦ which South ruffs low and there's still two top ♥ to collect totaling 8 tricks for +200 versus nothing.

[Zelandakh]

How do you view that?

It is just the average over the last month taken from the BBO Myhands database. Login using your BBO ID, enter the name of the relevant user and adjust the time period. The maximum output is one month at a time although the records go back around 2 months, so you can potentially construct a better average. It is also a good idea to run your eye over the output to see if they are done with a regular partner or you recognise any of the other names - that can sometimes suggest that the average is untrustworthy - but it is still, in my experience, a considerably better indicator than the self-ratings provided the #hands is more than 100.