Pass, Double, or Compete?

[xeno123]

From a recent GIB MP tournament:

 

 

[hv=lin=pn|passell,~~M47466,~~M47464,~~M47465|st%7C%7Cmd%7C2S356TQH2KAD35C4JA%2CS29AH58D248TC367Q%2CS8JKH3467TJQD67C2%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%204%7Csv%7Cb%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3H%7Can%7CPreempt%20--%207%2B%20%21H%3B%2010-%20HCP%3B%20%21HQ%3B%206%2B%20total%20points%20%7Cmb%7C4D%7Can%7C6%2B%20%21D%3B%2016-19%20total%20points%20%7Cmb%7C4H%7Can%7C1%2B%20%21H%7Cmb%7C5D%7Can%7C2%2B%20%21D%3B%208-11%20HCP%3B%209-12%20total%20points%20%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cd%7Can%7C1%2B%20%21H%3B%2018%2B%20HCP%3B%2019%2B%20total%20points%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CH4%7C]400|300|[/hv]

 

So Mike Passell made the right decision here to double (Isn't it great when you can compare your decisions to those of a known high-level player?). Out of a field of 20, only 3 doubled and the rest split evenly between competing with 5♥ (down 1) and passing. I was in the (losing) "compete" camp, and I'm looking for the reasoning that Mike used here, and that I evidently failed to use. Or was this just a lucky guess on his part? (I'm of course reminded of a famous golfer who said something along the lines of "It's funny - the more I practice the luckier I get.")

 

My reasoning was that my AK♥ is quite possibly worthless in defense, making it hard to imagine taking two tricks over and above the A♣.

 

I assume that if I had 3 small diamonds instead of 2, I'd be readier to compete because that would increase the chances of a void or singleton in partner's hand. Do people agree with that reasoning?

 

I also assume that if this was IMPS then competing would be the correct decision?

[kenberg]

I might be able to talk myself into a double on the following reasoning(?)

I need everything that is in partner's hand, or at least the stiff club and the spade king, in order to make 4H. Since I bid 4H, I may as well continue my thinking and double.

 

I do not claim this reasoning to be foolproof.

 

Another way to look at is: If pard opened 3H on seven to the Q and out, this will not go well. But he could have more. But probably not enough for 5H.

 

My confidence in any choice would not be high.

 

Or: We have ten hearts, let's say they have nine diamonds, total trump equals 19, LOTT says total trickks =19. If 5H makes, they should be down three in 5D. I am no great believer in LOTT.

[xeno123]

I might be able to talk myself into a double on the following reasoning(?)

I need everything that is in partner's hand, or at least the stiff club and the spade king, in order to make 4H. Since I bid 4H, I may as well continue my thinking and double.

 

I do not claim this reasoning to be foolproof.

 

Another way to look at is: If pard opened 3H on seven to the Q and out, this will not go well. But he could have more. But probably not enough for 5H.

 

My confidence in any choice would not be high.

 

Or: We have ten hearts, let's say they have nine diamonds, total trump equals 19, LOTT says total trickks =19. If 5H makes, they should be down three in 5D. I am no great believer in LOTT.

 

Looking at this more, maybe the key lies in the spade suit. If partner has no honors in spades, then 5♥ will go very badly (unless he is very short in spades of course). So if we assume a spade honor, then we have a decent(?) chance of beating 5♦.

 

What about the double vs. pass decision? How to think about that?

[PhantomSac]

You are a massive underdog to make 5H, I don't understand bidding that. You are basically hoping for partner to be 7-4 and you still might not be making 5H in that case.

 

You are a favorite to beat them. Your AK Of hearts is not worthless, it will take a trick more than half the time. Your ace of clubs is a trick. Partner has opened a vulnerable preempt without the A or K of hearts so he will have a side card. That will combine well with your SQT or CJ for another trick. Even with nothing in clubs your CJ might be a trick (especially if he has the ten).

 

If it is a best hand robot tourney then you know RHO has at most 13 HCP also which matters a little bit (but not a huge amount). Everybody will be in the same position and since you're in my estimate a pretty big favorite (but by no means guaranteed) to beat them, X seems better than pass. The bots are also usually too aggressive in these situations.

[PhantomSac]

What about the double vs. pass decision? How to think about that?

 

Since it's a robot tournament it's a pretty pure problem, everyone else will face the same scenario. Likely it won't matter whether you X or pass compared to the 5H bidders, if 5H is down both will beat that score, and if 5H makes both will probably lose to that score (unless you can get 800 vs 5D but that is very unlikely so lets disregard that). In that case only the doublers and the passers are competing with each other, so if you think you are beating them more than 50 % of the time you should double from a pure matchpoint EV standpoint.

 

I am guessing you did not rate your defensive prospects well as you attempted to save (with an upshot of maybe making on a really good day), but that seems pessimistic. I think you just overlooked that your partner the preemptor will have defensive help for you, they don't have QJ of hearts and out. When you combine that with your holdings I think you should be more optimistic about your chances of beating them.

[fourdad]

I would not consider 5!h...leaving X or pass.... Without any hope of a trump trick I would pass. X may work, what was the score for the pass?

[mgoetze]

The bots are also usually too aggressive in these situations.

Yeah, this is the thing that makes the decision easy. Honestly knowing the bots they could be in a 4-3 fit here.

[xeno123]

I would not consider 5!h...leaving X or pass.... Without any hope of a trump trick I would pass. X may work, what was the score for the pass?

