Don't open 4-4-4-1 hands with 12 or 13 points

[1eyedjack]

Playing a weak 1N system I have no objections in principle to opening the hand 1N.

 

The main problem being not, in my view, any theoretical weakness in the method, but rather the licensing restrictions likely to be in place. And it would irritate the hell out of the opponents. Come to think of it, maybe that is a plus point.

[Tramticket]

I am not convinced this holds true.

 

If you look at

 

http://bridge.thomasoandrews.com/valuations/original.html#patterns

 

Under suit contracts (pattern has not much influence in notrump contracts):

 

You get for 4441 distribution: Offense 8.61 tricks and for Defense 4.85 tricks. If we look at the ration we get 1.78

The respective numbers for 5431 would be 8.68 and 4.70 or a ratio of 1.84, a difference of 0.06, hardly earth shattering.

Balanced hands have a worse ratio.

 

A general observation I find interesting:

 

The Offense / Defense ratio of distribution tends to increase with suit length.

Shortages tend to increase your trick potential in both defense and offense and therefor have not that much impact on the ratio.

 

So you can claim the Offense / Defense ratio is no better for 4441 than for 5332, but all else being equal you will on average make more tricks in offense and defense with 4441.

So it makes no sense in my mind to say I will open a 12 point hand holding 5332 but will pass such a hand if holding 4441. You are passing a better hand with more trick potential.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

I have followed your link. There is a lot of data there and I'm not sure that I understand it all. I certainly don't understand what is the source of the data (so I'm taking that on trust).

 

But if I understand correctly the table shows that a 4441 hand will take 8.61 tricks on average playing the contract (in the partnership's best suit?) on a double dummy basis and 4.85 tricks in defence (in the defender's best suit?) on a double dummy basis. I may have mis-interpretted - if so I apologise.

 

The table certainly makes interesting reading and I am interested and surprised that the 4441 shape has a relatively high trick taking potential playing the contract. I guess that the tricky part of this is identifying the correct strain.

 

The data also seems to support my assertion that 4441 hands have a lot of defensive strength. the figure of 4.85 appears to be higher than for any other hand shape (except 10-3-0-0 shape but I suspect rogue data there!!). So I do think there is some evidence to support the suggestion that there is less rush to dive into the auction on this shape.

 

If we perform a simple calculation [Tricks playing the contract] less [tricks in defence] it appears that the value is lowest for the three shapes that we treat as balanced (4333, 4432 & 5332), which is no surprise. That's why we open these hands 1NT (or rebid 1NT - depending upon NT range). 4441 hands sit somewhere in between these balanced hands and the rest of the unbalanced shapes - which is what I would intuitively expect.

 

All very interesting - some of this surprises me and some fits my expectations. Thank you for this link.

 

I'm still not rushing to open 4441 hands. I will open nearly all 12 counts, but very few 11 counts.

[notproven]

Advice is nice, but where's the proof?

 

I don't know the answer, but is is possible for someone to run 1,000 hands through a computer simulator? Say, 250 hands for each possible singleton. I'd like to know how often you go plus (just don't put any restrictions on responder's hand in first or second seat, but see if there is a difference when partner is a passed hand). Also, does the simulator say that it matters which singleton you have?

[wank]

Always open a 12 count 3-suiter. It is an extremely powerful shape that finds a fit if there is one, and is playable in NT if not.

 

4441 is a very weak shape - no long suit to establish without being balanced which allows you to make no trump contracts on high cards alone.

 

for the first time in my life i agree with something philg posted. pass marginal 4441s. 13 counts of course aren't marginal though.

 

and opening 1D and rebidding 2C is pretty disgusting. you'll play 2D on a 42 fit instead of 2H on a 44 fit. if i opened that shape i'd rebid 1NT, but that has issues too. if i were unfortunate enough to be playing weak and 4 i'd be properly screwed.

 

starting with a pass doesn't preclude you from bidding later. if you get a chance to double 1 or 2 spades later you'll show your hand much better than you could hope to achieve by opening.

[fromageGB]

I'm sure the willingness to open depends very heavily on bidding methods employed. I would hate to open 1♦ and rebid 2♣. However, if you have a rebid that says "I have a 3-suiter but you have hit my shortage" then it is a wonderful hand type to find a fit in any suit. And once you have found your fit, the shortage can make the hand powerful in almost immediate ruffs.

[wank]

I'm sure the willingness to open depends very heavily on bidding methods employed. I would hate to open 1♦ and rebid 2♣. However, if you have a rebid that says "I have a 3-suiter but you have hit my shortage" then it is a wonderful hand type to find a fit in any suit. And once you have found your fit, the shortage can make the hand powerful in almost immediate ruffs.

