Double or overcall?

[Jinksy]

[hv=pc=n&e=saq83hdk4caqj8432&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1s(4%2B)]133|200[/hv]

 

What's your call? Is it close? It was sent to me by a friend, so I'm not sure of scoring - say if MPs vs IMPs matters.

[helene_t]

2♣ is reasonable and probably best, I would consider 3NT but maybe it is too much to expect partner to pull with a hearts leak but not to worry about a diamond leak. Dbl is not reasonable. If Kx had been hearts instead of diamonds I would have preferred dbl.

[Jinksy]

I've added 3N to the poll.

[Thiros]

I suppose I'm a 2♣ bidder what with the upper limit of two-level overcalls ascending into ever thinner air. But my gosh, this really is right on the line. There could easily be a sting in the cards where partner has ♠xx ♥J10xxx ♦Qxxx ♣Kx, the 2♣ bidders play there, and the doublers get to conduct an auction that goes (1♠)-X-2♥-3♣-3♠-3NT.

[akwoo]

I'm doubling, with 3N a close second.

 

It's rather unlikely, but there are hands where 6C makes but 2C would be passed out. You've got 8.5 tricks with KS overwhelmingly likely to be on your right.

[Kaitlyn S]

Kaplan Rubens calls this hand worth 21.40 points without knowing of the spade bid on the right.

[SteveMoe]

2♣, no second thought.

Double deserves partner's jump or insistence on a ♥ contract.

Not worries that I might be understating this hand's values because I will get at least one chance to bid again. This auction isn't dying soon.

[P_Marlowe]

Other.

 

I tend towards 2C, but it is not obvious, ... maybe marginal 2C would be the

choice of the moderator.

My plan is, 2C / 3C ... this should show my hand pretty well, double risks

facing 3S or something like this.

 

3NT is not an option, even after a couple of minutes, we have a spade stopper,

but our clubs are not running, i.e. they have enough time to find the relevant

switches.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Jinksy]

There could easily be a sting in the cards where partner has ♠xx ♥J10xxx ♦Qxxx ♣Kx, the 2♣ bidders play there, and the doublers get to conduct an auction that goes (1♠)-X-2♥-3♣-3♠-3NT.

 

There *could*, but 'easily' is an overbid. This hand is tailor-made for doubling. Give P a club more and he'd raise 2C. Give him a H less (or make the J♥ a pip), and the opps might be able to run 5 hearts against 3N - or find a profitable H sacrifice over it. Give him a spade fewer and/or a diamond more, and the opps are much more likely to compete over 2♣.

 

When the hand you're constructing is as sensitive to minor tweaks as this before it stops being able to demonstrate your point, it's a sign that it's less probable a set of thirteen cards than you might think. And even on this layout the opps have 18 points and 8 hearts between them so, there's a decent chance either opp will have enough of both to find a double of 2♣.

[Thiros]

Yep..... which is why I'm (probably) bidding 2♣ at the table -- but not in complete unconcern. The chance of getting dropped in 2♣ indeed is not likely, but if it did in fact happen I would feel sick.

 

BTW, the nightmare scenario for double is not heart bids by partner. I can pull heart bids to clubs, up to the five level if necessary. (And if partner removed that to 5♥ then I would not only be playing in my next event with a new partner but demanding that this one cover my entry fee for the current event too.) On the other hand, game in diamonds is a level higher still, so it is the other red suit that is the stinger. If partner's first bid is 5♦, perhaps over a natural 4♥ bid by LHO, we would be in the trap for real, because now a club correction has to be at the six level. If RHO "rescued" us by raising to 5♥ it could actually make the stew hotter. How attractive would our situation be if we passed over RHO's 5♥ and partner doubled?

 

P.S. If my partner were one of the doublers in this poll, I would double. The decision is close enough to bring that into play as a factor.