EU Brexit thread

[cherdano]

So a few months in, let's take stock.

 

There have been some reports that the UK economy hasn't suffered much by Brexit. That sounds a bit like saying "Yay, my boss is still paying me for 40h a week! (After he cut my salary by 20%.)" Normally a currency devaluation like the one the GBP just suffered leads to an enormous boost, and it would be a silly thing to do while unemployment is low. With Brexit, it just about manages to keep things going about as mediocre as before.

 

Meanwhile, a lot of posters here assured us that voting for Brexit wasn't really about immigration, or at least not about high-skilled immigration. I am sure they were all protesting in the streets when Theresa May announced that foreign doctors may be forced out of the NHS by 2025, that companies had to produce lists of foreign workers, that it would be a hard Brexit, etc. Right? Surely Theresa May is completely misunderstanding the voting intentions of many who voted for Brexit?

 

Meanwhile, Theresa May is is urged to promise Nissan that there won't by EU tariffs, a promise that only the EU could make - just a small sign for the utterly weak position the UK has put itself in.

 

But at least the UK won't have to put up with EU refrigerator regulations any more. (Except of course no company in the world would manufacture special UK-refrigerator non-conformant with EU regulations.)

[Al_U_Card]

So, thus far, Brexit = not enough of a change to make a difference to most?

[cherdano]

So, thus far, Brexit = not enough of a change to make a difference to most?

LOL.

[Trinidad]

So, in the UK nobody is complaining about the price increases for imported stuff? Or is it the oil companies' fault that fuel isn't cheaper?

 

Rik

[Zelandakh]

So, thus far, Brexit = not enough of a change to make a difference to most?

In the same way that turning off every coal power station in the world and adding a worldwide carbon tax would be not enough of a change to make a difference to most?

[fromageGB]

We haven't seen any impact yet from the decision, of course. What we have seen is the pound plummeting from the obvious government policy of reducing the value of the pound to lessen the burden of debt. Or if it is not government policy, Carney should be sacked. Once upon a time we put the interest rates up when inflation was about to hit : now it seems the opposite.

 

What we are hearing is a lot of noise, with a number of international trading partners looking forward to reduced tariffs when we leave the EU, with JCB quitting the CBI over their petulant anti-Brexit stance, with many people threatening doom and gloom without actually dismantling their factories or whatever, but what we are feeling and actually seeing is nothing yet. As expected. Give it a couple of years and come back to this thread.

[cherdano]

We haven't seen any impact yet from the decision, of course. What we have seen is the pound plummeting from the obvious government policy of reducing the value of the pound to lessen the burden of debt.

LOL.

[fromageGB]

So, in the UK nobody is complaining about the price increases for imported stuff? Or is it the oil companies' fault that fuel isn't cheaper?

Rik

 

It's the fault of your compatriots, apparently! Interesting extract from the Independent :

 

Tesco is running out of several leading household brands following a row over prices with its major supplier Unilever.

The food, toiletries and household goods firm have refused to supply the supermarket giant after it refused to raise prices by 10 per cent on their products.

Unilever, which is based in the Netherlands, claimed that due to the dramatic fall in the value of the pound compared to the euro and the dollar they had to put up prices.

Unilever, which controls brands such as Marmite, Dove, Comfort, Flora, Pot Noodle and Ben & Jerrys, has reportedly approached several retailers asking them to raise prices in response.

One anonymous source told the Guardian: “Unilever is using Brexit as an excuse to raise prices, even on products that are made in the UK”.

[Trinidad]

It's the fault of your compatriots, apparently! Interesting extract from the Independent :

 

Tesco is running out of several leading household brands following a row over prices with its major supplier Unilever.

The food, toiletries and household goods firm have refused to supply the supermarket giant after it refused to raise prices by 10 per cent on their products.

Unilever, which is based in the Netherlands, claimed that due to the dramatic fall in the value of the pound compared to the euro and the dollar they had to put up prices.

Unilever, which controls brands such as Marmite, Dove, Comfort, Flora, Pot Noodle and Ben & Jerrys, has reportedly approached several retailers asking them to raise prices in response.

One anonymous source told the Guardian: “Unilever is using Brexit as an excuse to raise prices, even on products that are made in the UK”.

Thanks for the info!

 

It seems to me that a large part of the UK public is in stage 1 of coping with grieve and loss: Denial. They want to live on as if nothing has happened.