 

which bid are you thinking of which says that? ok, if you're playing an unbalanced diamond you're obviously in a superior , but still dubious, position, because you can play a 2D or ideally 1NT rebid as showing hearts, so at least you'll not miss your 44 heart fit.

[hrothgar]

FWIW, playing MOSCITO, I require more strength to open a 4441 or 5440 then I do other unbalanced hands.

 

Holding most unbalanced hands, I require 8+ HCP to open

Holding 5440s and 4441s I prefer to have 11+ HCPs

 

In a similar vein, when I am playing assumed fit preempts, I typically try to avoid opening with three suited hand patterns.

 

I'll open 2♦ with a hand like the following

 

♠ KQ83

♥ 87

♦ KJT8

♣ 832

 

but I prefer not to make the same opening with

 

♠ KQ83

♥ 8

♦ KJT8

♣ 8732

 

(In my experience, the 4441s play sufficiently better on defense that its not worth the risk of opening)

[kuhchung]

It's just one example, but I had a 1444 13 count in 3rd seat and just passed it. They had a strong NT, transfer to 2S, I doubled for takeout and we reached a making 3 level partial. I've been itching to pass with the stiff spade 1444 hands and try to get more data points.

[Caitlynne]

Sorry, but I think it is losing strategy to fail to open hands with above average honor values that also include a distributional feature that can deliver notable length tricks or ruffing tricks.

 

You think it best to quietly hide a 13 HCP hand with tremendous ruffing potential when playing in any of 3 suits such as

 

x

AJxx

KQJx

Qxxx

 

but you would gleefully stick your neck out when holding a flat 13 HCP with limited source of tricks potential like

 

xxx

AJx

KQJx

Qxx ?

 

Really?

 

I think a strategy that hopes the opponents conduct an auction that gives you an opportunity to make a relatively safe yet descriptiive bid is a losing one.

 

I don't care whether you are playing SAYC or ACOL or 2/1. I am opening your example hand 1D every day of the year regardless of the vulnerability or position/seat. And, if I am playing a 15 to 17 NT opening and partner responds 1S in an uncontested auction, I will rebid 1NT as ugly and uncomfortable as this may be. In my mind, the benefits of bidding far outweigh the rebid risk.

[1eyedjack]

Shares in popcorn have just jumped.

[diana_eva]

Shares in popcorn have just jumped.

 

Show ends here.

 

----------------------------------------------

 

 

PhilG you had plenty of chances from everyone. Take a long deserved vacation and just read for once. You can try again in 3 months. If you still are not able to stay on topic and quit the fist fighting attitude you are no longer welcome here.

 

Later edit: I've moved replies related to PG and moderator decision here.

 

Edited May 21, 2016 by diana_eva
split topic

[bluechip10]

The title of this topic comes from tip No 7 in Paul Mendelson's excellent book " 100 tips for Better Bridge" He says :-

 

"The problem with hands like these is that as they contain three features,they really need three bids to convey their content.

In systems like Acol,when you can't freely bid two different 4 card suits,a considerable amount of fibbing is then involved.

The result of all this is you frequently end up in 4-3 trump fits(having to ruff in your own hand) and hopeless misfit NT contracts

short on points.

The solution is a simple one DON'T OPEN THE BIDDING WITH THIS DISTRIBUTION WITH ONLY 12 OR 13 POINTS

[hv=pc=n&n=s6haj98dkqj3cj632]133|100[/hv]

 

Let's say you open 1♥and partner responds 1♠(there is no problem if he bids anything else) In Acol you're stuck

If you play strong NT with 5 card majors and open a minor suit and get a 1♠ reply all you can do now is re-bid 1NT

This is a sure way of going down,possibly doubled,whenever partner is weak.

Just pass. If partner bids,you will be back in action. If he bids 1♠ on a minimum opener,you will now stay out

of a dodgy Game you couldn't have avoided had you opened,if he bids anything else you can get excited.

If an opponent opens 1♠,you have an ideal 2nd round double. If they bid anything else then you know that your pass was justified.

In the long run you will find yourself staying out of all these horrid contracts you wish you hadn't been faced with

With 14+ points, if partner bids your singleton you can re-bid NTs without risking so much.

The down side? A few missed part scores. Missing Game is impossible. If partner can't bid,what contract can you possibly miss?"

 

One of the many uses of the opening 2♦ bid is to show a 4-4-4-1 hand and 12 to 16 points. This is called Mini-Roman. Lots of variations. Google it and read up.

[cosmickone]

We play mini Roman 10-12 4-4-4-1 5-4-4

Forcing bid is 2nt

All other bids to play. Must be ready f or a correction

[pigpenz]

we always played it 10-13 hcp, mini roman

[johnu]

One of the many uses of the opening 2♦ bid is to show a 4-4-4-1 hand and 12 to 16 points. This is called Mini-Roman. Lots of variations. Google it and read up.