 

Pass produced a good score - 63%

 

So in summary, where I went wrong was not figuring my partner must have some side strength for the vul preempt given I have AK♥, and assuming (wrongly) the opponent bot bidding must be based on highly distributional hands.

 

What about if the scoring was IMPs? Does competing make more sense now?

[fourdad]

Pass produced a good score - 63%

 

So in summary, where I went wrong was not figuring my partner must have some side strength for the vul preempt given I have AK♥, and assuming (wrongly) the opponent bot bidding must be based on highly distributional hands.

 

What about if the scoring was IMPs? Does competing make more sense now?

 

IMNTBHO, where you erred was in, what I call, "telling the same story twice".....your original 4H bid accuarately represented your hand...hence PASS.... the most oft overlooked bid in bridge.

[jogs]

Only guessing. Passell's double says 4♥ is likely to make and he has two diamond losers. Partner please pass with two diamonds and bid 5♥ if you hold a singleton diamond. Singleton rule.

[PhantomSac]

Only guessing. Passell's double says 4♥ is likely to make and he has two diamond losers. Partner please pass with two diamonds and bid 5♥ if you hold a singleton diamond. Singleton rule.

 

Yeah, these pros spend a lot of time discussing various sequences with the bots which give them an edge in situations like this.

[bkvaran]

I might be able to talk myself into a double on the following reasoning(?)

I need everything that is in partner's hand, or at least the stiff club and the spade king, in order to make 4H. Since I bid 4H, I may as well continue my thinking and double.

 

I do not claim this reasoning to be foolproof.

 

Another way to look at is: If pard opened 3H on seven to the Q and out, this will not go well. But he could have more. But probably not enough for 5H.

 

My confidence in any choice would not be high.

 

Or: We have ten hearts, let's say they have nine diamonds, total trump equals 19, LOTT says total trickks =19. If 5H makes, they should be down three in 5D. I am no great believer in LOTT.

 

 

The LOTT provided you with the information you needed, to keep you away from bidding at least, ... Its a 10 +9 deal. Might think IT would be closer to 20, but in real life often 10 tricks in diamonds also... I use The LOTT a lot...AS one of more ways to analyse....

[zillahandp]

Oh dear your bid must be based on partner havng his, where are his sven tricks,? If you assume p is an idiot then pass if not 5hts double suggests no one knows and everyone is guessng

[Lovera]

The LOTT provided you with the information you needed, to keep you away from bidding at least, ... Its a 10 +9 deal. Might think IT would be closer to 20, but in real life often 10 tricks in diamonds also... I use The LOTT a lot...AS one of more ways to analyse....

It is to consider that: E/W have a double fit (than +1 to add). But if bidding is almost right by S with X although partner is a robot that can read differently and that is the why is riskious to think that it has to make a correct bidding to analyze.

[Lovera]

Why this #34 post of mine is not indicated in " Find My Content" ?

[SteveMoe]

Holding ♥AK opposite partner's Vulnerable first seat preempt suggests partner has values in the black suits (give the opponents full credit for their ♦ holding). EW down 1 is probable and down 2 or more possible if partner is anything but 7222. Double is clear and protects our equity from 4♥ if making. Bidding 5♥ cannot be right with my shape and ♥ values. Too likely 9 or 10 tricks are the limit our way. Give me a ♦ void and I would bid 5♥ with little reservation (expecting complimentary shortness in a black suit in partner's hand).

[nige1]

[hv=lin=pn|passell,~~M47466,~~M47464,~~M47465|st%7C%7Cmd%7C2S356TQH2KAD35C4JA%2CS29AH58D248TC367Q%2CS8JKH3467TJQD67C2%2C%7Crh%7C%7Cah%7CBoard%204%7Csv%7Cb%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7C3H%7Can%7CPreempt%20--%207%2B%20%21H%3B%2010-%20HCP%3B%20%21HQ%3B%206%2B%20total%20points%20%7Cmb%7C4D%7Can%7C6%2B%20%21D%3B%2016-19%20total%20points%20%7Cmb%7C4H%7Can%7C1%2B%20%21H%7Cmb%7C5D%7Can%7C2%2B%20%21D%3B%208-11%20HCP%3B%209-12%20total%20points%20%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cd%7Can%7C1%2B%20%21H%3B%2018%2B%20HCP%3B%2019%2B%20total%20points%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cmb%7Cp%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CH4%7C]320|240|

From a recent GIB MP tournament: So Mike Passell made the right decision here to double (Isn't it great when you can compare your decisions to those of a known high-level player?). Out of a field of 20, only 3 doubled and the rest split evenly between competing with 5♥ (down 1) and passing. I was in the (losing) "compete" camp, and I'm looking for the reasoning that Mike used here, and that I evidently failed to use. Or was this just a lucky guess on his part? (I'm of course reminded of a famous golfer who said something along the lines of "It's funny - the more I practice the luckier I get.")My reasoning was that my AK♥ is quite possibly worthless in defense, making it hard to imagine taking two tricks over and above the A♣.I assume that if I had 3 small diamonds instead of 2, I'd be readier to compete because that would increase the chances of a void or singleton in partner's hand. Do people agree with that reasoning? I also assume that if this was IMPS then competing would be the correct decision?[/hv]

I rank

1. Pass = NAT. Hoping for the best.
2. Double = PEN. The expert choice but too brave for me.
3. 5♥ = NAT. But where are the ♠s.