ATB missing slam

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&w=saqj5hakq6daj83c4&e=s62ht742dk72cakj5&d=w&v=0&b=14&a=1dp1hp4cp4hppp]266|200[/hv]

[MrAce]

West or system.

East did just fine.

[Phil]

Pretty tough playing anything standard-ish.

 

Playing Meckwell:

 

1c 1h (8-11 art) 2S (4 × 1) 2N (ask) 3S 4441) 3N (?) 4C (?) 5H (?) 6H. Im guessing at last 4 calls but it seems reasonable.

 

Playing my pet methods:

 

1D (unbal and forcing 1R) 1H (4÷, 0+ hcp) 2N (strong raise) 3C (inquiry) 3S (low short and GF) 4C 4D (Q + LTTC). East might cue 5D or signoff - unclear.

[Cyberyeti]

West or system.

East did just fine.

 

Disagree, E bid how he would bid xx, Jxxx, xxx, KQxx, his hand is much better than that, I think he owes partner 4♦ but I agree system is an issue, Ax, AKxx, AQxxxx, x for example is a decent slam and a possible 4♣ bid.

 

We have a gadget here which would help, but I'm not sure if you can do better than 4♣ in standard methods.

[wanoff]

If you're in this, you'll be in a lot of worse ones as well.

Besides, it looks pretty ropey if the spade finesse fails.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&w=saqj5hakq6daj83c4&e=s62ht742dk72cakj5&d=w&v=0&b=14&a=1dp1hp4cp4hppp]266|200| Fluffy's ATB

 

Quite a good slam but hard to bid.

 

With sight of both hands, you might judge that West has a bit to spare and East is worth 4♦

[/hv]

[wank]

east has downgraded his clubs too much. opposite ax x in the blacks (more likely p's 2461 than his actual shape), AK is the nut holding. i'd be giving it 2 moves on the east hand, not just 1. king of diamonds is normally a more useful card than it is here.

 

i understand east's worried about his hearts (partner driving slam with aqxx for example), but you there are plenty of hands where slam's good with a known trump loser. if you were really clever you might be able to get to 6nt opposite something like AK AKxx AJxxxx x.

[SteveMoe]

With Nigel.

East owes 4♦ over 4♣, the ♣AKJx not withstanding. 1♥ could be on a few as xxx Qxxx xx Q/Kxxx. Holding 4 Controls, we owe partner a control bid under game. The "free" 4♦ unlocks the potential of partner's hand. Moral - always make the bid partner wants to hear.

 

Would add that AKxx is not a horrible holding opposite a splinter - It is better than KQ/KJ/QJ - x(x). You offer partner a discard (or 2) that might mean making slam.

[neilkaz]

With Nigel.

East owes 4♦ over 4♣, the ♣AKJx not withstanding. 1♥ could be on a few as xxx Qxxx xx Q/Kxxx. Holding 4 Controls, we owe partner a control bid under game. The "free" 4♦ unlocks the potential of partner's hand. Moral - always make the bid partner wants to hear.

 

Would add that AKxx is not a horrible holding opposite a splinter - It is better than KQ/KJ/QJ - x(x). You offer partner a discard (or 2) that might mean making slam.

Agreed that east should bid 4♦

[MrAce]

Lord help these people!They seem to not understand W would have splintered with a K less than what he has.

Without ♥K 5 level would not be safe if E made a move.

[gnasher]

Lord help these people!They seem to not understand W would have splintered with a K less than what he has.

Without ♥K 5 level would not be safe if E made a move.

But that still makes it OK to bid 4♦, doesn't it? West wouldn't go beyond game with AQJx AQxx AJxx x

[MrAce]

But that still makes it OK to bid 4♦, doesn't it? West wouldn't go beyond game with AQJx AQxx AJxx x

 

 

The hand you gave would not, but

 

AKxx

Axxx

AQJxx

Void

 

This hand definitely will. They may even end up in slam ♥ let alone 5 level if they try to avoid keycards due to void or if they respond the void to keycard asking, assuming that pd liked the splinter suit.