 

I've played a version of this for many years in my Blue Team Club system, and while it does show your distribution, potential users need to know that responder has a number of problem hands where you might get to a bad contract.

 

1) Responder has a minimum 5=2=3=3 and opener 1=4=4=4

Responder will bid 2♠ and you might end up in 2NT or 3 of a minor with a 4-3 fit

 

2) Responder has a minimum 5=3=3=2 and opener is 4=4-1-4

Responder might/could bid 2♥ so you can play in a 4-3 fit at the 2 level. If opener has a singleton spade, bidding 2♠ will be the same as in example 1) If opener also has 4 spades, you miss a 5-4 spade fit (maybe a good game) to play a 4-3 heart partscore.

 

3) Responder has a minimum 2=2=3=6 and opener is 4=4=4=1.

Responder will probably bid 3♣ and opener will probably pass and you play a 6-1 fit

 

4) Responder has a minimum 2=2=6=3 and opener is 4=4=1=4

Responder will probably pass and you'll play in a 6-1 fit.

 

That's not to say that natural bidding will always get to an optimal contract, but natural bidding does start a level lower.

[Fluffy]

Always open a 12 count 3-suiter. It is an extremely powerful shape.....

 

It is not, 4441 is kind of the "4333" of the unbalanced hands. It is often 1 trick worse than 5431. This won't stop me from opening, but I don't get overexcited with it. I systematically passed one of them on my strong club system for a while, but eventally gave up on that. It was a bit random.

[jcl2]

after pass p open 1 spade

what is your bidding

jcl2

[yunling]

My idea is quite the opposite. I open most 11-count 4441(5 card major so mostly 1♦, though) and it works well in competitive bidding.

For suit contracts, 4441 is a mild plus for playing strength and has very good defensive potential.

Despite its strength, the shape has a poor ODR and often cannot afford to compete to 3 level, so the pass-then-double-for-takeout stretagy can turnout to be a disaster.

[hv=pc=n&s=skq43hj82d9863c74&w=st52hq94da52ca852&n=s7hk653dqjt4ckqt3&e=saj986hat7dk7cj96]399|300[/hv]

Both vul

This hand is played at 2012 spingold. Weinstein passed as north, Helness opened 1♠ and Helgemo raised to 2♠. Now Weinstein decided to double for takeout :(

At the other table Multon opened 1♦, Meckwell bid 3NT and was doubled for 1 down.

[Zelandakh]

This hand is played at 2012 spingold. Weinstein passed as north, Helness opened 1♠ and Helgemo raised to 2♠. Now Weinstein decided to double for takeout :(

At the other table Multon opened 1♦, Meckwell bid 3NT and was doubled for 1 down.

Perhaps PK could go through his database and find all 4441 hands that were opened 1m on one table and passed on the other, then collate the results for different hcp levels. Excluding hands with a singleton honour from the results would be a good idea but I think it might be an interesting set of statistics.

[fromageGB]

which bid are you thinking of which says that? ok, if you're playing an unbalanced diamond you're obviously in a superior , but still dubious, position, because you can play a 2D or ideally 1NT rebid as showing hearts, so at least you'll not miss your 44 heart fit.

The bid depends on whether the partnership is playing natural continuations or an artificial reply (different partners, but 1♦ is 6+ card or has singleton/void elsewhere).

 

NATURAL : 1♦ 1M 1NT=3-suiter short in M

ART : with this method, a reply of 1♥ is less than invitational with either or both majors, while 1♠ = any invitational or better.

1♦ 1♥! 1♠ = 3-suiter with spades, or 4x6x, and if responder has spades he raises, if he bids 1NT/2♣/2♦, opener knows he has hearts and will support. Responder can also rebid 2♥ with both majors in case opener's hearts are better than the spades.

1♦ 1♠! 1NT!= ANY 3-suiter, then 2♣ asks with opener bidding the one beneath the shortage, or responder rebids 2♥ with just a bare invitation and both majors.

 

But I don't think it matters what methods you play providing 1♦ has a shortage, because it will always be easy to find the fits.

[SixOfWands]

The title of this topic comes from tip No 7 in Paul Mendelson's excellent book " 100 tips for Better Bridge" He says :-

 

"The problem with hands like these is that as they contain three features,they really need three bids to convey their content.

In systems like Acol,when you can't freely bid two different 4 card suits,a considerable amount of fibbing is then involved.

The result of all this is you frequently end up in 4-3 trump fits(having to ruff in your own hand) and hopeless misfit NT contracts

short on points.