 

The next stages will be anger (some people seem to be there already, at least they blame Unilever for the UK mess), bargaining (the UK ain't ready for that yet), depression (yes, the worst is still to come) and acceptance (this may take a while).

 

Rik

[1eyedjack]

It seems to me that a large part of the UK public is in stage 1 of coping with grieve and loss: Denial. They want to live on as if nothing has happened.

I am curious to know how you perceive the demographics of the "large part of the UK public" who are "in denial". Do you mean Bremainers, or Brexiteers? Or both?

 

For denial to be inappropriate, there has to have been a loss to be denied. A few marmite jars missing from a supermarket shelf for a week or two because of a spat between a couple of corporations, heavyweights though they may be, does not really cut it.

 

My expectation is that you refer to Brexiteers. The Bremainers would generally be only too happy to believe in a perceived manifestation of loss as justifying their preference. and tend to the "I told you so" camp.

 

My perception of the Brexiteers is that they take a longer term view. Market fluctuations caused by market speculators is not of primary concern to them, nor were they unexpected. Incidentally, there is also a large part of the UK business world that is not doing badly at all out of the recent fluctuations. It may be rather premature to criticise them for being in denial, if the current snapshot is atypical of the position in 5 years time.

[Al_U_Card]

The pound has lost 15% to the euro since June. Not so much a plummet as a decline.

 

Here in Canada, we lost about 30% to the U$ over the last year or so. Off season fruit and veg are much more expensive than they should be but we are getting a greater variety of sources...

 

We have been worse in the recent past (50% below U$) and better (5% above) with not much of a difference long-term.

 

Brexit-shmexit.

[Zelandakh]

The pound has lost 15% to the euro since June. Not so much a plummet as a decline.

Perhaps you could refer us to the last time the exchange rate stood at $1.22 per pound so we could compare with that "recent past".

[helene_t]

My perception of the Brexiteers is that they take a longer term view. Market fluctuations caused by market speculators is not of primary concern to them, nor were they unexpected. Incidentally, there is also a large part of the UK business world that is not doing badly at all out of the recent fluctuations. It may be rather premature to criticise them for being in denial, if the current snapshot is atypical of the position in 5 years time.

As much as I would like brexiters to regret their decision (and obviously there will be some who just meant their brexit vote as an anti-Cameron protest, or fell for the NHS funding lie and have since woken up), I think this is largely correct. For most, it was about getting rid of the Brussels overlords and/or about getting rid of immigrants. So government initiatives like protecting troops against human right lawsuits, and registration of immigrant school children, may well be perceived as "Brexit is even better than I hoped for".

 

Personally, I am also a little bit fed up with all that exchange rate and stock exchange index panic. The falling pound just shows us that many dealers think that many dealers think that many dealers think [.....] that May's policies are bad for the economy, at least in the short term. Personally, I tend to agree that they are bad for the economy, especially in the long term. But the falling pound is unsurprising, and not good evidence for it.

[Al_U_Card]

Perhaps you could refer us to the last time the exchange rate stood at $1.22 per pound so we could compare with that "recent past".

Perhaps you could read that I was referring to Can/US as a comparison and that it shows that monetary exchange vagaries vary and get absorbed without catastrophy.

[Vampyr]

Thanks for the info!

 

It seems to me that a large part of the UK public is in stage 1 of coping with grieve and loss: Denial. They want to live on as if nothing has happened.

 

The next stages will be anger (some people seem to be there already, at least they blame Unilever for the UK mess), bargaining (the UK ain't ready for that yet), depression (yes, the worst is still to come) and acceptance (this may take a while).

 

Rik

 

Wow you are so bitter. Try not to take it too personally. Brexit was about leaving you specifically.

[wank]

a load of xenophobes and other ignoramuses screwed me and my descendants. why would anyone not be bitter about that?

[Cyberyeti]

a load of xenophobes and other ignoramuses screwed me and my descendants. why would anyone not be bitter about that?

 

This is the typical attitude of many Remainers that utterly pisses off the many Brexiteers who are none of those things. Of the 4 people I know for a fact voted out, 3 are educated types with an intimate knowledge of the potential consequences of what they were doing. The other is a bridge player and I wouldn't argue anything like as much about the description :)

[cherdano]

This is the typical attitude of many Remainers that utterly pisses off the many Brexiteers who are none of those things. Of the 4 people I know for a fact voted out, 3 are educated types with an intimate knowledge of the potential consequences of what they were doing. The other is a bridge player and I wouldn't argue anything like as much about the description :)

I am sure your friends are protesting, now that Theresa May has made clear that the mandate from Brexit is to throw out foreign doctors, and enable hostility to all other kinds of foreign workers? I would be furious if my vote would misconstrued in such a terrible manner.