 

I can actually make it more dramatic by changing opener's hand.

 

AKQx

Qxxx

AQJxx

Void.

 

AKQx

AKxx

Qxxxx

Void

 

If 4♦ means "I have weak trumps" then I am with you. But I strongly doubt it. It is either last train or control cuebid depending on your agreement. People in this thread are understating the possibility of pd having void ♣. And when/if that is the case, his overall strength may be a stretch by partner, plus our hand worth much less than it is vs a singleton.

[Fluffy]

Would add that AKxx is not a horrible holding opposite a splinter - It is better than KQ/KJ/QJ - x(x). You offer partner a discard (or 2) that might mean making slam.

 

 

Certainly better, but on this hand you are often discarding the third spade, it is much better when partner has 5+ trumps and you have 2 suits to pick the discard.

[gnasher]

The hand you gave would not, but

 

AKxx

Axxx

AQJxx

Void

 

This hand definitely will. They may even end up in slam ♥ let alone 5 level if they try to avoid keycards due to void or if they respond the void to keycard asking, assuming that pd liked the splinter suit.

What's wrong with being in slam, as long as it's the right slam? I'd like to have an auction like

1♦-1♥

4♣-4♦

4♠-5NT

6♦

 

I can actually make it more dramatic by changing opener's hand.

 

AKQx

Qxxx

AQJxx

Void.

 

If 4♦ means "I have weak trumps" then I am with you. But I strongly doubt it. It is either last train or control cuebid depending on your agreement. People in this thread are understating the possibility of pd having void ♣. And when/if that is the case, his overall strength may be a stretch by partner, plus our hand worth much less than it is vs a singleton.

 

I assumed that 4♦ showed the ace or king of diamonds, as Fluffy didn't say we were playing anything else.

 

I'm not sure that opener should go past game with this. The weak trumps are a danger signal, and there are other hands where the five-level isn't safe but responder has a clearcut 4♦ bid, eg xx Kxxx Kxx Axxx.

 

I agree that the possibility of opener's holding a void is a problem, but I don't think the answer is for responder to hold back from cue-bidding because of that. On frequency grounds, I think it's better for opener with a void to take account of the likelihood that partner is treating the ace as a useful card.

 

A better solution is to play a better system, so that opener can distinguish between a singleton and a void below game.

Edited January 2, 2017 by gnasher

[Phil]

Heres an easy fix

 

1D 1H and 1H 1S are the only starts where we cant jump reverse to break out splinter ranges, ie 1C 1H 3D is a 3 or 5 level splinter and 4D is a 4 level splinter.

 

1H 3S (1S 3N) is commonly played as an unknown splinter.

 

So use 1D 1H 3S as multi way.

 

3N asks then

 

4C is club shortness (4D expresses interest opp a really big hand)

 

4D is spade shortness and big hand.

 

4H is a 4 level drive with spade shortness.

 

1H 1S 3N could function the same way.

[Fluffy]

I was thinking on including something artifical as well, but I was more interested in diamond length over strength. I see so many differenes betwee 4441 and 5431 (not as many with 6421 and 5431)

[rmnka447]

I think West is far too strong to splinter 4 ♣. I regularly see hands where people splinter with a 16-17 HC count as opener often with some flaws. This hand has a 21 count with good suit textures and controls in all the suits. It's too much to expect responder to help evaluate slam prospects with a rebid that can be that wide.

 

I think a jump shift 2 ♠ rebid that is virtually game forcing, if available, would be better. First, it should show good values in these 2 suits to begin. It also tends to increase the value of ♦ and ♠ honors in responders hand once you set ♥ as trump. It also let's responder give some indication of their strength. Here after a 2 ♠ rebid, responder will make a positive response which lets opener keep slam exploration alive.

 

With the actual 4 ♣ splinter made, I think responder should bid 4 ♦ as the hand still has extras even though concentrated in opener's short suit. 4 ♥ could be bid on as little as ♠ xx ♥ Jxxx ♦ xxx ♣ Axxx. Responder's hand is considerably better than that.

