EU Brexit thread

[mike777]

Ummm.... the EU is not a country. And Juncker is no Jack Kennedy.

 

OK fair enough, hence it seemed at the very least easier to walk away from however you do define and measure the EU. You clearly feel that the duty only runs in one direction. That was my point.

[y66]

Guest post by Tony Blair:

 

The political center has lost its power to persuade and its essential means of connection to the people it seeks to represent. Instead, we are seeing a convergence of the far left and far right. The right attacks immigrants while the left rails at bankers, but the spirit of insurgency, the venting of anger at those in power and the addiction to simple, demagogic answers to complex problems are the same for both extremes. Underlying it all is a shared hostility to globalization.

 

Britain and Europe now face a protracted period of economic and political uncertainty, as the British government tries to negotiate a future outside the single market where half of Britain’s goods and services are traded. These new arrangements — to be clear about the scale of the challenge — must be negotiated with all the other 27 countries, their individual parliaments and the European Parliament. Some governments may be cooperative; others won’t want to make leaving easy for Britain, in order to discourage similar movements.

 

Britain is a strong country, with a resilient people and energy and creativity in abundance. I don’t doubt Britons’ capacity to come through, whatever the cost. But the stress on the United Kingdom is already apparent.

 

Voters in Scotland chose by a large margin to remain in Europe, with the result that there are renewed calls for another referendum on Scottish independence. Northern Ireland has benefited from virtually open borders with the Republic of Ireland. That freedom is at risk because the North’s border with the South now becomes the European Union’s border, a potential threat to the Northern Ireland peace process.

 

If the people — usually a repository of common sense and practicality — do something that appears neither sensible nor practical, then it forces a period of long and hard reflection. My own politics is waking to this new political landscape. The same dangerous impulses are visible, too, in American politics, but the challenges of globalization cannot be met by isolationism or shutting borders.

 

The center must regain its political traction, rediscover its capacity to analyze the problems we all face and find solutions that rise above the populist anger. If we do not succeed in beating back the far left and far right before they take the nations of Europe on this reckless experiment, it will end the way such rash action always does in history: at best, in disillusion; at worst, in rancorous division. The center must hold.

[helene_t]

A nice survey of attitudes among remain and leave voters: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

 

Maybe not many surprising issues. Leave voters have "Decisions about UK being taken in the UK" as their most frequently cited reason for voting leave, while remain voters are mostly motivated by economic issues. Somewhat depressingly, rights and NHS are largely seen as arguments for leaving rather than staying, and environmental issues are not an issue at all.

 

Remain voters tend to be more positive towards all kind of social forces, including feminism, environmentalism, social liberalism and the internet. This makes some sense given the difference in age profile.

[Winstonm]

I believe

four gentlement voted for leave.

[Aberlour10]

I believe

four gentlement voted for leave.

 

Basil Fawlty for sure, so sure as Al Bundy would vote for Trump :rolleyes:

 

 

 

 

 

[hrothgar]

I have seen a number of claims that the referendum is not, in fact, binding.

 

Rather, an act of parliament is required to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and that hasn't happened yet.

(I've also seen suggestions that this might be a good time for a general election)

[cherdano]

I have seen a number of claims that the referendum is not, in fact, binding.

Correct.

Rather, an act of parliament is required to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and that hasn't happened yet.

There has also been a suggestion that the Scottish parliament would have to approve...

[Lovera]

I have seen a number of claims that the referendum is not, in fact, binding.

 

Rather, an act of parliament is required to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and that hasn't happened yet.

(I've also seen suggestions that this might be a good time for a general election)

I was waiting it to enter:i think that it could be the "more simply way" (in this cases there are always complexities that have to be considered). A consideration has moved my thinking (as in Scottish referendum): when parts - revealed by polls/previsions - are near on sondages wins "the status quo" or it is more probable that anything change. The "risk" is that the resulting can be althered or that wins the part opposite. This is the why it needs a qualified majority and referendum had to confirm it. Why D. Cameroun has allowed this if had changed his point of view ?

[shyams]

If this goes bad, I blame the Labour Leadership!

This is it. Labour leaders are pointing fingers are each other for the debacle. They are lining up on TV to blame everyone, including their own colleagues.

What a bunch of idiots!

Fingers crossed, today's coup in the Labour team will remove Jeremy Corbyn.

 

If he had openly said he believes in Brexit, I'd at least respect him for being honest. IMO, he instead resorted to underhand techniques to depress the share of Labour voters choosing "Remain". And for that one act alone, he deserves to be relegated to the footnotes of history.

 

And BTW, despite being a Londoner and belonging to the "parasite class" (as per fromageGB), I have voted for Labour in most elections. So yes, I have a right to demand Corbyn's firing.

[fromageGB]

Some parasites are beneficial to the organism.

And no, I don't believe merely voting for a party counts. You need to belong. I am not a member, but I do feel he is about the only person in the Westminster block that reflects the member's feelings, although I do agree that he should have stood by his beliefs.

