Yes or no?

[benlessard]

Here is how i see it.

 

How many losers do we expect for 5H ?

 

a 2S red overcall on a bad day is going to be one cover card.

 

KQxxxx

x

Qxxx

Kx

 

it may be worse than this with a 7th spades.

 

Most of the times its going to be 2 cover cards but it still going to be 3+ a fair amount of times.

 

I think that 5H is 4 losers, 3 losers is not only super rare but we will all force to slam with this. With 5 i would just signoff hoping that if overcall got 4 cover he will make an extra move. Im confident that 90+% of the players will agree that 5H is 4 losers.

 

 

Obviously the 5H bidder should be convinced that the cases where overcaller got 3 cover cards outweight the cases of 1 cover card.

But he should also think about cases where overcaller got 2 covers but something bad happen like a S ruff or a Qxx in H.

The most important one he should think about cases where his partner is going to think that hes got 3 cover but got only 2.

 

2920,1930,2821, etc these are all cases where the K of !D is going to be a cover. So its normal that the !DK will be misevaluated.

There is also cases where hes got only 8H but a minor ace with those case the !H Q will be seen as half a cover.

 

Axxxxx

Qx

AQx

xx

 

i would really think my hand got 3 covers and raise to 6H.

 

 

Here I think that the trap is that advancer hand make the QH and the K of !D not being cover cards. So i guess cases where overcaller will get it wrong are high enough to make 5H a slight underdog proposition.

[benlessard]

I agree wiht Fluffy, I think 6H is normal with overcaller hand.

 

2920,1930,0841(!DA) etc are all cases where we overcaller got 3 covers.