shyams Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Fortunately, all opinion polls indicate that Remain is likely to be the outcome of today's referendum (which reminds me, I still have to vote!) I found this particular snippet very interesting! From the Guardian (see update of 12:04pm) Most of the key figures in the campaign, including David Cameron, Michael Gove, Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage cast their votes early. As he left a polling station in Islington, Corbyn said: “The bookies usually get it right [but] they got it wrong on me big time last year, didn’t they?” Is he suggesting that deep inside he wishes that the Leave campaign wins? His own vote is obviously secret, but I have a sneaky feeling he voted "Leave" :) Edit: Demarcated the Guardian quote clearly from my own comment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Betfair predicts about a 55%-45% win for Remain, but still about a 12% chance for Leave to win. Quite the uncertainty! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Has rampant nationalism ever worked out well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Absolutely crazy movements in the FX markets today (GBP:USD). And there have been nearly zero indications of how voting is actually progressing (although a couple of "informed" opinion pollsters say Remain has grown its lead). Another developing news (an attack on a German cinema complex) could also heighten uncertainty in the voting outcomes. Looks like a crazy roller-coaster evening/night coming up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Absolutely crazy movements in the FX markets today (GBP:USD). And there have been nearly zero indications of how voting is actually progressing (although a couple of "informed" opinion pollsters say Remain has grown its lead). Another developing news (an attack on a German cinema complex) could also heighten uncertainty in the voting outcomes. Looks like a crazy roller-coaster evening/night coming up.More indications of potential stress in the financial markets: * Swiss bank UBS, another of the big six lenders that dominate the $5 trillion a day currency market, warned clients earlier this week it may fail to execute some orders on its electronic trading platform should the referendum affect liquidity or cause extreme volatility.* A note to clients from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the currency market's fifth largest player, warned of a number of service disruptions. "BofAML's electronic trading platforms have volatility controls that may temporarily suspend execution and price streaming in response to rapid and adverse market movements," the communication said.* Reuters reports that Barclays has killed all stop loss orders in its system and won't allow new ones to be placed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted June 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Well, it is make my mind up time. What to do? So many choices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Well, it is make my mind up time. What to do? So many choices. Damn, I was going to tell you, but now it's too late. Well, the pub is still open, have one on me. Perhaps an outsider shouldn't joke. I do wish you all the best. And now that the voting is done, I hope you all stay in. I understand that there are problems, but I hope you stay in. We will know soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 The exit poll was 52-48 remain, could get interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Shocking! Despite most opinion polls indicating a statistically sizable win for Remain, the initial results say Britain is voting to LEAVE! :( GBP is sinking like a rock --- down to 1.43 from 1.50 at 10:00pm when polls closed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Shocking! Despite most opinion polls indicating a statistically sizable win for Remain, the initial results say Britain is voting to LEAVE! :( GBP is sinking like a rock --- down 1.43 from 1.50 at 10:00pm when polls closed. I hope you mean "down TO 1.43" rather than down to 0.07 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 I hope you mean "down TO 1.43" rather than down to 0.07 :)Yes, corrected. Multi-tasking! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 More madness! A BBC reporter in a location expected to vote 50-50 said on live TV that the officials in her area expect 70% votes in favour of leave! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 23, 2016 Report Share Posted June 23, 2016 Was the entire population giving false responses to Opinion Pollsters? Or are the first few results a quirk? Can't decide -- markets going crazy. Someone in the US talking about chances of a 10-year long depression in UK and the Eurozone if there is a Brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 Fortunately, all opinion polls indicate that Remain is likely to be the outcome of today's referendum (which reminds me, I still have to vote!)I found this particular snippet very interesting! From the Guardian (see update of 12:04pm)Most of the key figures in the campaign, including David Cameron, Michael Gove, Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage cast their votes early. As he left a polling station in Islington, Corbyn said: “The bookies usually get it right [but] they got it wrong on me big time last year, didn’t they?”Is he suggesting that deep inside he wishes that the Leave campaign wins? His own vote is obviously secret, but I have a sneaky feeling he voted "Leave" :) If this goes bad, I blame the Labour Leadership! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 I am trying to stay awake late enough to see a reliable result Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 I am trying to stay awake late enough to see a reliable resultI plan to stay awake till 4 am at least. If it is too close to call at 4am, I will brew another pot of coffee! This decision has a HUGE impact on my/our life, but I get only ONE vote. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 I plan to stay awake till 4 am at least. If it is too close to call at 4am, I will brew another pot of coffee! This decision has a HUGE impact on my/our life, but I get only ONE vote. :( Hmm. I normally get up at 4:00 am. That might be a better plan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerclee Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 Betting markets have just placed brexit as being above 50% probability, compared to a low of 29:2 near the end of the US trading day. FTSE 100 futures touching below -5% for the first time today. Edit: Now -6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 At 2:02 am, the betting odds moved in favour of Leave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 ~@@!"!:*!)%%%#### The BBC Chief political commentator just said on TV that most senior campaigners now expect the final result to be LEAVE! That's it! Time to go to bed, and wake up to a "new world" tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 GBP:USD at 1.41 (vs. 1.50 at 10:30pm last night). It's probably going to get much worse in the next couple of hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 OK, here is a digression from the discussion on political/economic "justifications" to a "what-if" discussion. Financial markets have priced in ‘Remain’ outcome in Brexit vote – but what if they are wrong?Link here: (click) The authors are making a very valid point, viz the financial markets have (erroneously) overpriced the likelihood of Remain. The markets' move to an eventual ‘Remain’ result is likely to be positive but muted. Whereas, if the eventual vote is 'Leave', the markets are likely to crash like crazy! As per the article, "... estimates of a rally in sterling to $1.50 if we stay (ie, up 3 cents), while a fall to $1.20 if we leave (down 27 cents from a current $1.47).” Interesting! Hopefully, we won't uncover that financial markets have got it wrong.A very prescient article by the author. At 10pm last night (based on final Opinion polls), Sterling jumped to 1.50 (up approx. 3 cents). A few minutes ago, it crashed below 1.39 and we are only 1/3rd of the way through the counting. More risk to the Sterling to come? Grrrrr! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 If this goes bad, I blame the Labour Leadership! This is it. Labour leaders are pointing fingers are each other for the debacle. They are lining up on TV to blame everyone, including their own colleagues.What a bunch of idiots! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vampyr Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 Did not think this would actually happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onoway Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 Sounds a bit as though someone should have told Cameron not to ask the question unless he would be content with whatever the answer was. Apparently he also didn't think it would happen. It's going to be an interesting time in Europe and in the British Isles for the next while. Good luck to you all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.