EU Brexit thread

[WellSpyder]

Sounds a bit as though someone should have told Cameron not to ask the question unless he would be content with whatever the answer was. Apparently he also didn't think it would happen.

Classic policy-making. Someone says something they have not really thought through to get themselves out of a political difficulty, and finds years later that they have changed the world....

[hrothgar]

GBP:USD at 1.41 (vs. 1.50 at 10:30pm last night). It's probably going to get much worse in the next couple of hours.

 

Not going to be a good day for the market... Lets hope that the damage is limited to the FTSE.

***** Brits.

[fromageGB]

If this goes bad, I blame the Labour Leadership!

It went very well, but the Labour leader has said the voters' decision should be respected and he will work to achieve it. Perhaps it's about time he stood up for his beliefs and changed the parliamentary party's policies to be more in line with its key voters - who overwhelmingly are in favour of leaving the EU and abandoning nuclear weapons. I expect the blairites will call for a change of leadership, but I hope the party calls for a change of parliamentarians.

[fromageGB]

Interestingly the ONLY region in the whole of England and Wales that voted for remain was London. ALL the rest of the country's regions voted to leave.

 

Londoners have I suppose seen their house prices increase with all the immigration, and a good proportion of them work for financial institutions and other parasites.

 

The rest of the country has suffered, with jobs, housing, social services going to immigrants, and the EU is intent on the suffering increasing. When Cameron said he was going to make the North-East the powerhouse of England, perhaps he meant the poorhouse.

 

Scotland and northern Ireland voted to remain, but now England is leaving perhaps their independence parties will get more active.

[fromageGB]

When the early voting results were coming in, I was thinking that if Sunderland was going to leave the EU I might have to move to Sunderland. Thank God I now don't have to. :)

[wank]

yes, congratulations, you've made an economic black hole on your own doorstep

[wank]

 

 

Londoners have I suppose seen their house prices increase with all the immigration, and a good proportion of them work for financial institutions and other parasites.

 

 

 

those parasites subsidise the craphole which is the rest of the country.

 

no, i don't work there.

[Al_U_Card]

Can $ was slightly above parity with US$ a short couple of years ago. We are now at 0.78 or so. Only difference is slightly more expensive fruit and veg prices (a lot come from the US). Export markets are livelier and industry is slightly better off (especially since our GST replaced the manufacturer's sales tax back in the 90's).

 

Britain has a challenge ahead to regain stability but that is likely more in terms of confidence building than any real change to their political/social/industrial status.

 

Catastrophists can't help themselves. They love to see (or imagine) a car crash...

[Cyberyeti]

It went very well, but the Labour leader has said the voters' decision should be respected and he will work to achieve it. Perhaps it's about time he stood up for his beliefs and changed the parliamentary party's policies to be more in line with its key voters - who overwhelmingly are in favour of leaving the EU and abandoning nuclear weapons. I expect the blairites will call for a change of leadership, but I hope the party calls for a change of parliamentarians.

 

I look at the past Labour leadership, who when there was a new treaty that should have triggered a referendum, did what they normally do, get some dodgy legal advice to back their position from a tame lawyer rather than face something awkward. They'd have won a referendum then, and we wouldn't have needed this one.

[PassedOut]

This is another in a long list of events that have unfolded something like this:

 

1. A lot of 'news' stories explain what is going to happen or what is very likely to happen.

 

2. It does not happen.

 

3. A lot of 'news' stories expressing shock about what did not happen.

 

This probably belongs in the pet peeve thread, but this cycle of failure never ceases to irritate me. It doesn't bother me (in fact it's worth a chuckle) when posters say things like "Trump will never win the nomination," because there's no expectation that a poster has any clue about what will happen.

 

But I'd like the news organizations to be a lot more professional...

B-)

[mgoetze]

[Al_U_Card]

Euro stock markets are still down (as are the Far East) but less so than an hour ago.

