Extra chance?

[helene_t]

[hv=pc=n&w=saj42hj8daqcqj974&e=s875hk652dt4cak65&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=1np2cp2sp3nppp]266|200|d5 lead (4th best), S plays the jack[/hv]

 

Matchpoints, field varies from eternal beginner to advanced, most play some sort of English Acol. These opps are about average.

 

I didn't think too much about it - just led a small heart to the king. When it lost I was one down for 29% of the matchpoints.

 

Afterwards I thought about if there was another option. Starting with a small spade from dummy. If South splits, I can repeat the spade finesse for the 9th trick. If she doesn't split, I can always be back to the heart suit.

 

It would give me another 11.5% chance on top of the 50% chance that the ♥A is onside. But maybe it is not such a good idea:

- If S has a sec ♠ honour and I play her for splitting, I will be down even with ♥A onside.

- If S hasn't got ♠KQ (or decides not to split but I play her for splitting), I could be two or maybe three down instead of one.

- There is a small chance that opps will do something silly and let me make the contract even if ♥A is with South. Not a big chance but a bit more than zero percent.

- If S had ♠KQTxx plus ♥A she might have bid over my partner's Stayman.

 

It is probably crucial here how many MPs +400, -50, -100 and -150 will score. Probably nobody will open 1NT so the auction could easily become contested at other tables, and then all kind of things could happen. Or somebody might chose to open 1♣ and rebid 1NT, thereby not inhibiting a spade lead.

 

What do you think? Would it have been obvious to take the extra chance with the spades if it had been IMPs?

[1eyedjack]

They are going to clear the diamonds at first opportunity, and then have 3 Diamonds to cash.

 

So if the Heart Ace is onside you feel a bit sick if you play on Spades, a 25% shot that the KQ is with South, only to find that the Heart Ace is onside (50%) but they have taken 5 tricks by the time you get to enjoy the Heart King.

 

Against weak opponents it may be right just to cash 5 Clubs before broaching anything else. They may feel pressurised enough to let go a diamond or two.

[MrAce]

Against weak opponents it may be right just to cash 5 Clubs before broaching anything else. They may feel pressurised enough to let go a diamond or two.

It is right to cash ♣s against any level of opponents. Because;

 

A-It does not hurt

 

B-Everyone can make mistakes unless you never give them a chance to.

[1eyedjack]

Sometimes it is right to sneak a trick in a side suit before running your tricks, because the position is more obscure early in the play. By the time that you have run your winners the defence, if there is one, is normally an open book.

[helene_t]

So if the Heart Ace is onside you feel a bit sick if you play on Spades, a 25% shot that the KQ is with South, only to find that the Heart Ace is onside (50%) but they have taken 5 tricks by the time you get to enjoy the Heart King.

But it was not my plan to play a small spade to the jack. I would play a small from the table and then if S plays small I would just take ♠A and I would still have time to set up the ♥K.

[robert2734]

Playing a spade to the ace, you can go down extra tricks in a normal contract.

[ggwhiz]

Running the clubs and then if need be playing a heart to the king is far superior in an uneven field. You might even catch them both with a Qxx in a major in which case they will be in trouble.

[gszes]

The contract looks perfectly reasonable and normal. That means not taking undue risk when normal play will normally result in at worst avg - or so. Having said that there seems to be virtually zero risk in leading up to the AJ of spades in the hope south has the KQ of spades and splits them (though this will normally only happen if they hold KQT). The important point is to make sure you rise with the spade ace even if no K/Q appears from south. The chances of rising with the ace costing you the contract (or even extra undertricks) borders on nil so it is a chance worth taking. After rising with the spade ace run the clubs you never know what effect on discards showing the spade ace will cause.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&n=sQ963hQ93dk9853c2&w=saj42hj8daqcqj974&e=s875hk652dt4cak65&d=w&v=0&b=8&a=1np2cp2sp3nppp]300|300|

This typical layout illustrates 1eyedjack's and MrAce's point.

If declarer runs ♣s, North must keep 3 ♠s and 2 ♥s, so he has to throw ♦s. Not all defenders will find that kind of defence.

And, as Helene_t suggests, in practice, declarer can slightly increase his chances by cashing ♠A.[/hv]

[rhm]

Sometimes it is right to sneak a trick in a side suit before running your tricks, because the position is more obscure early in the play. By the time that you have run your winners the defence, if there is one, is normally an open book.

Very good point maybe on the next deal

 

Rainer Herrmann

[1eyedjack]

Very good point maybe on the next deal

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

Indeed as I said above it did not apply on this deal.