Do you science or blast?

[ggwhiz]

Hey all, thanks for the responses, it's been very enlightening. I'm appreciating that blasting may have more merits than I had given it (it certainly worked for our opponents on this hand).

 

The one thing I'm still puzzled about - it seems surprisingly few of you are concerned about North being unbalanced. Is north expected to bid again over 3NT with

Kx Kxxx KQxxxx x,

or other such unbalanced hands? What about with a stiff Major? Or am I overrating the fear that we may belong in 5/6D?

 

Apparently my blast is different from yours as I bid 3nt by north directly over the 2♦ bid.

 

By definition in my partnership it's a balanced weak notrump at the very low end. It's south that can bid again unbalanced, we avoid notrump with singletons most of the time as long as 5 diamonds looks playable. Not worried about missing slam as partner can still try knowing my max is a flat poor 13.

[zillahandp]

Yes I canthink of a 14 pt hand where 6d is a 50/50 shot. Try it your self. Yeti.good name by the way, where do you play?

[Cyberyeti]

Yes I canthink of a 14 pt hand where 6d is a 50/50 shot. Try it your self. Yeti.good name by the way, where do you play?

 

My point exactly, 50/50 is not enough to want to bid a small slam, and partner might well think he has a really good hand in support of diamonds where the slam has next to no play and even 5♦ is not secure (Axxx, Jxx, KQxx, Ax) and can you tell this apart from Ax, xxx, KQxx, AJ10x which is about the only hand where slam is decent, although I'd upgrade it out of 1N as I consider it too good.

 

I play in Norwich, you ?

[PhantomSac]

I'd easily rather be in 5D than a bashed 3N, don't think it's that close.

[tfoerster]

Science leading to a Moysian 4H contract, which makes whenever hearts split 33 (36%) and when you find the queen of diamonds on a 42 trump split (at least 24%).

[rmnka447]

Once 1 ♦ is bid and an inverted strong raise of 2 ♦ is made, 5 ♦ is the better contract. It only requires a 2-2 ♦ break (40%) or a stiff ♦ Q (12.5%) to make. There's no preference at IMPs to settle in NT as in matchpoints. You're better off in the "best" game contract. 3 NT has no play on a ♣ lead unless there's some weird ♣ blockage. 5 ♦ is 52.5% a priori and can't be defeated off the top without an unlikely void some place.

 

I've seen many IMP matches decided where finding a good 5 ♦ contract wins over an iffy 3 NT. Once 3 NT is found after a ♦ fit is established, a ♣ lead may come more into view. The preference is usually for a major lead, but a lead of the other minor is often an alternative if a major lead is unattractive.

 

So it's scientific for me reaching 5 ♦.

 

Unfortunately, with my favorite partner, we'd be in 3 NT. But the auction would be 1 NT (weak NT) - 3 NT.