The solution is a simple one DON'T OPEN THE BIDDING WITH THIS DISTRIBUTION WITH ONLY 12 OR 13 POINTS

[hv=pc=n&n=s6haj98dkqj3cj632]133|100[/hv]

 

Let's say you open 1♥and partner responds 1♠(there is no problem if he bids anything else) In Acol you're stuck

If you play strong NT with 5 card majors and open a minor suit and get a 1♠ reply all you can do now is re-bid 1NT

This is a sure way of going down,possibly doubled,whenever partner is weak.

Just pass. If partner bids,you will be back in action. If he bids 1♠ on a minimum opener,you will now stay out

of a dodgy Game you couldn't have avoided had you opened,if he bids anything else you can get excited.

If an opponent opens 1♠,you have an ideal 2nd round double. If they bid anything else then you know that your pass was justified.

In the long run you will find yourself staying out of all these horrid contracts you wish you hadn't been faced with

With 14+ points, if partner bids your singleton you can re-bid NTs without risking so much.

The down side? A few missed part scores. Missing Game is impossible. If partner can't bid,what contract can you possibly miss?"

 

If you pass with 12 points you may pass out the hand for a bottom or the opponents may open 1NT and steal the hand.

What is worse about passing is that you're short in spades, the highest ranking suit and the opponents are very likely to have a fit there.

What are you going to do on the next round when the opponents bid and raise their weak 2S to 4S?

Don't open 1♥ with this shape open 1♦ in Acol of 5CM.

If partner responds 1♠ you have at least 18 points and 1NT would be a viable option, if they want to double bring it on!

If you play 12-14 NT then you can rebid 2♣ and give partner a choice of suits.

if the opponents compete in spades at least partner knows I have some points and we may find a penalty.

[creatbid]

I really don't understand where are the problems. First are comments made by Paul Mendelson that "they really need three bids to convey their content". Who teach you to raise three times with a low-limit only？For example, will you bid 1♥-2♠ with Axxx Axxxx Kx Jx？What's more, if you give up the first chance to open your hand, will you more probably have better opportunity to discribe what you hold after opponents waste the space of bidding？Secondly, how are you sure that this 1nt usually gets down with a double？It's frequent to see an opener with a free bid to play 1nt but they don't as you worry about deserve down and low-limt. Maybe you just need try a better play？I really hope you review again the whole of basic concepts of contract bridge before making yourself stuck on those problems you posted here.

[mike777]

If you pass with 12 points you may pass out the hand for a bottom or the opponents may open 1NT and steal the hand.

What is worse about passing is that you're short in spades, the highest ranking suit and the opponents are very likely to have a fit there.

What are you going to do on the next round when the opponents bid and raise their weak 2S to 4S?

Don't open 1♥ with this shape open 1♦ in Acol of 5CM.

If partner responds 1♠ you have at least 18 points and 1NT would be a viable option, if they want to double bring it on!

If you play 12-14 NT then you can rebid 2♣ and give partner a choice of suits.

if the opponents compete in spades at least partner knows I have some points and we may find a penalty.

 

1) you quote the facts i in fact you misquote a few

2) the rest is nonsense....complete nonsense

 

 

the result is you get the wrong conclusion.

 

 

passing this hand within agreements is just fine

----

 

 

I note the common very common complaint...the opp may steal the hand....yet you present zero evidence

--

 

my answer to you rquestion what if the opp bid 4s what do i bid is easy....PASS

[rhm]

passing this hand within agreements is just fine

I note the common very common complaint...the opp may steal the hand....yet you present zero evidence

Some trivial observations:

 

Assume a deal is competitive:

 

In one room North opens the bidding.

In the other North passes and East opens the bidding.

 

Which side do you believe is on average better positioned to beat absolute par (my definition of stealing).

North in the first room or in the latter?

It does not really matter to which side the absolute par contract belongs.

 

I think this can easily be shown in the way Richard Pavlicek has done such statistical analysis and published on his website, though I won't undertake it.

This is one reason why requirements for opening the bidding have gone down over the last decades.

The true Roth Stone approach to opening the bidding is all but extinct at top level play.

Opening the bidding has certainly tactical advantages, passing a 4441 12 count is problematic - not just fine.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[wank]

Some trivial observations:

 

Assume a deal is competitive:

 

In one room North opens the bidding.

In the other North passes and East opens the bidding.

 

Which side do you believe is on average better positioned to beat absolute par (my definition of stealing).

North in the first room or in the latter?

It does not really matter to which side the absolute par contract belongs.

 

I think this can easily be shown in the way Richard Pavlicek has done such statistical analysis and published on his website, though I won't undertake it.

This is one reason why requirements for opening the bidding have gone down over the last decades.

The true Roth Stone approach to opening the bidding is all but extinct at top level play.

Opening the bidding has certainly tactical advantages, passing a 4441 12 count is problematic - not just fine.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

thanks for that. i'll change my opening range to 0+