EU Brexit thread

[Cyberyeti]

It may be an unpopular view but those "foreigners" are pretty much what has kept the UK economy afloat during this crisis. The economy is still built on house prices just as much as it always has been, perhaps more. Every time there is negative equity this is a disaster for the UK. It may be terrible for individuals trying to get onto the property ladder that house prices did not fall more than they did but it is invaluable on a macro level. "Out of control" will be the result of the economy doing relatively well for as long as the economy remains structured the way it is. Immigration helps to support that process to the extent that if every immigrant left the country tomorrow, it could easily lead to a decline that takes a generation to recover from.

 

But sure, blame the people coming in filling skill shortages and doing the minimum-wage jobs no Brit is willing to do for all that is wrong with the world. Statistically it is very clear that immigrants, particularly those from Eastern Europe and India, benefit the UK economy enormously. If we were to have a logical economic policy after a "Leave" vote it would probably include (close to) free movement from those countries. But one has then to ask, what would we get from an exit other than additional trade tariffs and the ability to squash workers' rights? The former is essentially the reason why the LibDems, CBI and most business leaders are against an exit, the latter the reasoning of the Labour party and most industrial unions.

 

Finally, to Ken, it varies greatly between areas in the UK as to how foreigners are seen. As a teenager I lived with foster parents and the "father" was quite open about having agreed with some of the other men in the sleepy Dorset village that if any black family ever moved in, they would drive them out before any more could arrive. And I would suggest that is not atypical of many traditional Tory areas, even if it is usually less overt. The cities tend to have a different attitude but even there it is often the case that 2 or 3 communities develop that have almost no contact between them. As an example, when I did door-to-door canvassing in Manchester, we almost never knocked an Asian estate.

 

In my view the racism still runs deep and that is certainly a major factor in the coming referendum. The other is related, that many want a return to some idealised Britain before the wars, where we "rule the waves" and have a seat at the top table in world affairs. That notion is nonsense of course but the idea is a powerful one and one that I think the "Leave" camp will need to tap into if they are to mount a successful campaign.

 

I disagree with a lot of this. The UK really is two housing markets. Most of London & the SE (and possibly to a lesser extent some areas of Manchester), and everywhere else. The rampant house price growth is largely confined to the former. A popping of the bubble there would not be a total disaster. Lots of negative equity in the rest of the country would be terrible. The question is to whether you can have the former without the latter.

 

2 different things, filling skill shortages and unskilled immigrants. Real skill shortages when filled by immigrants are a benefit to the UK. Some of them I feel (Bangladeshi curry house chefs for example) are trumped up to get relatives into the country. You could train locals to do this. The unskilled immigrants simply drive wages down to a level that native Brits won't do the job. If the immigrants weren't available, the wages would have to go up. There are some sectors where this would cause issues (care being a prime one).

 

When was your experience in Dorset ? My experience of a sleepy village where my dad lives doesn't tally with this. The most bizarre instance I'd come across was a friend wanted to buy a house in North London and virtually had to pretend he was Jewish to get the estate agent to show him round.

[mike777]

I have been to the UK often and seen lots of land to build on. On top of all of that you can tear down homes, factories, office building and build on that. If the government is driving up the cost of the land in your local area, you may have to change that govt.

 

In any case if we assume all of the land in the entire UK is built on and very expensive, so expensive the cost is "out of control" that sounds like a land bubble. A bubble that sounds like per these posts that is about to burst in areas of the UK.

 

As for London, a truly great world city, it may indeed be too expensive to live in and raise a family. I lived in Los Angels before the great real estate bust. Housing was indeed out of control in any area of the city I would want to live in. I mean homes cost 1M or more. I had to move thousands of miles away and find a new job. Now I live on a tiny street with no sidewalks, no curbs, no street lights and various animals roam my yard eating my garden. That may be the choice many immigrants and others may have to make in the UK if they wish to own a home.

