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Does the lead matter?


Walddk

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[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sk76ha7432dqjck98&s=sa109854hkq5dakcaq]133|200|Scoring: IMP

S: 6S

Lead: ?[/hv]

 

You have bid to a very good 6, the second best slam (6NT is slightly better), but at least you avoided the third best: 6.

 

How should you play trumps if the lead is

 

1. 10

 

2. 6

 

Does it matter at all?

 

Roland

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How should you play trumps if the lead is

 

1. 10

 

2. 6

 

Does it matter at all?

it matters to me... i agree with heart, on a diamond lead i'm not nearly as worried about a ruff

 

i will say that if all 4 trumps are with west i don't see how to shorten myself twice

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The safety play in spades would be to lead spade to the 8 on the first round, picking up any division. Alternately can let the spade 8 ride first round (same deal).

 

On the diamond lead, I will win in hand and let the spade 8 ride. Much more likely spades are 4-0 than hearts 5-0.

 

On the heart lead, there is something of a decision. The big question is whether I think the heart 6 was more likely to be a singleton or from four hearts. Now it could be that LHO is really sneaky and lead the heart six from T986, JT96, or JT86 or the like, but it seems as though top of sequence is the normal lead from those holdings. So if RHO doesn't play the T to the first trick, I think the opening lead is more likely a singleton. Since the lead of a singleton holding no trumps is kind of weird, I'd start with the spade ace (picking up the 4-0 break if opening leader has 4, but not the other way). If RHO does play the HT, I'll start with the spade king. If RHO found the play of HT from JT98 (and has zero trumps) I'll congratulate him. On another note, it depends a little on the auction. If our heart fit was not revealed in the bidding, then the lead of a heart from J986 is a little less likely, and I'd play opening leader for a singleton (and guard against his holding four trumps) regardless of whether RHO puts up the ten.

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If N/S were able to bid and raise hearts on the way to 6, I'd be real suspicious about the lead, but if hearts were unmentioned, its still likely a stiff.

 

As it is, my spots allow me to still take a safety against LHO by laying down the A first.

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With lead, I win in hand (have to), and play x toward dummy. I cover whatever card West follows if he doesn't show out.

 

With x lead, I can't afford to play safe as above because of the danger of a ruff. I will cash A ...

Same to me. But it ooks liek the coorect lead from QJxx Jx becomes a , I've heard of things like this before :).

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Same to me. But it ooks liek the coorect lead from QJxx Jx becomes a , I've heard of things like this before ;).

Not that far away on the auction that may have been on the actual hand (double fit known assuming 2/1):

 

1 - 2

3 - 3

etc.

 

Congratulations to you if you really have that hand, Fluffy. I am on my way down <_<

 

Roland

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Guest Jlall
I recall a master solvers lead problem where several players tried to "psyche" holding a stiff with a potential 2 trump winners so that the declarer would be afraid to safety play
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1. vs diamond lead, I lead to 7, covering if LHO plays high.

 

2. vs heart lead, presumed singleton, I cash K and lead low to 10.

The reason of not cashing Ace and leading to 7 is that I want to kep RHO off lead to give a Heart ruff to west.

I lose when West holds exactly QJxx (= about 8.4 % = 3/5 of the 14% associated to the related 41 split) , but I avoid a ruff when west has any xxx/Hxx in trumps and east has Hx/HH (= about 21.7 % of the times = 16/25 of the 34% percentage associated to the related 3-2 split).

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You still make after cashing the SK if West is precisely 4423.

 

(I'm sure I replied to this thread before with a long analysis of the right line, but it's disappeared.)

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[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sk76ha7432dqjck98&s=sa109854hkq5dakcaq]133|200|Scoring: IMP

S: 6S

Lead: ?[/hv]

 

You have bid to a very good 6, the second best slam (6NT is slightly better), but at least you avoided the third best: 6.

 

How should you play trumps if the lead is

 

1. 10

 

2. 6

 

Does it matter at all?

 

Roland

10 not a big deal, I only have 4 altogether, no risk of ruff. Play small towards the K

 

6 big deal!! can't be top of nothing, can't be doubleton, because assuming they play high-low = doubleton, they are missing the 5432 - this is definately singleton. Cash A right away after winning it in my hand, if it isn't 4-0 split, I play towards my k, if it breaks 2-2, I am free, if not, I have to play hearts out until they ruff.

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