Hammer time #20

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&s=sjt752ha2dk8cj972&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=p1s(11-15)p1np3hp3spp]133|200[/hv]

[Jinksy]

I want to X, but scared about the lead. It's surely a spade, but guessing wrong about high/low could easily carve the suit. Can W have 3 spades? If not, I guess I X and lead the J.

[wank]

yeah i think this one is a much better double than the others i've seen so far.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=sjt752ha2dk8cj972&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=p1s(11-15)p1np3hp3spp]133|200[/hv]

I rank

1. Pass
2. Double

[Winstonm]

I think I will pass. A spade lead can easily blow a trick, and it won't do much good to ruff hearts in front of dummy. I am concerned about gathering the minor tricks we have coming and don't know which minor to lead.

 

I would pass and lead the heart Ace. I don't think I would have the courage to make this lead against a doubled contract.

[MrAce]

I would Pass.

 

I don't think we can make such random doubles in a serious event where the opponents are supposed to be very good players and know what they do. Yes we may hit the jackpot with dbl or make them hit the jackpot when they make. But in general it turns out that they go doubled down 1 instead of going down 2 undoubled. Sometimes they bid 3 NT and LHO shows up with AQJxxx ♦ suit etc..pd leading spades.

[Phil]

Pass in spite of the limited opening. We really only have one extra trump trick.

[gszes]

I go with x here since we seem to have a decent chance to set this even if opener is AKQxxx KQJxx x x and they most likely would opt to open that 1c. Opening lead I would choose a small club since there is a chance we can gain control of the hand and possibly giving up a spade trick seems wrong. P should have around 9 hcp and we have 3 maybe 4 tricks in the majors and a side K. Once in a blue moon they will make this but it seems far more reasonable to take the bonus money and run with it.

[WesleyC]

I would double (and prefer a club lead). Echoing gszes sentiments, many Strong club players tend to upgrade nice looking 14/15s so declarer is more likely to be in the 12-14 range (with decent shape).

 

The most important factors for me on this hand are that a double is unlikely to help declarer in the play and I've also got a reasonable hand for defending other contracts (4C/4D etc).

 

Although there is some small chance that 3S makes, much more often we'll pick up 200 or 500 on a partscore board so I think the expected value of a double is positive.

[Fluffy]

I would double (and prefer a club lead). Echoing gszes sentiments, many Strong club players tend to upgrade nice looking 14/15s so declarer is more likely to be in the 12-14 range (with decent shape).

I play strong club myself, but only 1 more pair plays it regularly in my country, so all I know is from self experience.

 

I would never upgrade a 2-suiter to 1♣, in fact I am thinking about allowing the 15-17 range to be open 1M to rebid 3x. with 5-5. The reason is that 2-suited hands are the most vulnerable to opponent's preempts.

 

I couldn't contrast this theory much, so I am eager to hear other's opinions on this matter.

 

 

[Fluffy]

http://www.eurobridge.org/repository/competitions/16budapest/microsite/Asp/BoardAcross.asp?qboard=013.35..1210

 

 

Double was clearly the winner with 6 obvious defensive tricks, the other table was in 2♠ -100 so won 3 instead of 9

 

[Phil]

Might have doubled with partners but I was royally burned a few years with the,same strength and pattern in the same sequence when I xd so hopefully learned.

[mike777]

fwiw I will try double and lead a club. Agree that sometimes they make or the x backfires but still...