Green against red it would be fairly easy, but...

[apollo1201]

But you are red against green :angry:, and that is why your valuable comments are welcome.

 

It is the last hand of the first qualificative session (out of 3) of a MatchPoint event. So far, you're above average (53-55% you assess).

 

[hv=pc=n&n=sjt9643hkq874d6c2&d=s&v=n&b=15&a=p1d]133|200[/hv]

 

Do you come in? How?

 

And now, pretending you didn't see my partner's hand...

 

[hv=pc=n&s=s2hjt96djt43cat85&d=s&v=n&b=15&a=p1d2d3n]133|200|3NT came after a long thinking.[/hv]

 

Up to you...

 

For the record, I bid 4♥, and got Xed. Actually, the 3NT bid looked fishy and my minor oppostion should have told me that it would fail (although several pairs bid and made it, I guess not after a brave 2-suited overcall). But I thought I needed no more than Hxxxx KQxxx or Axxxx Axxxx to make, or that maybe I could push them to 4NT or 5m (one pair went down in 4NTX while several went down or were allowed to make in 5♦) which I would double more confidently. But now, I think it was a bad bid (since both contracts are likely to fail, after all partner saw we are red, right?).

 

Nevertheless, the contract is far from hopeless, especially on the ♣K lead. Opponents forgot again to lead 2 round of trumps when in with the ♠A, but unfortunately, ♠ were 4-2 and ♥ 1-3 (West 4144 Qxxx x KQxx KQxx and East 2344 AK Axx Axxx Jxxx). I escaped for down 1 (W called his partner in ♦ by dumping one of his honors so I made my J on the last trick!) but I should have been down 2 the way I played it (i.e. trying for +790 with a friendly break in one of the majors, -1 can be guaranteed by playing safe). -200 was slightly below average.

 

Was there a way to make it?

 

I apologize for this long post and multiple questions but will read your comments with great interest.

[eagles123]

its not enough for a vul vs not michaels imo, 4h with your hand seems perfectly normal, the 3n bidder could just be mucking around on a yarbrough and 5 diamonds or something

[monikrazy]

I prefer 1♠ overcall to michaels. Bidding michaels with less than full opening values Red vs. White is too unwieldy and dangerous for me.

 

 

With the S hand, 4H seems a little optimistic even opposite a full partner. Double seems like the best of some bad choices.

[eagles123]

I think anything other than 4h with the south hand is just wrong, if we double partner can just take us for a random scattering of values, not jt9x in trumps, an outside ace and a ruffing value in spades - we have a really massive hand opposite a sensible vul against not michaels

[Jinksy]

I would bid 2♠ or 3♠ as N, depending on how frisky I was feeling. We're way too weak for Michaels, which consumes little space and gives the opps a blueprint when they inevitably play own the hand.

 

So as S, I'm expecting a much better hand from P and will bid 4♥ without much thought to alternatives.

[nekthen]

For me Michaels is weak or strong. So i bid 1S with opening values. My partner knows not to bid on over 3N. Swap major honours and you will not be taking 3N down.

Action is marginal. The 6th spade swings it for me to bid

[fourdad]

My regular agreements are that Michaels tends to be preemptive. My pd would know not to bid.

[Cyberyeti]

I would bid 2♠ or 3♠ as N, depending on how frisky I was feeling. We're way too weak for Michaels, which consumes little space and gives the opps a blueprint when they inevitably play own the hand.

 

So as S, I'm expecting a much better hand from P and will bid 4♥ without much thought to alternatives.

 

This is style dependent and deserves you defending 3N= when a heart lead would have defeated it. For us, 2♦ is bad/good and is what I'd bid.

[Caitlynne]

I would bid a Michaels 2D overcall of 1D, if available. You have to bid; your side could easily make a game in either major. All partner needs is AKxx in spades and a doubleton heart and game will be virtually cold. Axxx in hearts and any stiff spade honor will also have play. It is uber-timid if not insane not to bid.

 

At IMPs, I would Double 3NT, planning to lead the conventionally agreed card in the heart suit. At MPs, I would Pass, planning to lead the conventionally agreed card in the heart suit.

[Phil]

I would bid a Michaels 2D overcall of 1D, if available. You have to bid; your side could easily make a game in either major. All partner needs is AKxx in spades and a doubleton heart and game will be virtually cold. Axxx in hearts and any stiff spade honor will also have play. It is uber-timid if not insane not to bid.

 

At IMPs, I would Double 3NT, planning to lead the conventionally agreed card in the heart suit. At MPs, I would Pass, planning to lead the conventionally agreed card in the heart suit.

 

If partner has that hand they are raising your overcall but you probably aren't buying the hand anyway.

[Jinksy]

This is style dependent and deserves you defending 3N= when a heart lead would have defeated it. For us, 2♦ is bad/good and is what I'd bid.

 

Then that 'deserves' them being the only pair in the room to successfully pick up the 4-1 trump split in their 6♣ slam.

 

You pays your money and takes your choice, but I would rather just preempt my longest suit and confuse two opponents and one mostly inert partner figure than give them a road map with various low-level options for entry into the auction. I use Michaels only when there's a decent chance that it's our hand.

[Cyberyeti]

Then that 'deserves' them being the only pair in the room to successfully pick up the 4-1 trump split in their 6♣ slam.

 

You pays your money and takes your choice, but I would rather just preempt my longest suit and confuse two opponents and one mostly inert partner figure than give them a road map with various low-level options for entry into the auction. I use Michaels only when there's a decent chance that it's our hand.

 

The honour structure is wrong, partner can easily butcher a trick on the lead by leading a spade from Ax/Kx, I can see much more of a case for 1♠ with KQxxxx, J109xx.

