Tramticket Posted May 11, 2016 Report Share Posted May 11, 2016 [hv=pc=n&w=saq2ha5dakj973caj&e=s974hkqj876d2cq92]266|100[/hv] What is the best line in a contract of 7♥ by East on the 8♠ lead (no opposition bidding). Match-point Pairs, Non-vul. Vs. Vul. Bonus question: how would you bid this after East opens a Multi? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanoff Posted May 11, 2016 Report Share Posted May 11, 2016 Win, draw trumps, 2 top ♦s and ruff one. If ♦s break or there is a doubleton Q then we have 4 discards.Otherwise finesse ♣J before ruffing out ♦Q. 2♦-2N3♣(any max wk 2)-3♦(which?)4♦(♥s short ♦)-4NT5♣(1/4)-5♦6♥(♥Q no K/void)-7♥ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tramticket Posted May 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2016 Thank you. Yes, that's where I was coming out - you can't cope with a 4-2 diamond break without relying on the club finesse (which works on this occasion). My back of an envelope maths makes this about a 60% line - not quite good enough odds for bidding the big one at pairs. Our auction was similar (different responses to the 2NT enquiry, but same in all of the essentials). I probably should have stopped at 6♥. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tramticket Posted May 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2016 Deleted - Duplicate post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanoff Posted May 11, 2016 Report Share Posted May 11, 2016 My fag packet says 74% - what is the pairs % for a grand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tramticket Posted May 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2016 I did: 3-3 break = 36%4-2 break = 48% => so 4-2 and club finesse = 24% Total 60% But I may be wrong - its many years since I studied probability theory! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbenvic Posted May 12, 2016 Report Share Posted May 12, 2016 I did: 3-3 break = 36%4-2 break = 48% => so 4-2 and club finesse = 24% Total 60% But I may be wrong - its many years since I studied probability theory! There's also the 1 case of stiff Q offside, where you can finesse the ten (1/12 of .15 = 1.25%) and the 4-2 breaks where the Q falls doubleton, (10 of the 30 4-2 combo's or 1/3 of 48%, which is 16% plus half the other ones (48-16=32 halved is 16%) which gets me to 36 + 1.25 + 16 + 20 = 73.25% There's about a 0.5% of the K♠ being stiff, which takes us to 73.75% which is almost 74% Edit: I edited this as I originally only had 5 of the 30 4-2 combo's but given either hand can have Qx it should be 10 of the 30 combo's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tramticket Posted May 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 12, 2016 Thanks - yes, I said my maths was rusty! I'm feeling a bit happier about bidding the grand B-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuhchung Posted May 12, 2016 Report Share Posted May 12, 2016 Just picking a 1.25% nit. Which diamond are you going to lead to finesse when the Q drops stiff? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbenvic Posted May 13, 2016 Report Share Posted May 13, 2016 Just picking a 1.25% nit. Which diamond are you going to lead to finesse when the Q drops stiff? Lol, I'll try the 2 again :-) Sorry I was so busy working on the maths that I totally overlooked that tiny little flaw. A cunning plan Baldric....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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