[Cyberyeti]

Labour suffers from what I call Republican syndrome. To win the approval of party members, you have to be so extreme that you alienate the swing voters you need to woo to be electable.

 

I have little problem with Corbyn's position, he personally doesn't believe in EU membership, but accepts that it's beneficial to many of the people he represents so feels bound to vote for it. His lack of enthusiasm for the campaign is entirely understandable.

[cherdano]

3. Many UK politicians have gone on record to tell all EU citizens in the UK that nothing will change. If I were to guess (and I have no idea whether I'll be right), EU nationals not in minimum wage jobs (i.e. most EU nationals) in the UK will find their lives and livelihood unaffected. You may have to fill a few documents and spend a couple of hours, but your life and your residence status will probably not change.

I bet you have never applied for a VISA or permanent residency in a country that you want to live in/stay in.

 

It is always a bit of a nerve-wracking process. It is a process in which you have no due process rights, not even a standing to complain if a decision goes against you. There is a lot of paperwork to get right, and in theory your application can get denied just for getting one of the formalities wrong. Well, in the case of the UK, also in practice - the home office is notorious for doing that. And it's not just your own mistakes that could cost you - you also depend on your employer, whose interests don't completely align with yours.

 

I say all of that from experience of my own (in the US) and friends (in the US or in the UK). Now take into account that most of us (post-docs or permanent employees at highly respected universities, caucasian, a lot of friends to ask who have gone through the process, etc.) are probably among the most priviledged VISA applicants around.

[helene_t]

I bet you have never applied for a VISA or permanent residency in a country that you want to live in/stay in.

 

It is always a bit of a nerve-wracking process.

For example:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/american-shakespeare-expert-paul-hamilton-arrested-pending-deportation-from-uk-a6835766.html

 

If something like that could happen to me after Brexit then I don't think I want to stay in the country.

[1eyedjack]

I feel that if there is one EU politician who is absolutely ecstatic about this result, his name is Jean-Claude Juncker. Going by his public rhetoric he can barely contain his glee at the prospect of getting shot of the country that has with its "veto this" and "veto that" mentality been an irritating thorn in his plans for a single political superstate.Presumably someone else will have to take up that baton now.

[fromageGB]

For example: ...

If something like that could happen to me after Brexit then I don't think I want to stay in the country.

This seems to have happened before the Brexit situation arose, so not really relevant. After Brexit has happened, we may or may not decide we want more perpetual spongers (if that is the word for history academics).

[shyams]

I bet you have never applied for a VISA or permanent residency in a country that you want to live in/stay in.

 

It is always a bit of a nerve-wracking process. It is a process in which you have no due process rights, not even a standing to complain if a decision goes against you. There is a lot of paperwork to get right, and in theory your application can get denied just for getting one of the formalities wrong. Well, in the case of the UK, also in practice - the home office is notorious for doing that. And it's not just your own mistakes that could cost you - you also depend on your employer, whose interests don't completely align with yours.

 

I say all of that from experience of my own (in the US) and friends (in the US or in the UK). Now take into account that most of us (post-docs or permanent employees at highly respected universities, caucasian, a lot of friends to ask who have gone through the process, etc.) are probably among the most priviledged VISA applicants around.

I have experience of going through all the paperwork. After all, I am a naturalised citizen. I originally came here on a work permit many years ago....

And I am of an Asian ethnicity; it should not be too difficult to imagine the kind of difficulties I may have faced applying for visas (whether for the UK or elsewhere in Europe).

 

As for dealing with Home Office / Foreign Office, I have a personal examples which tells me it's not going to be bad.

• At the end of my work permit period, I was eligible to apply for permanent residence. The whole process took 2-3 days, and required my personal involvement for 15 minutes (filling some sections of a form, signing, and submitting my passport + other documents).
  
• Due to a technical issue with my wife's application, she was initially not granted her permanent residence (she had been visiting her parents when I applied for mine). She called the Home Office helpline. And while it took her 30+ minutes to get through to someone, once she started talking to them they were able to guide her through all processes and get everything sorted. It probably took a day of her personal involvement --- which in the context of a permanent (or at least, multi-decade) plan to reside in the UK was not too much to ask.
  
• I've had many friends and colleagues from my native country visit the UK on business and/or tourism. And despite their skin colour (Asian, like me), I have never heard of anyone being turned down.

What is common to all of the above and people like Helene or you? We are all highly qualified / skilled professionals.

 

In summary, no -- I absolutely do not think Helene or you have to worry about being asked to leave. This country needs people like you. And will continue to keep the doors open for a wide variety of skilled professionals to come & reside here.

[Lovera]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-result-latest-david-lammy-mp-eu-referendum-result-parliament-twitter-statement-stop-this-a7102931.html

[Aberlour10]

Today I read everywhere, young Brits complain... the older generations have stolen their future by voting for leave.