 

I might well pass playing what I play at this vul (we don't play straightforward Michaels, I'd have to bid 3♦, and our simple overcalls show more defence than this), but there's no way I'd bid 2♠.

[Jinksy]

The honour structure is wrong, partner can easily butcher a trick on the lead by leading a spade from Ax/Kx, I can see much more of a case for 1♠ with KQxxxx, J109xx.

 

If partner knows that you preempt aggressively in this position (s)he won't lead from that kind of a holding unless there are no other plausible looking leads to set the contract (and at MPs, even then would prob eschew Kx).

[Cyberyeti]

If partner knows that you preempt aggressively in this position (s)he won't lead from that kind of a holding unless there are no other plausible looking leads to set the contract (and at MPs, even then would prob eschew Kx).

 

Do you preempt really aggressively red v green ? The day pard doesn't lead a spade from Kx is the day you had QJxxxx and an entry.

[Charlie Yu]

2D would be more than enough, shape>points, and my main goal would be to land on a major partscore. 4H is worse than suicidial. 5-4 fit red vs green isn't good enough. If we can make 4H, 3NT would go down a lot, there is no point to bid 4H.

[Jinksy]

Do you preempt really aggressively red v green ? The day pard doesn't lead a spade from Kx is the day you had QJxxxx and an entry.

 

If I have QJxxxx and an entry (and they're playing NT) opposite P's Kx, he's unlikely to have another plausible lead to set the contract.

[Charlie Yu]

I would bid 2♠ or 3♠ as N, depending on how frisky I was feeling. We're way too weak for Michaels, which consumes little space and gives the opps a blueprint when they inevitably play own the hand.

 

So as S, I'm expecting a much better hand from P and will bid 4♥ without much thought to alternatives.

Why would that be too weak for michaels, I thought ppl play Michaels as 0-8 or 16+?

[Jinksy]

People play it as all sorts of ranges - I play it as 0-37, by preference. But you still have to hope to achieve something by bidding it. Opposite a passed hand, unfavourable with both majors, it's unlikely you have a good sac if you're not making anything - which you probably aren't with a hand this weak.

 

Meanwhile, 2♦ is a far less preemptive bid than even 2♠. Not only can they bid 2♥/2♠ artificially, then can X or pass then act later. So you're giving up a lot of info about your hand when P prob can't make any use of it and the opps very likely can.

[Cyberyeti]

If I have QJxxxx and an entry (and they're playing NT) opposite P's Kx, he's unlikely to have another plausible lead to set the contract.

 

He leads from his K10xxxx hoping you have Qx(x) and hoping his card in your suit is an entry, blowing a trick, declarer then knocks out your entry

[eagles123]

People play it as all sorts of ranges - I play it as 0-37, by preference. But you still have to hope to achieve something by bidding it. Opposite a passed hand, unfavourable with both majors, it's unlikely you have a good sac if you're not making anything - which you probably aren't with a hand this weak.

 

Meanwhile, 2♦ is a far less preemptive bid than even 2♠. Not only can they bid 2♥/2♠ artificially, then can X or pass then act later. So you're giving up a lot of info about your hand when P prob can't make any use of it and the opps very likely can.

 

 

-

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=s2hjt96djt43cat85&n=sjt9643hkq874d6c2&d=s&v=n&b=15&a=p1d2d3n(After long thought)]200|200|Over 1♦, I rank

1. 2♠ = Weak

2. Pass = Reveal a minimum of information.

3. 2♦ = Michaels. but, with 6 HCP, at this vulnerability, after your partner has passed, an opponent is likely to declare the final contract -- and knowledge of your shape, will help him in the play.

Over 3N, I rank

1. Double = Penalty. You can bid 4♥ when opponents run.

2. 4♣ = ART. Good ♥ raise.

3. 4♥ = Expecting to make game. [/hv]

[Jinksy]

He leads from his K10xxxx hoping you have Qx(x) and hoping his card in your suit is an entry, blowing a trick, declarer then knocks out your entry

 

Why doesn't the 4th bidder just have AKQ8752 and his P a takeout double while we're at it? Obviously there are risks associated with a 2♠ bid, and P having a second source of tricks with a second outside entry that he's not sure whether to lead hardly seems foremost among them*. Clearly I think the risks of preempting outweigh the rewards.

 

Even if they didn't, Michaels is a terrible bid with all sorts of downsides (many but not all of which I've described), and I rate pass much higher than 2♦, no matter what your nominal range for it is. Do you really want me to give you specific holdings where bidding it here goes badly? How long have you got?

 

* On the hand you give, I'd prefer to just lead partner's suit than try my luck leading away from a broken 6-card holding with a highly dubious entry outside, assuming we're trying to set 3N. And (channelling Gwnn) I realise that means we'll occasionally fail to set the contract when P does have Qx of my suit, JTxxx(x) of his own, and the opps have exactly 8 tricks off the top, before you re-explain that to me like this is the first time I've seen a bridge hand.

[Zelandakh]

Why would that be too weak for michaels, I thought ppl play Michaels as 0-8 or 16+?

I think more common for split-range Michaels is for the lower range to be ~6-11 but the truth is that all-range Michaels is generally more popular on BBF and has been championed by Justin here. A corrollary to that is that the bottom end typically gets raised when red. Indeed, even some split-rangers only play it that way NV and revert to a continuous range V. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages with knock-on effects elsewhere in the system to be felt.

[Jinksy]

One of the big advantages of split-range Michaels is that everyone plays it anyway ('I'll figure out later whether this 12-count is an upgrade to 15 or a downgrade to 10...') :P

[quiddity]

Michaels looks fine to me, 4♥ by South looks fine too.