[Cyberyeti]

I am sure your friends are protesting, now that Theresa May has made clear that the mandate from Brexit is to throw out foreign doctors, and enable hostility to all other kinds of foreign workers? I would be furious if my vote would misconstrued in such a terrible manner.

 

The one I've chatted to more recently (actually not a UK citizen, he and his wife are from different non UK EU countries with British student age kids) not. I believe little of what's said by UK/EU at the moment and treat it all as setting up negociating positions.

[helene_t]

The one I've chatted to more recently (actually not a UK citizen, he and his wife are from different non UK EU countries with British student age kids) not. I believe little of what's said by UK/EU at the moment and treat it all as setting up negociating positions.

I am not sure that makes it so much better (but that might also not be your point).

 

Promoting hatred because one genuinely feels hatred, or promoting hatred because one thinks that pretending to be a xenophobe is a good negotiation tactic, and considering the victims of the hatred to be collateral damage. I don't know which is worse.

 

Before WWII, Daily Mail repeatedly agitated against giving shelter to Jewish refugees from Germany. They have gone full circle by now: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/daily-mail-brexit-daily-express-the-sun-tabloids-language-political-intolerance-traitors-a7357591.html

[Cyberyeti]

I am not sure that makes it so much better (but that might also not be your point).

 

Promoting hatred because one genuinely feels hatred, or promoting hatred because one thinks that pretending to be a xenophobe is a good negotiation tactic, and considering the victims of the hatred to be collateral damage. I don't know which is worse.

 

Before WWII, Daily Mail repeatedly agitated against giving shelter to Jewish refugees from Germany. They have gone full circle by now: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/daily-mail-brexit-daily-express-the-sun-tabloids-language-political-intolerance-traitors-a7357591.html

 

I don't think anybody is PROMOTING hatred in mainstream politics, but a few on the fringes are. The problem is that the racists have taken encouragement from the Brexit vote.

 

I think it's a case of "If we rule out this option, then we lose it as a bargaining chip". I have every expectation that EU citizens in the UK and Brits in the EU will get reciprocal rights and that they will see very little change, but if the UK says "yes you can all stay", the EU has a free hand to offer what it likes.

 

There is a major difference between now and the WWII situation. If we didn't offer shelter at that time, they had nowhere to go, they would very likely have died. Now they've already passed through at least 2 countries (and often many more) that are safe, and are letting them head for Britain rather than discharging their obligations. If some of the intervening countries recorded and accommodated the migrants in any sensible fashion (and if they refused they didn't get in), the ones with a claim for asylum in the UK due to relatives here etc could be handled without the squalor of Calais.

[blackshoe]

Someone a while ago asked what research there was to support the concept of crowding leading to problems for society.

"If too many animals are crowded into too small a space, they will all go insane. Man is the only animal who voluntarily does this to himself." -- R. A. Heinlein

[Trinidad]

I am curious to know how you perceive the demographics of the "large part of the UK public" who are "in denial". Do you mean Bremainers, or Brexiteers? Or both?

I mean everybody who denies that product prices should increase when the value of your currency drops significantly (i.e. those Brits who point at Unilever for inflation instead of at the Brexit voters). They are in denial. Whether they voted Brexit or Bremain is irrelevant to me (though I expect that there will be a correlation).

 

Rik

[Cyberyeti]

I mean everybody who denies that product prices should increase when the value of your currency drops significantly (i.e. those Brits who point at Unilever for inflation instead of at the Brexit voters). They are in denial. Whether they voted Brexit or Bremain is irrelevant to me (though I expect that there will be a correlation).

 

Rik

 

The problem was that Unilever was hiking prices of stuff made in the UK from UK ingredients as well.

[fromageGB]

If the price of Marmite increases because of the usual corporate greed when there is a currency change (think decimalisation) or supply change (think domestic fuel/petrol prices) then once we have a free trade deal with Australia, which we are forbidden to do as part of the EU, we can switch to Vegemite.

 

Seriously, though, this devaluation is government policy and not purely related to a possible Brexit that is at least 2.5 years away if it happens. We need to get used to rising inflation.