Psychotronics?

[nullve]

Forget the title. Here's something I thought about a few years ago:

 

Suppose South

 

* is playing a spade contract

* has something like ♥KTx in hand opposite ♥J9xxx in dummy

* has reason to believe that East has the ♥A

* has reason to believe that East doesn't know everything about the remaining heart distribution

* has plenty of entries to dummy

 

How should South play the heart suit for only one loser?

 

Hint 1:

I didn't post this in the N/B forum.

 

Hint 2:

 

What will you normally play from ♥AQx(x..) as East if a heart is led from dummy?

 

Hint 3:

 

Yes, West might have the stiff ♥Q (although he chose not to lead it), but I also have something else in mind.

 

Hint 4:

 

Suppose that when a heart is led from dummy East plays low from ♥Axx and declarer wins with the K. Then what will you do as East when another heart is led from dummy?

 

My solution(?):

 

Lead a heart to the K, for the reasons almost given in hints 2-4. Crazy?

 

[alok c]

If i understand the problem correctly,what East will do with

1)♥AQx

2)♥AXX

Competent East will

1)Duck 1st time

2)Duck both the times if South plays ♥K 1st time.

[Phil]

I think this thread would be more interesting if:

 

1. Dummy had the T

2. There's a looming endplay

3. There are entry considerations.

 

As it is, I think you talked yourself into an inferior line.

[Kaitlyn S]

Hint 1:

I didn't post this in the N/B forum.

Good thin/g too, because most N/B would play the same card in both situations; either the ace if they are into instant gratification, or low if they have learned the value of playing second hand low smoothly.

 

While I don't know alok c, I presume he would also play the same card in both situations based on his post, but in this case because he is "too good to differentiate."

 

So it appears that your analysis works against a certain range of players, and while it might be a wide range, you need to know your opponent to give up a 50% play for a play that is so outrageously against the odds without the psychological element.

 

Now, there is one other psychological element at play here. Was the opening lead some obvious honor lead that appears the waiter would have led it? For if not, against many pairs the holding of H-AQx is unlikely as there are many opening leaders that could hardly resist leading their small doubleton heart when they don't have another obvious lead.

[MrAce]

I think this thread would be more interesting if:

 

1. Dummy had the T

2. There's a looming endplay

3. There are entry considerations.

 

As it is, I think you talked yourself into an inferior line.

 

http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif

[cherdano]

If you are planning to do this, I think you are better off leading the J from dummy. If you lead low, I bet the instinct for most defenders is to play low from AQx, since it is technically the right play when their partner has Tx or T, and since it succeeds in getting rid of the maximal number of dummy entries before declarer can rund the suit.

[nullve]

I agree with all of you. :(

 

It would be better to give dummy the ♥T, as Phil suggested, OR provide an auction (such as 3♠-4♠; P) that gives East reason to fear that declarer has the stiff ♥K.

[Kaitlyn S]

OR provide an auction (such as 3♠-4♠; P) that gives East reason to fear that declarer has the stiff ♥K.

Provide a different auction You have no clue that East has the ♥A; in fact, the fact that West didn't lead a heart would make it more likely that West held the ♥A.

[nullve]

Provide a different auction You have no clue that East has the ♥A; in fact, the fact that West didn't lead a heart would make it more likely that West held the ♥A.

Aargh, yes. So maybe (1♣)-3♠-4♠; P as in

 

[hv=pc=n&s=skqj5432hk92d32c2&w=s876hq3dqjt4c6543&n=sathjt654dak5cq87&e=s9ha87d9876cakjt9&d=e&v=0&b=1&a=1c3sp4sppp]399|300[/hv]

?

[Kaitlyn S]

Aargh, yes. So maybe (1♣)-3♠-4♠; P

?

I think that works in matchpoints where the overtrick is at stake.

 

Of course, West leads the DQ so that East can't have x, Qxx, QJxx, AKJxx.

[Fluffy]

A bit unrelated: I've seen some "Easts" raise with ♥A at trick one on this position at top level, maybe 2 or 3 times, on all of them partner still scored the queen.

 

I trust there are many moves in this game where wasting an entry to play the obvious suit creates a problem for an opponent, but we constantly overlook them.

[WellSpyder]

A bit unrelated: I've seen some "Easts" raise with ♥A at trick one on this position at top level, maybe 2 or 3 times, on all of them partner still scored the queen.

That's a good point, Fluffy. I've never forgotten a hand where I had something like KJx in dummy and led the suit from hand quite early on. Up went the ace in second seat. My attempt to take the "marked" finesse against the Q much later in the play was rather less successful than I expected, and I have learnt to be careful about the assumptions I make....