 

"Much ado about nothing" .... according to the Bard. ;)

[mike777]

If the dollar stays at a 30 year high to the pound it sounds like a good time to buy and visit the British Isle.

[y66]

This is another in a long list of events that have unfolded something like this:

 

1. A lot of 'news' stories explain what is going to happen or what is very likely to happen.

 

2. It does not happen.

 

3. A lot of 'news' stories expressing shock about what did not happen.

 

This probably belongs in the pet peeve thread, but this cycle of failure never ceases to irritate me. It doesn't bother me (in fact it's worth a chuckle) when posters say things like "Trump will never win the nomination," because there's no expectation that a poster has any clue about what will happen.

 

But I'd like the news organizations to be a lot more professional...

B-)

 

I understand Trump's appeal to his core constituency. But I never thought that constituency was big enough for him to win.

 

I understand the appeal of Brexit to people who feel threatened, with some justification, by immigration, expanded trade and the changes to legal systems that are increasingly part of new trade deals. But I never thought this appeal was big enough for Brexit to win.

 

I understand Bernie Sanders' appeal to his constituency. A lot of his ideas appeal to me and I hope they get traction with more people over time. I thought he might win Iowa and New Hampshire and that would be it for him.

 

I read the paper (NYT and WSJ), a few progressive blogs and some water cooler threads (not nearly enough bridge which shows in my game). I also read the NY Review of Books which has an interesting story recently about why Trump's nomination was inevitable. :)

 

News organizations are definitely out of touch with Trump, Sanders and Brexit supporters relative to other constituencies. Maybe this is explained by mgoetze's post. IMO, they are also part of an echo chamber feedback loop that seems to be a factor. Facts and solid reporting aren't as important to news organizations as click counts.

 

David Brooks has been on the road trying to get in touch with "real people". Perhaps he'll start something. He's a good test case. I think he may need more than a few road trips but at least he's trying. I don't know how much of this cherdano has gotten right. He got Trump right from the beginning. He definitely has a way of looking at things from different points of view and less reflexively than I do or than 90+ percent of the media do. Maybe he should start blogging at vox or 538.

 

By the way, I'm betting big on Hillary. If my track record is any indication, this might be the time to start looking at property in Costa Rica or Canada.

[Winstonm]

This is another in a long list of events that have unfolded something like this:

 

1. A lot of 'news' stories explain what is going to happen or what is very likely to happen.

 

2. It does not happen.

 

3. A lot of 'news' stories expressing shock about what did not happen.

 

This probably belongs in the pet peeve thread, but this cycle of failure never ceases to irritate me. It doesn't bother me (in fact it's worth a chuckle) when posters say things like "Trump will never win the nomination," because there's no expectation that a poster has any clue about what will happen.

 

But I'd like the news organizations to be a lot more professional...

B-)

 

I think it unfair to call them "news organizations". They are tattlers and repeaters but certainly not information gatherers.

[mike777]

As I mentioned in my posts, those who posted or wanted to remain seem to discuss the issue in terms of money and with a lack of passion or sense of duty or loyalty to Brussels. One exception was Boris Johnson's father who this morning seemed to talk of Europe and Brussels with true passion and love. He seems to me to be the exception among the Remain voters.

 

OTOH those who were for Exit seemed at the very least very angry and full of resentment towards Brussels and the distant power and control it represented.

[fromageGB]

If the dollar stays at a 30 year high to the pound it sounds like a good time to buy and visit the British Isle.

If we give you a visa ...

[fromageGB]

FTSE now back to where it was 3 days ago. What a huge catastrophe.

The only people to lose are the gamblers and manipulators.

[fromageGB]

So now is the time I shall find out if the French refuse to sell me their cheese or wines, or if Slovakia refuses to sell me their cars. Somehow I doubt it.

[mgoetze]

So now is the time I shall find out if the French refuse to sell me their cheese or wines, or if Slovakia refuses to sell me their cars. Somehow I doubt it.

The question was never whether you would be able to buy those, only how much you would have to pay.

