Percentage problem

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&s=skq9872h7dakt4ck2&n=sj3haq92d5ca87643&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1cp1sp2cp2dp2hp2sp3sp4np5hp6sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

what is the best line on a non trump lead?

[alok c]

One D Ruff & H finesse

[ahydra]

What was the lead? A heart takes away your option to try for 3-2 clubs.

 

I try DA, D ruff, SJ hoping East wins (or W doesn't switch to hearts, which is unlikely). If they duck I cross to CK to draw more. Then try 3-2 clubs using HA as entry to cash, or if they break badly then H finesse.

 

Edit: there could also be some squeeze chances

 

ahydra

[Hanoi5]

I think the question hints at a crossruff.

[Fluffy]

sorry didn't see you could stablish clubs, the lead at the table was a heart. The perfectage question is 10 in 2 rounds vs 10 in 3 rounds and heart king onside.

[ahydra]

Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.

 

At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam. :)

 

ahydra

[alok c]

Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.

 

At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam. :)

 

ahydra

Actually tripleton♠10/doubleton♠10 probability is 60/40 ,so if you ruff 2♦ there is 60% chance that they will take 2 tricks in ♠. ♥finesse is having a 50% chance of loosing.

[WesleyC]

Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.

 

At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam. :)

 

ahydra

 

I agree with your maths and conclusion. Heart finesse and 1 ruff definitely looks like the best option, and I'd take the finesse even at trick one.

 

Trying to ruff 2 diamonds before drawing trumps also risks giving up a ruff/promotion in diamonds on an otherwise favourable layout. For example, if LHO has 3 diamonds and the Tx of spades.

[nige1]

what is the best line on a non trump lead?

I think the question hints at a crossruff.

[hv=pc=n&e=sAT654hKJ8d987CQT&s=skq9872h7dakt4ck2&n=sj3haq92d5ca87643&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1cp1sp2cp2dp2hp2sp3sp4np5hp6sppp]300|300|

 

Agree with Hanoi5. e.g.

 

♥A, ♥ ruff, ♦AK, ♣KA, ♥ ruff, ♦ ruff low, ♥ ruff. ♦ ruff with ♠J, ♣ (over) ruff.

 

The same plan, in a slightly different order, works on any plain suit lead.

 

If the plain-suits behave, then the cross-ruff succeeds when East has 3+ ♠s or ♠T -

- You can handle many bad trump breaks

-- even 5-0 as in the diagram on the left.

[/hv]