MP sacrifice?

[Stephen Tu]

Matchpoints.

question 1:

[hv=pc=n&n=skh75432dt98764c8&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1s2n(minors)4s5d5spp?]133|200[/hv]

 

question 2:

[hv=pc=n&n=skh75432dt98764c8&d=e&v=e&b=10&a=1s2n(minors)4s5d5spp?]133|200[/hv]

 

question 3: alternate auctions

[hv=pc=n&n=skh75432dt98764c8&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1s2n(minors)3s5d5spp?]133|200[/hv]

[hv=pc=n&n=skh75432dt98764c8&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1s2n(minors)3d(lr+ spade raise)5d5spp?]133|200[/hv]

[Jinksy]

I don't think I'd bid on on any of them. We need several things to be true for it to score well:

 

1) 5♠ has to be making

(or 1.1, 6♦ has to be, but that seems so remote as to be ignorable)

2) 6♦ has to be at most 2/3 down

3) They have to not be bidding and making 6♠ when we push them

and

4) Few people in the room can be buying it in 5♦(x) - if they are, we're already marked for a bottom

 

1 seems reasonably likely, but hard to be tremendously confident in, presuming our 2NT can be a wide range of strengths.

2 again seems pretty likely, but far from certain

3 is probably the factor I'm most scared of. If they need trumps to behave, they will be. This is probably a bigger factor when we're NV, as either opp looking at xx in Ds might not have placed their P with definite shortage, but after a 6/5 bid they'll surely be able to (also, if they're reasonably confident they're not beating it by 4 tricks and that they were making 5♠, they might be forced into bidding it just to give themselves a chance to avoid a bottom)

4 is really hard to judge the odds of, and probably requires a bit of opp-reading - eg how long did E think before bidding 5♠? But I'm rarely going to be confident about this either way

[SteveMoe]

They've made the last guess. Don't undo that by stealing the last guess away from them. Pass.

[Cyberyeti]

What are my agreements on the strength of the UNT ? Depending on the answer to that I might have bid 6 last time (I'm not going to do it now).

[Finch]

I would have bid 6D the first time round. Or possibly 5C to tempt partner to lead the ace of clubs against 6S.

[jogs]

They've made the last guess. Don't undo that by stealing the last guess away from them. Pass.

 

That pretty much covers it.

 

 

I would have bid 6D the first time round. Or possibly 5C to tempt partner to lead the ace of clubs against 6S.

 

I would only be willing to bid 6♦ non-vul vs vul.