 

They should ask themselves, why did they not get their ass up und went these few yards to vote.

 

Only 36% 18-24y old and 58% 25-34y old did it!

 

its all their own fault

[Winstonm]

Today I read everywhere, young Brits complain... the older generations have stolen their future by voting for leave.

 

They should ask themselves, why did they not get their ass up und went these few yards to vote.

 

Only 36% 18-24y old and 58% 25-34y old did it!

 

its all their own fault

By God when I was their age I had to get up 3 hours before I went to bed... :P

[cherdano]

I have experience of going through all the paperwork.

My apologies for making wrong assumptions. And thank you for sharing your experiences, I am glad you found them to be positive. (Though I'd wonder whether they'd still have been positive in the years since Theresa May's and David Cameron's "100000 net immigration" pledge.)

 

I am not as sanguine about it as you are. Maybe because I have seen short-term VISAs denied or delayed for no good reason. Because I have seen colleagues who had to significantly change plans in order to comply with VISA regulations, against what would have been best for their career. Because I have seen too many who couldn't stay on in the US after their post-doc because they checked a wrong box in their J1 VISA application. Because I have seen couples live apart because while they found two jobs at the same place, but one of them didn't qualify for a VISA yet due to the same J1 issue. Because I have seen too many H1B spouses who not only made the sacrifice to move along where their partner's job took them, but by force also the sacrifice of not being able to work at all until their VISA status changed. And to repeat, these are all experiences from within a small, highly privileged class.

 

Moreover, every single hiring exercise we go through (whether for permanent positions or post-docs or PhD students) reminds me of the mess . Every single hiring process is about three times as bureaucratic as it would have to be, and much less flexible than I'd want it to be - just because we have to comply with (constantly changing) Home Office rules

 

But finally, your compartmentalising logic also doesn't work for me on a purely emotional level. When I meet a Polish immigrant in the bus, or a Romanian immigrant comes to do a job in our house, or another immigrant takes care of my son in his day care, then I feel I have something in common with them - having immigrated to the same country, maybe having some of the same mixed feelings about it, etc. So when the fromageGBs of the world want those Eastern European immigrants out, then I feel targeted, too. Their anger might not be directed at me, and the Boris Johnson's of Westminster would probably never implemented immigration rules that would life directly difficult for me. But when they target them, I identify; and when Nicola Sturgeon or Sadiq Khan make a point of being welcoming to them and all other immigrants, it touches me on a personal level.

 

I don't want to complain, as you say my own personal situation will almost certainly be fine. The last few days, I have often been thinking about the other big news from Thursday - the Supreme Court halting Obama's deferred action program, and handing its future back into the hands of Judge Hanen - who seems a rather odd and opinionated character, mildly put. That's 4.5 million people who now, unlike me, actually have to worry about possibly being deported. And many many millions more who'll identify with them, just as I identify with Eastern European immigrants to the UK.

[cherdano]

This seems to have happened before the Brexit situation arose, so not really relevant.

 

You are missing the point. If that can happen to US scientists in the UK before Brexit, then it could possibly happen to EU scientists in the UK after Brexit, depending on coming new immigration rules. (Of course, maybe Boris Johnson fooled you and his government will never actually implement rules to curb immigration from the EU. Ha ha, very funny.)

[Cyberyeti]

You are missing the point. If that can happen to US scientists in the UK before Brexit, then it could possibly happen to EU scientists in the UK after Brexit, depending on coming new immigration rules. (Of course, maybe Boris Johnson fooled you and his government will never actually implement rules to curb immigration from the EU. Ha ha, very funny.)

 

I suspect people with a degree are not the immigrants that will be curbed. Note that immigration to Australia went up after they implemented the points system, it just depends what we need. Whether we're competent enough to know what we need however ...

[cherdano]

I suspect people with a degree are not the immigrants that will be curbed. Note that immigration to Australia went up after they implemented the points system, it just depends what we need. Whether we're competent enough to know what we need however ...

Sorry, I should have quoted the link this was referring to. Here it is again:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/american-shakespeare-expert-paul-hamilton-arrested-pending-deportation-from-uk-a6835766.html

 

Maybe a post-Brexit immigration policy would be more restrictive AND more rational. I'll believe the Home Office on that when I see it.

[Cyberyeti]

Sorry, I should have quoted the link this was referring to. Here it is again:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/american-shakespeare-expert-paul-hamilton-arrested-pending-deportation-from-uk-a6835766.html

 

Maybe a post-Brexit immigration policy would be more restrictive AND more rational. I'll believe the Home Office on that when I see it.

 

That sounds more like cockup than conspiracy, I didn't say the home office was competent.

[cherdano]

That sounds more like cockup than conspiracy, I didn't say the home office was competent.

Sigh. Are you intentionally missing the point? No one claimed that this was a conspiracy. The point is that no one wants their basic freedom (as in, not being put in jail in preparation for a deportation without any warning) to depend on the competence of the Home Office.