 

------

------

 

Side note on housing costs, I grew up on the South side of Chicago. I am told today you can buy homes on the West and South side of the city for as little as one dollar.

[Vampyr]

I have been to the UK often and seen lots of land to build on.

 

Sure, you could build on all the land there is. Then you would never have a housing crisis because everyone would have moved away from such a miserable place.

 

Have you ever been to the United States? It is hard to find figures for England because it is usually grouped as the UK, but of all the states only NJ is more densely populated than England. Rhode Island may have also been a few years ago, but that state has not been experiencing the massive net migration that England has.

 

There is really, truly, little room to build housing. There are some brownbelt sites that can be redeveloped.

[mike777]

Ok so the immigrants and people who want a single family home with a nice yard and garden that is cheap may have to move out of England to other parts of the UK, got it. They may not get to live In London, got it. So they may have to move to Northern Ireland or northern Scotland, got it. See my post, I moved thousands of miles away.

[Cyberyeti]

Ok so the immigrants and people who want a single family home with a nice yard and garden that is cheap may have to move out of England to other parts of the UK, got it. They may not get to live In London, got it. So they may have to move to Northern Ireland or northern Scotland, got it. See my post, I moved thousands of miles away.

 

Where there are no jobs, this is the problem. Where the jobs are, housing is desperately expensive.

[mike777]

Where there are no jobs, this is the problem. Where the jobs are, housing is desperately expensive.

 

Ahh so the real problem is not a lack of land to build on. got it. The real problem is what economic policy can the UK or local govts pass that will encourage job creation. How can the UK in such places where land is at least cheaper and material for construction is cheaper and labor is cheaper encourage job creation for several million immigrants and middle class adults over the next few years, got it. How can the UK become much much more business friendly in places with "no jobs"?

[Cyberyeti]

Ahh so the real problem is not a lack of land to build on. got it. The real problem is what economic policy can the UK or local govts pass that will encourage job creation. How can the UK in such places where land is at least cheaper and material for construction is cheaper and labor is cheaper encourage job creation for several million immigrants and middle class adults over the next few years, got it. How can the UK become much much more business friendly in places with "no jobs"?

 

It's more complicated than that. We have much more restrictive planning laws than you have in the US. You can't just buy up farmland and build on it. You may not even be able to knock a building used for business down and turn it into houses. You may not be allowed to build anything more than 2 stories high. The planning process is also long and drawn out.

 

Also when most of the money in the country is in London and the south east, the jobs that provide services for people who can pay for them are also there. There have been many attempts to get government departments to move out of London, which are heavily resisted by the people that work there who like London, and a lot of the attempts have been beaten back.

[mike777]

It's more complicated than that. We have much more restrictive planning laws than you have in the US. You can't just buy up farmland and build on it. You may not even be able to knock a building used for business down and turn it into houses. You may not be allowed to build anything more than 2 stories high. The planning process is also long and drawn out.

 

Also when most of the money in the country is in London and the south east, the jobs that provide services for people who can pay for them are also there. There have been many attempts to get government departments to move out of London, which are heavily resisted by the people that work there who like London, and a lot of the attempts have been beaten back.

 

OK thanks for the reply. Based on your post it sounds like government is the problem, not the solution but ok.

 

Just based on your post it sounds like somehow, someway government needs to be much more business friendly to greedy capitalists who want to make lots of money in places where there are no jobs be it in Northern Ireland, northern Scotland or wherever. At some point the margins will shrink in and around London, labor will become more expensive, etc and they may look for greener, greedier pastures. Hopefully local area govts will make policies that attract the capitalists who create the jobs.

[helene_t]

Ahh so the real problem is not a lack of land to build on. got it. The real problem is what economic policy can the UK or local govts pass that will encourage job creation. How can the UK in such places where land is at least cheaper and material for construction is cheaper and labor is cheaper encourage job creation for several million immigrants and middle class adults over the next few years, got it. How can the UK become much much more business friendly in places with "no jobs"?

UK is business friendly enough. The problem is that the salaries and benefits are too low so consumers have no money. So you can't sell anything in the UK.

