Play trumps for no loser

[andrei]

7 boards Swiss IMP, last round, you are in first place

you did not play against the pair before, don't know their style.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sajhaqt54dqt4cj42&n=skq853h963d952cak&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1hp1sp1np4hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

First 4 tricks:

 

♦8 - ♦2 - ♦K - ♦10

♦A - ♦4 - ♦6 - ♦5

♦3 - ♦Q - ♥2 - ♦9

♣5 - ♣A - ♣3 - ♣2

 

 

So W leads his doubleton and E having AKJxx of diamonds gives W his ruff.

Now you need to pickup trumps.

[Fluffy]

Stiff King for me, but I suck at reading people's mind, the other day someone led a random doubleton with AKQx on a side suit and I missguessed a card due to it O_o.

[billw55]

I will try low to queen, which works if west started with Jxx or Jx, and pays off to Kx. Meanwhile low to the ten only targets xx.

[robert2734]

East with K ♥ along with ♦ AKJxx might have overcalled all white. But is this enough evidence to invoke rabbis rule? I'm going to rise with the ace.

[billw55]

East with K ♥ along with ♦ AKJxx might have overcalled all white.

I thought about this, but with hearts opened on his left he has reason to downgrade the ♥K, so this inference is not so strong. Meanwhile some players may not seek a ruff leading from ♥Kx. I think it's pretty much a wash.

[Phil]

Heart to A seems pretty bad to me.

[PhilG007]

You are not going to make this contract unless trumps break evenly and the

♥KJ are with East. You must play 9♥ from dummy and if not covered,run it.

If the 9 holds,continue with another trump from dummy and if East covers,play

just high enough to win the trick.Draw the remaining trump and claim. If trumps break 4-1

or West has ♥KJx the contract is doomed.

[ggwhiz]

♥Kx with those diamonds and out is a pretty good reason for easts silence. I'm leading to the queen

[Caitlynne]

There is no absolutely correct answer, only those that are most likely. The best (statistical) chance is to find the King onside and guarded once (playing the Queen will be successful). The next best shot is to find the King guarded once on your left (playing the Ace succeeds). It is least likely that the player with 2 diamonds also has a singleton in hearts (playing the 10 is what works).

[Zelandakh]

If we were to play ♣K, ♠A, ♣ ruff, does their carding throw up anything interesting? Did West cover the jack with the queen?

[andrei]

There is no absolutely correct answer, only those that are most likely. The best (statistical) chance is to find the King onside and guarded once (playing the Queen will be successful). The next best shot is to find the King guarded once on your left (playing the Ace succeeds). It is least likely that the player with 2 diamonds also has a singleton in hearts (playing the 10 is what works).

 

This is clear.

 

But, the absence of 2D bid in E makes it more likely that the K♥ is with W?

[andrei]

If we were to play ♣K, ♠A, ♣ ruff, does their carding throw up anything interesting? Did West cover the jack with the queen?

 

This line was not tried at the table.

With diamonds breaking 2-5, it's not impossible clubs brake 6-2.

[billw55]

There is no absolutely correct answer, only those that are most likely. The best (statistical) chance is to find the King onside and guarded once (playing the Queen will be successful). The next best shot is to find the King guarded once on your left (playing the Ace succeeds). It is least likely that the player with 2 diamonds also has a singleton in hearts (playing the 10 is what works).

Playing the queen also picks up Kxx onside because the jack drops.