[shyams]

OK, some more random thoughts (mostly to get the frustrations out of my system)

 

1. The next few weeks will re-emphasise one of the flaws of the EU --- their slow, ponderous nature of responding to events.

As a case in point,

1. The Governor for the Bank of England has already clearly declared that BoE will backstop the banks and ensure liquidity.
   We still await a similar response from the ECB. And when Mr Draghi does speak, he will reiterate that he cannot change much without fiscal discipline by the Eurozone countries (i.e. he will dilute the impact of his own assertions of support)
   
2. The British stock markets have taken a smaller hit on day 1 compared to the French, German and other European bourses. So much for their governments allaying the fears of a jittery stock market.
   
3. Regardless of what the BoE said (no Plan B), they will roll out a comprehensive plan to safeguard the economy and protect businesses and GDP growth. They may not find it easy, and may not succeed initially. However, they will be off to a good start. Let's see what the European Commission and the ECB decide on an equivalent for the Eurozone.
   

2. The first reaction of the British politicians has been to talk about restoring calm and talking of unity. Even thought the Scottish First Minister rightly made a demand for a new referendum, she was careful in how she talked and ensured that collectively we come out of this in a proper manner. In contrast, Donald Tusk was quoted as "making an example of Britain" and their willingness to make this a punishing ritual for the UK. They are surely not looking at the big picture here.

 

3. Many UK politicians have gone on record to tell all EU citizens in the UK that nothing will change. If I were to guess (and I have no idea whether I'll be right), EU nationals not in minimum wage jobs (i.e. most EU nationals) in the UK will find their lives and livelihood unaffected. You may have to fill a few documents and spend a couple of hours, but your life and your residence status will probably not change. If anything, I would expect at least one EU country (Portugal perhaps?) to make life hard for British residents wishing to continue residing there.

 

In summary, this time of stress will expose the lack of preparedness within the EU establishment. And that (in itself) is a risk which the financial markets will take note of for a long time.

[WellSpyder]

The next few weeks will re-emphasise one of the flaws of the EU --- their slow, ponderous nature of responding to events.

I found myself thinking about this a couple of days ago. Mr Cameron's response in a similar position with the Scottish referendum of a result apparently too close to call shortly before the vote was to promise the Scottish people more independence within the UK if they voted to stay in. But of course there was no chance the EU could do something similar for the UK, given the policy-making process - even if they wanted to. (With hindsight, perhaps it is a pity they did not do this when Mr Cameron was trying to renegotiate the UK's relationship with Europe before calling the referendum.)

 

Arguably, a good outcome now given the apparent strength of feeling in a number of other countries against the EU as it is, would be for the remaining EU countries to negotiate a revised form of association - maybe we could call it a "European Community" rather than a "European Union"?? - and see whether the UK would like to be part of that club. But I don't see any chance of that happening.

[Vampyr]

As I mentioned in my posts, those who posted or wanted to remain seem to discuss the issue in terms of money and with a lack of passion or sense of duty or loyalty to Brussels.

 

You have mentioned this "duty to Brussels" several times. You seem to have it backwards -- it was they who had a duty to us.

[mike777]

You have mentioned this "duty to Brussels" several times. You seem to have it backwards -- it was they who had a duty to us.

 

 

OK Fair enough, thanks for clarifying. I understand that many, posters included, feel that saying you owe a duty to your country or in this case the European Union is irrelevant or archaic.

 

This is a quote many decades old:

 

"... ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country....."

 

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As far as the duty the EU has to you as a citizen, you are the best judge whether the EU has meet that obligation.

[Vampyr]

OK Fair enough, thanks for clarifying. I understand that many, posters included, feel that saying you owe a duty to your country or in this case the European Union is irrelevant or archaic.

 

This is a quote many decades old:

 

"... ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country....."

 

-----------------

 

 

As far as the duty the EU has to you as a citizen, you are the best judge whether the EU has meet that obligation.

 

Ummm.... the EU is not a country. And Juncker is no Jack Kennedy.