[Cyberyeti]

OK thanks for the reply. Based on your post it sounds like government is the problem, not the solution but ok.

 

Just based on your post it sounds like somehow, someway government needs to be much more business friendly to greedy capitalists who want to make lots of money in places where there are no jobs be it in Northern Ireland, northern Scotland or wherever. At some point the margins will shrink in and around London, labor will become more expensive, etc and they may look for greener, greedier pastures. Hopefully local area govts will make policies that attract the capitalists who create the jobs.

 

Be careful, NI and Scotland have their own govenments that have power over some of this. London is almost completely service industry based and makes very little. There are some incentives to move away from London, but if a service industry's key asset is its staff, and they don't want to move, what do you do ?

[mike777]

Be careful, NI and Scotland have their own govenments that have power over some of this. London is almost completely service industry based and makes very little. There are some incentives to move away from London, but if a service industry's key asset is its staff, and they don't want to move, what do you do ?

 

OK First off to back up we are told land and housing costs are out of control, only the rich can afford to stay and buy a home and raise a family, so the rich stay. If the rest want to stay and not buy a home and have a family, ok.

 

The rest will need to think about moving or just stay and complain and do nothing.

Same with all the immigrants coming to the United Kingdom.

 

We are told by posters that in NI and Scotland, outside of England, there are no jobs so not sure how that is business friendly.

----

 

BTW I heard yesterday the USA has 60 million immigrants living there.

[Cyberyeti]

OK First off to back up we are told land and housing costs are out of control, only the rich can afford to stay and buy a home and raise a family, so the rich stay. If the rest want to stay and not buy a home and have a family, ok.

 

The rest will need to think about moving or just stay and complain and do nothing.

Same with all the immigrants coming to the United Kingdom.

 

We are told by posters that in NI and Scotland, outside of England, there are no jobs so not sure how that is business friendly.

----

 

BTW I heard yesterday the USA has 60 million immigrants living there.

 

NI is a very different type of community, I don't pretend to know what it's like, and how welcome immigrants feel there.

 

To give you an idea of the difference between London and elsewhere. The area of London where various of my family members lived in what was the suburbs when they moved in in the 50s or 60s, now is part of the urban sprawl, a 2 bed semi with a modest garden is £650K. Where I live, a little over 100 miles away, it's 1/5 to 1/4 of that, and in some northern towns it's a fraction of what mine is. What happens ? People on decent incomes live with their parents till they're 30+ in an attempt to save a deposit, then buy somewhere cheaper. They can only get back to those areas if their parents' house is either sold or inherited. There are cheaper areas of London or you buy outside and commute. People commute daily by train from Doncaster, 180 miles north of London as it is cheaper to pay the mortgage on a house there and pay the train fare, than to buy something equivalent in London.

 

More tax raising powers are in the process of being devolved to Scotland, so they can make it more business friendly, but it is not an attractive place to make stuff as it's a hell of a long way from anywhere, NI is even worse.

[fromageGB]

The Telegraph is saying today that

"Plus, Turkey will get early, visa-free access to Europe by June, and may be waved through into full membership of the EU, which means 75 million Turks will be entitled to move to Basingstoke."

 

I used to live in Basingstoke, but it was smaller in those days. I think we will have to bulldoze it and build those skyscrapers Mike777 wants.

[mgoetze]

As a German national, I have visa-free access to all sorts of countries, e.g. Hong Kong. Having access is not quite the same thing as having a residence permit, though.

[Zelandakh]

The Telegraph is saying today that

"Plus, Turkey will get early, visa-free access to Europe by June, and may be waved through into full membership of the EU, which means 75 million Turks will be entitled to move to Basingstoke."

