1eyedjack Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 [hv=sn=1eyedjack&s=S32HAKQ62DT63CKQ4&wn=Robot&w=SK754HJ843D982CJ5&nn=Robot&n=SQ98H9DAQJ7CAT832&en=Robot&e=SAJT6HT75DK54C976&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=P1H(Major%20suit%20opening%20--%205+%20%21H%3B%2011-21%20HCP%3B)P2C(Forcing%20two%20over%20one%20--%2013+%20HCP%3B%20biddable%20%21C%3B%2014+%20total%20points%3B%20forcing%20to%203N)P2H(Opener%20rebids%20suit%20--%205+%20%21H%3B%2011-21%20HCP%3B)P2N(13+%20HCP%3B%20biddable%20%21C%3B%2014+%20total%20points%3B%20forcing%20to%203N)P3N(5%20%21H%3B%205-%20%21S%3B%2012-19%20HCP%3B%2022-%20total%20points)PPP&p=H5HAH3H9D3D2DQDKSAS2S5S8SJS3SKS9S4SQS6H2&c=10]400|300[/hv]MP, Instant, 35 Uncharacteristically for me I did not open 1N. As an aside, how bad a play is the Diamond hook at trick 2? It would of course be pretty awful at IMP, but this is MP. I reckon that the finesse is a bit below 50% because of the lead at trick 1. And when it fails you can be fairly confident of a Spade switch. But the Spade honours need not be split, or there could be a blockage. Or on a rare day they may not play Spade. I felt that these made up for the reduced odds of the finesse. Maybe bad reasoning. But WHAT a Spade switch! I confess that I had not factored that into my choice. Not a card that I would have chosen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnu Posted April 22, 2016 Report Share Posted April 22, 2016 At MPs, the diamond finesse is correct. For the 50% when the finesse is off, East will have ♠AK 25%, and West will have ♠AK 25%. So, at worst, playing for overtricks will work ~75%. If GIB East doesn't switch to spades, the odds go up to a lot more than 75%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robert2734 Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 How often do they wind up playing 3N by you. And the spades are 5-3 and the spade lead off the top sets the contract? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted April 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 How often do they wind up playing 3N by you. And the spades are 5-3 and the spade lead off the top sets the contract?Sorry I don't understand the question. Nor what it has to do with East's Spade Ace play at trick 3 that triggered the OP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robert2734 Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 At other tables they could be cashing 4 or 5 spade tricks off the top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted April 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 At other tables they could be cashing 4 or 5 spade tricks off the top.So this argues against d finesse? I take the point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robert2734 Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 If the spades are 5-3 you can lose no more than the diamond finesse and three spade tricks. If the spades are 3-5 , you probably would have gotton a spade lead. If the spades are 4-4, other declarers might have lost 4 spades off the top and just claim the last nine tricks. If the diamond finesse works you beat them and if it loses you probably don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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