[Cyberyeti]

I was thinking on including something artifical as well, but I was more interested in diamond length over strength. I see so many differenes betwee 4441 and 5431 (not as many with 6421 and 5431)

 

We actually play 1x-1y-3N as big 4441 with support, so all the other sequences show at least 5x. We have another way of bidding the sort of hand most people hold for this sequence.

[MrAce]

[/size]

 

A better solution is to play a better system, so that opener can distinguish between a singleton and a void below game.

 

On that alone we agree, and that is what I mentioned in my first reply.

 

On the hand

 

AKQx

Qxxx

AQJxx

Void

 

I definitely think opener will go over 4♥ level. But I will poll this one too for you. Come on. You are almost cold for slam, let alone 5 level, vs

 

xxx

KJxx

Kxx

xxx

 

Some may even give a better hand than this for 4♦. But in this topic people seem to prefer doing it with 4 small trumps and AKJ in the splinter suit. Ugh...

[cherdano]

Timo, singletons are more likely than voids. East has a very decent hand opposite a singleton. Even opposite a void it could be useful - say opener is 3460 with ♠Axx.

 

If all your example hands are specifically 4450, maybe you should think more whether the problems hands for bidding 4♦ are all that likely.

 

(In my view, 4♦ is clear.)

[Jinksy]

From a quick glance at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_bridge_probabilities, and discounting West hands with 5 hearts as too unlikely (even a priori, let alone after silent opps), the initial chance of opener being dealt a void is about 0.03, whereas the chance of him having a singleton is about 0.21, ie about seven times more likely.

[MrAce]

For Andy.

 

Here is the poll I set for the hand that you think opener would not move over 4♦

 

http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/bidding-problem-2-x5j3bs1q1f/

 

Here is the poll where we are responder.

 

http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/bidding-problem-2-1wk6pwzsin/

 

Of course numbers of votes matters, but I suggest to look at the actual voters as well. But so far, if these people are bidding 4♥ with E hand, perhaps bidding 4 ♦ is neither as clear nor correct as Arend says, when we do not see the West hand.

[msjennifer]

Personally,I would like to know if opener will bid 4C if missing the SJ.

The way we play,we like to go slow on strong hands to find out what responder holds as his 1H bid may be on 5/6 points which may or may not be useful to the opener for bidding a slam in Heart.Opener does never use a splinter in our system,although many will dissent this method.

We play Super Precision and the bidding for this particular hand went as follows,

1C (16plus any)--1NT ( no 5 or more card suit,no singleton,balanced 8 to 13 HCP,)

 

 

2C(please clarify)-3C (clubs and another four carder and 11 to 13 HCP)

3D (Relay) -3H ( Heart suit)

4D(Controls ask)--4NT(4 controls)

6Heart -Pass.

The slam is not a bad slam if the trumps are 3/2 .Even if the spade finesse fails,there is a good chance that the DQ will come down when you ruff a diamond in the hand after discarding one on spade Queen. Or if you dare cash the last Trump in dummy then the opponent if holding both the missing Queens will get squeezed.(depending on your choice).

[Fluffy]

We actually play 1x-1y-3N as big 4441 with support, so all the other sequences show at least 5x. We have another way of bidding the sort of hand most people hold for this sequence.

 

 

What is 1x-1y-4x in your system? we use solid suit (AKJxxx or better) but shows up never.

[Cyberyeti]

What is 1x-1y-4x in your system? we use solid suit (AKJxxx or better) but shows up never.

 

We essentially have 2 ways of bidding this, as we play 1x-1y-2N as GF unbal with a semi forced 3♣ relay.

 

One is 4y5x22 big hand, the other is a fit hand where you only care about aces in the short suits, so x/x or x/Kx in the short suits.

 

The big one suiter is handled by 1x-1y-2N-3♣-3x (or 3N if x=♣) thus the direct 3x rebid is limited