This is typical of the worst tabloid reporting but done by The Telegraph for extra effect. Few Turks want to move to the UK at all, let alone Basingstoke. Germany is much more convenient, and has both a very strong economy and a larger Turkish community to join. Besides, with 75 million Turks in Basinstoke, we can all move to Istanbul and the beach resorts there since the entire country will be empty. :lol: Rent out your Basingstoke flats and buy half a dozen Turkish hotels! B-)

[Cyberyeti]

As a German national, I have visa-free access to all sorts of countries, e.g. Hong Kong. Having access is not quite the same thing as having a residence permit, though.

 

I believe the Turks will (possibly after a cooldown period) have residency rights all over Europe.

 

They could also pull a stunt I'm slightly surprised the Greeks haven't tried. OK so we have 1.7M Syrians here, we'll fast track their citizenship on the tacit understanding they move out to Northern Europe once they have the right paperwork, and that is the biggest nightmare.

[1eyedjack]

Oh b*gg*r.

 

Donald Trump has just come out in favour of Brexit.

 

I had just about made up my mind. Now I am going to have to change it and vote to stay in.

[1eyedjack]

This is typical of the worst tabloid reporting but done by The Telegraph for extra effect. Few Turks want to move to the UK at all, let alone Basingstoke. Germany is much more convenient, and has both a very strong economy and a larger Turkish community to join. Besides, with 75 million Turks in Basinstoke, we can all move to Istanbul and the beach resorts there since the entire country will be empty. :lol: Rent out your Basingstoke flats and buy half a dozen Turkish hotels! B-)

 

Hmm, ZanziBraai kebab from Just-Eat beckons. Nothing wrong with a bit of competition there :)

[Cyberyeti]

Oh b*gg*r.

 

Donald Trump has just come out in favour of Brexit.

 

I had just about made up my mind. Now I am going to have to change it and vote to stay in.

 

Yeah, but what does he think Brazil is exiting from ?

 

Does he know anything about Europe aside from the fact that he owns a golf course in Scotland (which he may or may not know is in Europe)

[fromageGB]

Yeah, but what does he think Brazil is exiting from ?

Does he know anything about Europe aside from the fact that he owns a golf course in Scotland (which he may or may not know is in Europe)

OK, breathe again. He knows nothing about Europe so we can ignore what he says, and vote leave after all.

[kenberg]

Oh b*gg*r.

 

Donald Trump has just come out in favour of Brexit.

 

I had just about made up my mind. Now I am going to have to change it and vote to stay in.

 

We are all hoping for a Trexit, and the sooner the better. Perhaps, following the example of our own president, David Cameron could come over and explain to Americans how they should vote.

 

Anyway, I wish you the best. I am reflexively of the "Let's all stick together" frame of mind, but I am fully aware of not having any real grasp of the issues.

[fromageGB]

We are all hoping for a Trexit, and the sooner the better.

Nov 9th. No sooner, but no later, either.

[fromageGB]

I am reflexively of the "Let's all stick together" frame of mind, but I am fully aware of not having any real grasp of the issues.

And thus the situation of very many people in this country. Democracy is flawed - there should be an issue awareness questionnaire on every ballot paper, and appropriate pass marks must be achieved for the vote to count. You don't need to be able to write essays on the subjects, so an hour or so should be sufficient time to cast your vote.

[Fluffy]

I read that if UK gets out we can finally close the border and mitigate the plundering Gibraltar is doing to Cadiz. If that is true, it is very wellcome.

[kenberg]

And thus the situation of very many people in this country. Democracy is flawed - there should be an issue awareness questionnaire on every ballot paper, and appropriate pass marks must be achieved for the vote to count. You don't need to be able to write essays on the subjects, so an hour or so should be sufficient time to cast your vote.

 

We often worry about voter suppression efforts here, and in fact there are good historical reasons for this concern. But there are times when it sounds as if people really can't much be bothered with any advance preparation at all. It's "Hey, what shall we do? Go to a movie? Go out for a beer? Oh, I hear there is an election, let's go do that." Maybe it would be ok to suppress that vote. It's true that I am often, or make that usually, not well prepared to vote on who should be the judge of the orphan's court. But I know who is running for the Senate.