When only I know 10 Vs 10 trumph fits

[lycier]

[hv=pc=n&s=sjt765hkq5dk865ca&d=w&v=n&b=12&a=p1s2c4c(splinter)5cpp?]400|300[/hv]

I am south.

According to the principle of suits distribution - when we cooperate with 10+ cards trumph fit, opps also have same 9+ cards suit fit at least.

For this hand, 5♣ probably shows opps have 10+ cards ♣ fit, now only I know 10 cards trumph Vs 10 cards trumph, I have no idea how to decide next action.

It is appreciated for any suggestion.

[1eyedjack]

Personally I would double. Partner's pass is forcing. The 5th trump, as you have identified, is a factor for bidding. But it is the only such factor in a hand that otherwise screams to defend. The law of total tricks is not that reliable at the 5 level.

[ggwhiz]

3♣ instead of 4♠ gives partner a chance to express an opinion and they are completely stymied from doing so after this 4♠ bid that in my partnership can be as wide ranging as you can imagine..... but not this hand.

 

On your worst day partner has AKxxxx, Axx, xx, xx (marginal defense or offence at best) and you have a slam

[P_Marlowe]

The Ace of Clubs would be better in a different suit, still it is not worthless, the Ace would

be a minus for the LoTT.

The LoTT works best with 17-18 total trumps, it loses a lot of accuracy if the number

of total trumps increases.

 

My suggestion would be to bid 5D as some kind of move toward slam, it is close.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[barmar]

3♣ instead of 4♠ gives partner a chance to express an opinion and they are completely stymied from doing so after this 4♠

Did you misread the auction? He bid 4♣ splinter, not 4♠.

[SteveMoe]

I'd want the 4♣ response to look more like ♠J10xxx ♥KQx ♦AKxx ♣x . As ggwhiz said this is a 3♣ bid not a 4♣ bid. Now the same flaw makes it harder to divine what's right.

 

Partner's pass says no wastage in ♣ with something more than a minimum, so we can put at least 12 HCP in the other 3 suits. That brings us up to 21 HCP outside of ♣. (Were we at 25 HCP outside of ♣, a move toward small slam is de rigeur).

 

Does partner have 1, 2, 3, or 4 of the missing key cards? I can't imagine the bidding going as it has if partner held only one keycard or 2 keys with a (sub) minimum (either would bring a double, not a forcing pass - e.g. ♠Q9xxx ♥Axx ♦AJx ♣xx). If partner holds only 2 Keys, the 5-level will be touchy (though the ♦A is likely onside if missing). With 3 or 4 keys, 6 will likely hunt. Seems like one move past 4♠ is called for - So I try 5♦.

 

If I were calling 2♣ over 1♠, you could expect 2QT and ♣KQxxxx. Something like ♠xx ♥xxx ♦AJx ♣KQxxxx looks about right...

[chasetb]

Lycier, your assumption is off - it is possible (and not unheard of) for you to have a 10-card fit, and the opponents to have two 8-card fits.

It's even possible to have an 11-card fit, and the opponents have three 8-card fits (very unlikely though)

[rmnka447]

Partner is unlikely to have much ♣ wastage, if any. Partner cannot know there's no ♣ losers. So I'm bidding 5 ♠.