Preempt (not) alerted

[apollo1201]

Friendly IMP game with partnerships created for the occasion. Green against red, bidding goes 1S pass 3S not alerted and explained as limit raise with 4 trump support after you ask. You hold:

(void)

QJx

QJ9x

KQ9xxx

 

What do you bid? And what if the raise is explained as weakish (4-7 HCPs with 4 trumps)?

 

We were exchanging the deals with another table (we were 8 and faking a duplicate) where it had gone 1S p 4S 5C X for 800. Opener's partner had actually KQxxx xxx Kxx xx.

[Charlie Yu]

4C either way.

[rmnka447]

PASS

 

If the explanation (limit raise) were correct, think about the implication.

 

You are looking at an 11 HCP count. LHO probably has at least an 11 HCP count and RHO something like a 10 HCP count. Adding all three hands up, you get 32 total HCP accounted for, leaving partner with a possible maximum of about 8 HCP. Unless your opponents are very aggressive light openers, they'll be a great deal of the time that LHO will have more reducing your partner's possible point count even more.

 

Being an inveterate point counter isn't necessarily a good thing. But here on an order of magnitude basis, doing the math tells you that holding about 19 HCP max for a 4 level contract which typically requires something like 25-26 to make isn't a good thing.

 

Additionally, your points are mostly quacks (Qs and Js) which have limited trick taking potential. If you take this into consideration, you're looking at more like a 9 point true count hand versus an 11 actual point count hand.

 

Partner is marked with ♠ length which portends a possible misfit for the opponents and reduces chances for a big fit with partner.

 

Lastly, the opponents big hand is behind you making all your points less valuable.

 

If it turns out LHO made an incorrect explanation because of an honest error (forgetfulness, misunderstanding), then that's the "rub of the green".

 

But even if it's a preemptive raise, it's still right to Pass rather leap in at the 4 level with the size of LHO hand still unlimited. If partner can find a call when 3 ♠ is passed to him/her, you'll be happy to bid.

[ggwhiz]

PASS

But even if it's a preemptive raise, it's still right to Pass rather leap in at the 4 level with the size of LHO hand still unlimited. If partner can find a call when 3 ♠ is passed to him/her, you'll be happy to bid.

 

This.

 

Quacks are for defense and if it's alerted as weak my partner is very good at balancing.

[Jinksy]

I would bid 4♣. Agree with a lot of what rmnka said, which merits caution but a) we're favourable with good chances of a profitable sac and b) I think (s)he makes two errors:

 

Partner is marked with ♠ length which portends a possible misfit for the opponents and reduces chances for a big fit with partner.

 

Partner is odds on to have some spades, but he's hardly 'marked with length'. At these colours, RHO might have a five-card suit, and there's nothing stopping LHO from having 9 of them.

 

Lastly, the opponents big hand is behind you making all your points less valuable.

 

I actually find sequences missing the A and K/Q play better under a (hand likely to be a) weak NT than over them. Esp when you have the 9, you'll often be able to run an honour through an bare king towards P's ace, and it's fairly unlikely that they'll be able to make three natural tricks in the suit - you'd need both honours and the T to be with LHO. I would rather have holdings like this, conditional on P having points, than eg K9 or even KT holdings under the stronger hand.

 

That doesn't make quacks any more appealing in the abstract, but subject to our side having them at all, I feel relatively good about their positioning.

 

I would rather bid now and potentially involve P than decide what to do when 4♠ comes back to me.

[rmnka447]

I would bid 4♠. Agree with a lot of what rmnka said, which merits caution but a) we're favourable with good chances of a profitable sac and b) I think he makes two errors:

 

Pay your money, take your choice.

 

Partner is odds on to have some spades, but he's hardly 'marked with length'. At these colours, RHO might have a five-card suit, and there's nothing stopping LHO from having 9 of them.

 

Good point about possible RHO opponent 5 card holding, but hardly something to hang your hat on. If RHO holds 5 and bid only 3 ♠, it would seem to indicate an otherwise flat hand. With 5 and outside distribution, RHO is likely to bid 4 immediately if weak or possibly splinter with enough for a limit raise. Best guess with no other info is 5 with LHO, 4 with RHO putting 4 in pard's hand. Acting on a greater or lesser number is projecting a holding into partner's hand -- generally not a good thing to do. Also, the more cards partner is likely to hold in their suit, the more partner is likely to hold some of his/her total values there which reduces the amount held for enhancing the trick taking power of your hand.

 

I actually find sequences missing the A and K/Q play better under a (hand likely to be a) weak NT than over them. Esp when you have the 9, you'll often be able to run an honour through an bare king towards P's ace, and it's fairly unlikely that they'll be able to make three natural tricks in the suit - you'd need both honours and the T to be with LHO. I would rather have holdings like this, conditional on P having points, than eg K9 or even KT holdings under the stronger hand.

 

That doesn't make quacks any more appealing in the abstract, but subject to our side having them at all, I feel relatively good about their positioning.

 

I would rather bid now and potentially involve P than decide what to do when 4♠ comes back to me.

 

How many As and Ks do you expect partner to have when limited to maybe 8 HCP against a light opener and a bit less against any more solid opener?

 

As I said, pay your money and take your choice, just trying to point out some other things to consider.

[Jinksy]

Best guess with no other info is 5 with LHO, 4 with RHO putting 4 in pard's hand.

 

I think this is wrong. I'm not sure whether/how much a priori odds affect the exact probability, but with 9 cards known in the opps' hands, giving RHO exactly 4, there's 8 empty spaces in LHO's hand and 13 in P's, so LHO rates to have approx 1.6 of the outstanding spades.

 

How many As and Ks do you expect partner to have when limited to maybe 8 HCP against a light opener and a bit less against any more solid opener?

 

Sure, I don't expect much power. But I'm saying we shouldn't downgrade both for quacks and for their positioning. We have a hand with bad honours, well positioned. If partner has a red suit ace, we might well be able to bring that suit in for no losers. In any suit where he lacks either honour, subject to them not ruffing the third round, we rate not to have more than two losers.

[johnu]

I would bid 4♠.

 

Won't partner think you have something for your 4♠ bid?

[Jinksy]

Won't partner think you have something for your 4♠ bid?

 

One day I'll learn to proofread my posts :\