Brexit poll -- "Wisdom of the crowd" theory

[shyams]

This may be pseudo-science but I thought the Brexit scenario offers an opportunity to test the wisdom of the crowd theory. Dear reader, you get a choice to click on one option. It does not matter how little or lot you know about the topic of Brexit; what matters is simply which option of the above best represents your personal view of the likelihood of a Brexit.

 

Please note, you are not being asked on what you would prefer (if you were eligible to vote). Please choose your option based on what you believe (or think, or estimate, or have researched) is the likelihood of a Brexit.

 

In the unlikely event that we get a 1000+ responses, I propose to estimate the "wisdom of the crowd" % as follows:

(Votes for #1)x0.95 + (V #2)x0.75 + (V #3)x0.60 + (V #4)x0.50 + (V #5)x0.40 + (V #6)x0.25 + (V #7)x0.05 divided by (Total Votes)

 

A sufficiently large sample can then be compared to %s indicated in (a) UK-based opinion polls, (b) Analyst research (Wealth management, Investment Banking etc), and © betting odds...

 

Comments and views welcome.

[gwnn]

I voted (not going to say what) but I know one thing for sure: we will not get 1000 responses.

[gszes]

IF you add a choice that reads like NO SANE PERSON could possibly care less about my opinion on this matter we might reach 1000

[shyams]

I voted (not going to say what) but I know one thing for sure: we will not get 1000 responses.

Perhaps the Yellows or Admins can somehow get this survey up on BBO instead of BBF. If that happens, we may get many thousands.

 

As is obvious, I don't want to know who voted (i.e. anonymity works) -- I only want many many votes.

 

Diana, is this feasible via BBO?

[gordontd]

I think there's a problem with the way this is phrased in that the specific questions are asked in the negative of the general question. I initially answered incorrectly because of that.

[gwnn]

Perhaps the Yellows or Admins can somehow get this survey up on BBO instead of BBF. If that happens, we may get many thousands.

 

As is obvious, I don't want to know who voted (i.e. anonymity works) -- I only want many many votes.

 

Diana, is this feasible via BBO?

I don't think BBO was meant to be a survey site. Soon we'd have people asking help with their Bachelor's theses.

[Vampyr]

I think there's a problem with the way this is phrased in that the specific questions are asked in the negative of the general question. I initially answered incorrectly because of that.

 

LOL so did I.

[fromageGB]

I think the majority of the real voters are going to give the wrong answer, too.

[paulg]

It seems like the wisdom of the crowd is that 17 of 1000 might vote. This could be accurate.

[shyams]

It seems like the wisdom of the crowd is that 17 of 1000 might vote. This could be accurate.

:)

 

 

By the way, Paul, the expected voting pattern in Scotland is incredibly skewed. I believe currently 2/3rd of Scottish residents want to vote to "Stay in the EU", which (for the SNP leadership) may be too high.

 

The ideal scenario for SNP is for Scotland to vote "Stay in the EU" by a small yet respectable margin (say 54-46) and hope England votes to "Leave the EU". This will almost certainly trigger a new independence referendum, which otherwise looks like a distant possibility.

 

... convoluted perhaps, but I thought the above idea has sound political merit to it.

[Vampyr]

I should rely on the markets rather than polls. Remain is a heavy favourite.

[shyams]

I should rely on the markets rather than polls. Remain is a heavy favourite.

 

IMO, the markets are very poor at pricing politics. They got the last UK elections completely wrong, they mispriced Donald Trump (who was 8:1 odds for President 5 weeks ago), and they did not expect Front National to do so well in the first round of last French elections.

 

While I agree that Remain is the likely outcome, I disagree with the implied probability indicated by current market odds (which indicate a 81% chance that the UK will vote Remain).