Jec jan6 - bd 25

[sakuragi]

bd 25

 

E confession:

interesting one.... on what actually happens at the table

on inserting the S8. At the table looks like sillafu has a singleton s. he doesnt have great clubs. he doesnt have hcp. looks like he has singleton s and chip in 3C and there could be play for 3c.

i could not lose a S. 1s + 1c + 2h.

 

though someone correctly point out jec would insert the T with QTx, QTxx.

 

your verdict?

 

 

edit: this post is crap

[gszes]

you have a club and 2h losers and need to hold your spade losers to 0. Any extra undertrick is almost meaningless at imps so concentrate on making your contract. If you decide to play lho for short spades you have to imagine what holding they might have to allow you to make game not just play whimsically to the 8 which is guaranteed to make you lose a spade. You are missing QT653 so spades so the relevant holdings (which will allow you to make 4) are west holding

Q

T

QT

Q6

Q5

Q3

T6

T5

T3

 

note that even if rho has 3/4 spades the odds of rho holding the Q are 4 of the 9 examples. Once you see that

then your best % play is top spade from dummy and low toward your hand which not only works in most of the relevant cases but also any time lho has Qxx trumps (ie your original assumption was wrong)